3.30 zoom PKO on Stars. Do you shove here?

PokerStars - 350/700 Ante 85 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 86.09 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
SB: 40.01 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
BB: 69.44 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG: 76.97 BB
UTG+1: 71.43 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP: 48.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (MP+1): 18.96 BB
MP+2: 78.17 BB
CO: 61.68 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

9 players post ante of 0 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.59 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero ???

I don’t but this is not a strong part of my game and I find myself being weaker than I should be and wouldn’t be shocked to find shoving is +EV

In later position with mostly folds in front against 1 raiser, shove it. In this spot, I actually prefer the fold.

When you don't unbold the SB we know he has action involved lol.

Jam seems fine prob in a zoom pko where you're gonna get called lighter and by worse pairs more often. I'm not thrilled but ride it.

Close. I would think that 88 is either at the bottom edges of the value range or the top edges of a bluff range if you are going to have any bluffs here.

It seems as shove to me..
Later checked in HRC and here it is : http://hands.holdemresources.net/?id=1x7tj20qn71iq

33+ A7s+ A5s ATo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs T9s

This seems awfully wide...

It indeed depends on the open range of UTG+1. HRC calculates it automatically.
Here is the range with which 88 shove becomes break-even, according to HRC -
13.1%, 66+ A7s+ A9o+ A6o KJs+ KQo
if UTG+1 opens more than that 88 is profitable.

As you can see in the link I shared, by default HRC gives UTG+1 31.9% open range. This is kind of wide, that's why shove range seems awfully wide

A typical open range average from EP is closer to 10% for the average player in small stakes.

the open range in tournaments is very situational. You can't reduce it to any typical number.

Yes but you can make some fairly safe assumptions based on the typical opponent at this level. And there is no way a typical player is opening anywhere near as wide as 32% from UTG+1.

That does seem to suggest that 88 is a pretty clear fold then.

How exactly is it useful to calculate a shoves profitable if we don't make assumptions about his range? Also as mentioned a 31% UTG+1 is not how I would assume a standard villain plays so why would we ever use that for our calculation?

I am not saying that assumptions about the range are useless. What I am saying is if you want to estimate the opening range in situations like this, there are multiple factors to take into account, at least V's stack size and V's playing style but also tournament and table dynamics. It's is situational.

Fast blinds and PKO, I'd take this spot that's probably slightly -EV. You have 36% against a range of 99+,AJs+,AQo+ that's calling your shove. 18bb, You think you're going to find a better hand than 88? Unlikely. I'd advocate for taking marginal spots like these, more likely to build a large stack to lock up 1st

I'm just going by the results I find in my databases. I know to good players it is very situational. But when we are discussing the "player pool" 90% of them are not good players. And the general player pool has on average 10% here.

Ok guys what do you think opening range of UTG+1 here? I can put it in HRC to calculate the profitability of 88 shove.

I would say 10% is a safe assumption. That's like 66+, ATs+, AT+, KQs+, KQ+. Maybe a bit wider tops.

Interesting, I just ran this through the fold equity calculator and, assuming villain calls my shove with a range of 99+/AJs+/AQ+, my shove is profitable if villain folds about 50% of the time. That means he has to be opening at least 11% or so, which is right about the widest he might be opening. All this discussion and analysis confirms:

1) the spot is very close

2) my shove was marginal at best and opting to preserve my tourney life with a fold wouldn't be wrong at all

I'm probably clicking the auto shove button. With V's stack size he can have a fairly wide range. Wider than some of you give them credit for. If I'm V in this situation and have 71 BBs to play with then I can open with as little as 76s, 97s and so on. I think you shove here and if called hope to have an over pair or a coin flip.

See you could've just read my post and skipped all the hemming and hawing

What I see in this thread is something I have discussed several times in the past. When you are attempting to range an opponent you have to remember that the player pool does not think the same way you do. Just because you have a certain range here, does not mean that the general population (90% of whom have never opened a poker book) will have the range THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO HAVE in this situation.

You have to range opponent on what you think they likely have not what they should have.

In this respect, I have the luxury of playing live, where I have had the chance to talk to many many players. And if I ever discuss a poker book(s), most of the players tell me they never read a poker book, or maybe read one over 10 years ago.

This is why poker can still be profitable. There are still millions of people out there that think they know poker and are willing to plop down money to play. If everyone actually knew poker, we should all just quit now, because then that would make poker a zero sum game and we would all lose out on rake.

This is what I think I was wanting and trying to say but I suck at words.

A 10% opening range seems very nitty to me. There are substantial antes in the pot as well. It’s probably worth running this spot vs various open/calling ranges or at least weighting some of the combos a % of the time.

I’d be surprised if 88 wasn’t a profitable shove the majority of the time here.

A typical 10% range is something like: 66+, ATs+, AT+, KQs, KQ. If you're opening much wider than this from UTG+1, you're opening too wide.

One of the biggest mistakes micro stakes players make is playing too many hands, but most donkeys realize that they should be playing fairly tight from early position. And in zoom tourneys, where you can fast fold through weaker hands, ranges tend to be tighter than what you'd see in a regular type of MTT.

So like I said before, maybe you could go up to 12% or so for his opening range but any wider than that is really loose and you can't assume someone is playing really loose until you have reason to make that assumption.

My typical EP open range is 10.1%:

22+, AJs+, AQ+, and suited connectors 98s+