Hi guys,

Played this hand at a 10$ satellite for a $50 MTT ticket on PokerStars

120 left 40 ppl gets the ticket, Hero is well positioned and relatively deep stacked. In hindsight, seems a fold considering risk of losing almost all of a decent stack size at that stage. However, in game was not an easy decision.

What are your thoughts?

PokerStars - 100/200 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 9 players


UTG+1: 17.38 BB
MP: 22.06 BB
Hero (MP+1): 52.39 BB
MP+2: 16.02 BB
CO: 22.44 BB
BTN: 16.51 BB
SB: 9.87 BB
BB: 14.41 BB
UTG: 43.08 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has As Jh
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (8.62 BB, 2 players) 5h Ad Ac
UTG bets 6.04 BB, Hero calls 6.04 BB

Turn : (20.7 BB, 2 players) Qd
UTG bets 10.35 BB, Hero calls 10.35 BB

River : (41.41 BB, 2 players) Td
UTG bets 23.56 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 23.56 BB

UTG shows Ah Ks (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 74%, Flop 80%, Turn 86%)

Hero shows As Jh (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 26%, Flop 20%, Turn 14%)

UTG wins 88.53 BB

Probably folding to a 3x in a sat in that spot. River is also a fold, there's not a single bluff I can find in a 3x UTG-range on that runout

Agree. The river spot is exactly why you don't call pre in the first place.

gd points, thanks guys

I am confused how to calculate someone's range (as well as equity against it) - can you expand?

I also don't understand the approach of saying there isn't a single bluff you can catch. I've seen all manner of villain hands in this type of spot - from solid-but-beat hands like JJ to draws like K10 to total air from a villain desperate to take the pot.

What I meant was: a villain who raises 3x UTG typically (of course far from always) has a pretty strong range that crushes us. If I would cotinue here, I'd much rather 3-b.

As for the second part: Sure, you'll always see bluffs in any given spot. What I meant to say was: I can't fnd a bluff that makes sense, if we assume villain is somewhat solid. The thing is, if we want to call in such spots, villain should either be a) an aggro fish or b) a very good player, who actually has a bluffingrange here. I would argue that spots like these are just severely underbluffed.

As you said, they could for example have KT. But most people don't 3x KT UTG, and if they do, it's KTs, which makes up 3 combos. As for JJ - very few people would barrel turn+river w JJ here, because, well, why would they? And again, they can only have 3 combos.

But most of all: Why would we risk a stack like ours in a satellite in such a measly spot?

Fold and thank OR for making it 3x