Hi guys

Villain is 16/9 in 115 hands

Not sure what to do in this spot. That small mini 3bet is suspicious coming from this tight guy

So should i just call it and hope for a good flop?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1.80 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 125 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37932597

CO: 26,018 (26 bb)
BTN: 15,459 (15.5 bb)
SB: 47,399 (47.4 bb)
BB: 27,527 (27.5 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 24,677 (24.7 bb)
MP1: 20,027 (20 bb)
MP2: 16,277 (16.3 bb)
MP3: 45,798 (45.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9 9
Hero raises to 2,300, 3 folds, CO raises to 5,000 , Hero ?

If effective stack sizes were bigger (35-40bb) I would call the small raise because your implied odds should be fairly decent versus his range when you hit the flop. But you're a bit too shallow IMO to cover all the times you're calling and check folding the flop. Given how tight he appears I would cut 99 loose here. I feel like having 99 in this spot is not much different than 33 because he's not 3betting you with worse pairs than 99.

Yeah that raise is strong from a tight player and you aren't really deep enough to set mine.

Hero snap folds

Getting 5-1 pre vs narrow range, we pretty much have set mine odds id say.

Even if calling is -ev is might be less -ev then r/f

So you going to c/f on T53 flop? If we had more chips i think flatting is fine but set mining with 24 BBs will leave is with a much worse stack size most of the time.

id x/f on 334 flop, if you were to simulate r/f and r/c a million times id say r/c performs fine enough also r/c has heaps of upside and r/f doesn't, dont hate fold pre, its situation dependent I guess.

You have a good point about folding pre.

I am never very sure about playing 77-99 in early positions in a tight table dinamic. In this situations a lot of pots are being taken down by a preflop raise so i always thought you NEED to take these "orphan" blinds to continue to accumulate chips...but i always get cold called by someone and suffer OTF as any broadway flop is awful for us....

So now i am not so sure about this idea. Folding pre a hand like 99 it's a pity and it seems "counter intuitive" (i don't know if this word exists lol) to tighten your opening range when table is already tight

So to resume : do we win more times when we (open pre and everybody folds) + (open pre and villain folds to cbet) than to (open pre and we are raised/cold called with bad flop and we have to fold)?

I don't know if i made a mess of myself with all this stuff haha

I prob wouldn't fold on a T53 flop if I happened to flat pre, but yeah I agree it's an eye roll fold given sizing.