Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul
In a bvb situation I wouldn't raise that flop with a J, nor would I raise the turn. If you have the nards your best spot for a bluff is on the river. But if we think his range is mostly Jx and missed draws, a river bluff would be pointless.
If I were the SB and had a J, I am probably betting 2/3 or more on the turn. I want to pressure any FDs to fold. If the river bricks, we lead out with a value bet hoping the BB wants to show down with their 8x, but they will fold any missed draws. If a diamond comes, we're in a tough spot if they shove on us. We can't check a diamond on the river because that opens the door for them to jam and rep a flush.
Back to being the Hero, if we raise to 6-700 on the turn, and they call, we can safely fold the river knowing we're likely behind. But if we only call turn, and they lead into us again on the river, now we have a tougher decision to make for the same amount or more chips. Call 219 on the turn, 950 pot on the river, SB is going to lead out with half the pot or more. 700+ chips if we just call. If we raise turn, we get to control our risk and cap it at 700 or so chips. And we have a better idea of where we stand. We can win the pot if he folds turn. If we just call/call, we're crossing our fingers and hoping our 8 is better than his 8.
Our two pair is likely good here, but we need to get more information from V to figure out what they're holding.