Villain is running 55/45 over 33hands

I think it was a good shove. Villain did tank for a while. What you guys think?




Are we also doing something similar with better holdings? Like 99+ AJ+

you could play it the way you played it or bet flop. if called your check/folding turn river.

yes.

you could also bet them and get it in if re-raised. if called and don't hit on turn your check folding AJ.

Don't like this line at all - x/r all in has much more fold equity and we also realise our equity better against better hands in his range

How is AJ a better holding here lol, while I understand what you mean about would you ship a straight set or two pair in this spot and most of the time you would, so it's not a terrible line but the problem is when you're called you're most likely going to be drawing quite thin. Against the type of player you described he will probably go with it if he has any sort of connection to the flop, so in my opinion I would fold and wait for a better spot. Compared to the all the other short stacks at the table you don't necessarily need to take this risk.

Its well played imo. If u donk that you would get folds from hands which raise folds like K6 and just get called mostly by better hands but with this line you dont have to worry about bad turns and you have obviously very good equity even if he calls with with bigger pair. And he might fold better 7x or even 9x hands but hmm okey actually probably this villain wouldnt fold but still would choose the same line.

Easy fold preflop - opening size is 3x!, really easy call otf.
I mean we have 8 outs to straight, 2 outs to set, 3 outs to 2 pairs. In total there are 13 outs and pot odds are 30%. Almost break even call.

So once we've called the flop what do we do when the turn doesn't bring one of our outs and V bets again? - If we're planning to fold we are quite often folding the best hand and definitely folding away equity

it depends on the turn card and bet sizing. Sometimes we call the turn bet as well.

So let's say we get this turn and V bets half pot - you calling?

Or maybe it's a K and he bets? what do you think?

strikes me we're playing a guessing game

anyways the biggest mistake is calling 3x opening preflop. 87o does not have enough equity versus btn range to call

Oh wtf I forgot to say folding pre would be good. But as called I think jamming cant be that bad but also calling is fine.

A thin call pre. It's ok if villain is raising a lot from the button, but we have a lot of better hands to defend against a 3x.

Post flop is well played.

I like your play this hand.

It's OK I guess. No worse hands call, better hands like naked one pair {A9, K9, A7, K7, Q9, Q7, 95} maybe just maybe find a fold but not often. Can probably forget about getting better pairs w/ an accompanying straight draw to fold.

There is definitely merit to jamming to deny equity, but you probably don't successfully do that except against the lowest-equity hands in his range like {AK, AQ}. And while it's obviously OK to GII vs a hand like {QJ}, you can certainly do better than that w/ 29bb to start the hand.

Fold pre for sure. Your hand sucks and it's going to be hard to outplay a massive fish like this villain who can't fold a pair.

If I had to guess w/o doing the math, the shove is maybe marginally +EV. Again, you can do better than that w/ 29bb.

How is this marginal? We have around 40% equity against the calling range - we would need 44% to break even - add in the fold equity and we're well +EV

I agree it's a marginal call pre but once we're here we're pretty happy to gii

We have much less FE than you think, and that 400 basis points of equity needed just to claw ourselves to breakeven (as if breakeven is what we're shooting for anyway) is a high bar to climb. We should never be really happy blasting off w bottom pair no kicker and a draw w a 30bb stack against a $4 field, at best were shrugging our shoulders and embracing the variance in a more or less breakeven spot and that's a huge disservice to our results if we're continually doing that.

Sorry but this is just plain wrong - If we have 40% equity needing 44% to break even -this means every time we are called we are - 2.3BB (approx) in cEV

Every time we get a fold we are +12.7 BB (approx) - So we need about 18% folds to break even - we are getting way more than that ( and if we aren't it means we are getting called by lots of hands that are behind us, so our equity when called is more than 40%)

It's nowhere near a break even spot

Lol, shove is literally printing chips. ~40% equity when called, and winning 1/3 of our stack instantly if he folds.

http://www.power-equilab.com
Board: 9c7sTd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 54.15% 53.06% 1.09% { 8h7c }
MP3 45.85% 44.76% 1.09% { <b>100: </b>66+, AJs-ATs, KJs-KTs, QTs+, JTs, AJo-ATo, KJo, QJo,<b> 21: </b>KQs, KQo }

vs his stack off range, this is not close

I came up with the following result: BTN calls with ~50% of his opening range and it's ahead of us. "Printing money" is too optimistic for this scenario.

http://www.power-equilab.com
Board: T79
Equity Win Tie
BU 52.66% 48.73% 3.93% { JJ+, 66, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8s, 8d8c, 8s8c, 7d7h, KJs, QJs, AhTh, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, JhTh, JsTs, JcTc, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Kd9d, Kh9h, Ks9s, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qs9s, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Th9h, Ts9s, Ad8d, As8s, Ac8c, Kd8d, Ks8s, Kc8c, Qd8d, Qs8s, Qc8c, Jd8d, Js8s, Jc8c, Ts8s, Tc8c, 9d8d, 9s8s, Jd7d, Jh7h, Th7h, 9d7d, 9h7h, 8d7d, Th6h, Ts6s, Tc6c, 9d6d, 9h6h, 9s6s, 8d6d, 8s6s, 8c6c, 7d6d, 7h6h, 9d5d, 9h5h, 9s5s, 8d5d, 8s5s, 8c5c, 8d4d, 8s4s, 8c4c, KJo, QJo, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AsTc, AcTh, AcTs, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ah9d, Ah9s, As9d, As9h, Ac9d, Ac9h, Ac9s, Ad8s, Ad8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah8c, As8d, As8c, Ac8d, Ac8s, KdTh, KdTs, KdTc, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KsTc, KcTh, KcTs, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kh9d, Kh9s, Ks9d, Ks9h, Kc9d, Kc9h, Kc9s, Kd8s, Kd8c, Kh8d, Kh8s, Kh8c, Ks8d, Ks8c, Kc8d, Kc8s, QdTh, QdTs, QdTc, QhTs, QhTc, QsTh, QsTc, QcTh, QcTs, Qd9h, Qd9s, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qs9d, Qs9h, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JsTc, JcTh, JcTs, Jd9h, Jd9s, Jh9d, Jh9s, Js9d, Js9h, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Th9d, Th9s, Ts9d, Ts9h, Tc9d, Tc9h, Tc9s }
BB 47.34% 43.40% 3.93% { 8h7c }

I have great sympathy with the call pre. I'd need to know he's splitting between 3x and 2x to find a fold vs this profile.

^^^ sample size of 33 hands does not really say anything about playing style of this guy. In general it's always better to follow the common sense and simple math than trying to derive unreliable conclusions from neglectable number of observations.

33 hands is not 10 hands, and it is very likely that our opponent is on the loose side as it's kinda unlikely that he's a 15/10 nit that just happened to play half of his last 30 hands.

However that should not be a good argument for defending 78o every time in the BB, especially if he's aggressive, we are just going to be put in a lot of tough spots and we aren't even doing that well against a 50% range.

gl

Cool. Common sense says I defend my BB with a middling connected hand vs a button opener.

He's unlikely to be balanced enough to prevent me making it less profitable than folding plus there are future game benefits plus peace of mind. I'm not gonna be some $4 maniac's spot.