Quote:
Originally Posted by PilgorTheGOAT
I guess the pay bumps are mostly why im asking this. if we fold here and manage to stay alive to the next pay jump we will not realize that much in gains with the possibility of having to put it in with a worse hand at a later time. if we win here we will have a decent bit of stack depth and have a little more to maneuver with. id say 5s+ are here plus suited Ax and KQ, maybe. kind of estimating this as a pretty 50-50 spot. the 50% of the time i lose i go home the other 50% im going to have a decent shot at making a deeper run. is it not fair to assume this is a 50-50 spot because vil is too passive? i believe the only people behind him are the blinds. when i get home ill get the exact stacks and VPiP to see if that would influence our decision here. i think i like the line of a jam however the best as you suggested.
Actually, I should amend my post, I had a brain fart and didn't realize you have only ~14bb.
This has to be a call, you're simply not likely to get a hand as good as this one before you're blinded down an extremely short stack ({AJo} is a top 7% hand; your median outcome is you get a hand this good once every 14 hands, by that time your stack has likely shrunk from 14bb down to ~7-8bb), and villain being ~14bb too means he's jamming a lot wider than I originally thought. I first thought it was for closer to 24bb, and still pretty sure it's a fold at that stack depth but no way for 14bb.
You cant just be open/folding to a jam w/ this hand, and when you decide to open, you do so with the understanding that your EV is based on your
overall line not your final action, so at this point, now that you've decided to open this pot with a minraise, we're talking about the EV of a minraise/call line w/ {AJo} as opposed to merely calling the jam. The call itself is probably neutral EV maybe slightly -EV but taken together w/ the FE you earn by opening, yeah your chosen chain of actions of opening this hand and then calling a jam is +EV but you actually need to follow through and make the call to complete the process. You probably take down the pot 25-50% of the time with your open--hard to say exactly--but you also give villains the luxury of cheaply defending and also picking and choosing which hand they can jam as opposed to having to call a jam which is a huge disadvantage for you. If I were villain in this hand I would personally be mucking hands like {33s through probably 88's, KQs} to an open jam but against your minopen I'd happily do the jamming myself w/ those hands. And now that the pot has been juiced up close to 100% compared to when the hand began (blinds and ante=2.3bb plus your 2bb on top of that), I as the villain who's doing the jamming will extract more EV from the pot with my strategy than you will as someone who's taking an minopen/call line.
So really in this spot we're not talking about whether to call the jam, we're talking about whether to take an open/call line or just open jamming--whichever is highest EV--and I think the clear choice is the latter. If they call your open jam 10% you take down the pot outright like 70% of the time and go to the streets w/ ~44% equity, under those assumptions you yield a pretty massive 2.3bb in EV, it's exploitable, and I seriously doubt you achieve that much EV when you allow villains the option to do the jamming themselves or defend and potentially outplay you. Especially from CO when you're not guaranteed to go to the flop in position. And the wider they call your jam the better it is for you bc then they're adding in hands worse than {AJo} into their calling range, hands you dominate in fact like {KJs, A7s, etc}
Last edited by jl121; 11-12-2018 at 04:40 PM.
