So I pick up 66 from early position. I only have a 14 BB stack. I'm pretty sure that jamming or folding are the only plays in this spot. Folding would be conservative since it is a pocket pair and I should have good fold equity against any hands (plus I can be a favourite in a race). Jamming I think is the right play since there is so much money in the middle from the blinds already. The blind structure is insanely quick, everyone is super short-stacked, and no one is so short that I think it's an ICM disaster to shove here. That being said, I am one of the bigger stacks so maybe this wasn't the right play for me. Thoughts?

888 Poker - 12500/25000 Ante 2500 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 17.77 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 5.66, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 61)
BTN: 18.77 BB (VPIP: 24.66, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 75)
SB: 6.48 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 10.34, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 34)
BB: 6.95 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 71)
UTG: 9.23 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
UTG+1: 14.17 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
Hero (MP): 14.39 BB
MP+1: 16.88 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 17)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 6 6

fold, fold, Hero raises to 14.29 BB and is all-in, fold, CO raises to 17.67 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (30.88 BB, 2 players) 4 4 5

Turn: (30.88 BB, 2 players) 5

River: (30.88 BB, 2 players) 2

CO shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Fives)
(Pre 81%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows 6 6 (Two Pair, Sixes and Fives)
(Pre 19%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
CO wins 30.88 BB

What were the payouts? Your jam is normally correct but with ICM and shorter stacks at the table its tough. I still lean towards jamming but depending on pay jumps maybe not.

Shove is +cEV but you don't do very well against any of the calling ranges behind you - I don't think anyone is calling with 55- or raggy aces so you are at best flipping when called. Against a range of 99+, AQ you're 35% and throwing in pairs down to 77 and AJs hurts you even more (33%) as there are more combos of overpairs than overcards in the additional

So this play will generally end with you taking down a 2.3bb pot and having not greatly affected your standing, and otherwise will quite often end with you out/ crippled - and only occasionally as chip leader after a double up (about half as often as you're out)

I'm folding as a result - frequency of elimination is too great compared to the most likely upside. I'd be more inclined to shove if later position or slightly stronger holding

If payout info was available I think ICM calcs would back this up

ICM suicide. Small pair UTG, final table, 14bb, and 3 stacks sitting under 10bb.

This is even a close fold without ICM considerations.

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