I was thinking I should go 1.5x Pot on river but then thought our hand is too strong to turn into a bluff in this spot? myeh not sure - welcome any other comments also

Yatahay Network - 650/1300 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 81.22 BB
Hero (MP): 40.4 BB
MP+1: 55.66 BB
CO: 174.66 BB
BTN: 66.62 BB
SB: 119.19 BB
BB: 38.03 BB
UTG: 70.7 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.52 BB) Hero has Qs Qh
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (6.52 BB, 2 players) Jh Ac 3c
BB checks, Hero bets 2.13 BB, BB calls 2.13 BB

Turn : (10.77 BB, 2 players) 4c
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (10.77 BB, 2 players) Tc
BB checks, Hero checks

Hero shows Qs Qh (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 71%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)

BB shows 7d As (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 29%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)

BB wins 10.77 BB

No need to turn it into a bluff, your hand has enough SD value you can even VB.

QQ definitely in my flop check back range. Hard to get value from worse hands, and he has a bunch of Ax in his range too. Same rationale for not betting the river.

They would be bluffing out those Ax combos in their proposed scenario/question. If we think they're heavy on Ax then we prob should bluff since it's pretty hard for an ace to call down a big river bet on this kind of board prob.

OP I'd prob just try and showdown. I'm not super versed in these kinds of spots tho admittedly. I haven't really ran many solvers to find what bluffs we find on these runouts.

I don't like the cbet here - what does it accomplish ?
As played I would thin value river on a Jx but bluffing ? what better hand do you expect vilain to fold o_O ?

My prefered line here woule be
- XBB if vilain doesn't donk turn
- XCF il vilain donks turn

We should basically not be ever checking this type of flop, our position and villain being in BB. It might even be a bet range spot potentially.

Our cbet gets value from clubs, Jx, QTo, KTo etc. We also should rarely get raised given our range advantage.

We'd be bluffing out Ax combos as I mentioned which comprise a pretty decent chunk of their range. It'll also help us be balanced as it's one of a few bluff combos we can really play this way (QJ/KJ are also valid but it's prob too many combos). We also don't have to bluff 100% frequency with a certain combo. We can mix bluffing and checking it back.

Betting QQ in the hopes of folding out Ax is really thin. It's hard to get people to fold top pair.

Ok so what hands are you playing this way that can bluff instead of QQ?

Did you notice the 4 flush?

Everyone realizes there are 4 clubs right? From the discussion it doesn't seem so.


Seems fine. We do have worse pairs that might be better candidates. You also might be more likely to get an A to fold with a less polarizing bet, where villain might think you have a lot more weaker flushes.

I too am wondering if people realize that there is a 4 flush out there as well reading replies.

What hands would I bet flop? Hands that can fold out better hands and aren't likely to survive showdown. Middle pairs, maybe hands like KQ.

I meant on the river. We prob should be betting near range on this flop given our position and villain defending BB.