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50bb on a draw

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04-23-2018 , 02:41 PM

III PRO III

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 82

Do we stack off here 50bb on a 15 out draw vs a fishy opponent with 80%+ vpip?

Poker Stars, $4.90 Buy-in (1,000/2,000 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37933634

SB: 43,652 (21.8 bb)
BB: 69,196 (34.6 bb)
UTG+1: 84,160 (42.1 bb)
UTG+2: 35,512 (17.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): 104,160 (52.1 bb)
MP2: 42,944 (21.5 bb)
MP3: 9,808 (4.9 bb)
CO: 229,275 (114.6 bb)
BTN: 18,810 (9.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T

2 folds, Hero raises to 4,000, 2 folds, CO calls 4,000, 3 folds

Flop: (12,800) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 2,000, Hero raises to 6,000, CO raises to 225,075 and is all-in, Hero calls 93,960 and is all-in

Turn: (212,720) 9

(2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (212,720) Q

(2 players, 2 are all-in)

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04-23-2018 , 04:10 PM

meltygrind

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 26

Pots ~20k he jams ~80 more effec, so roughly you gotta call 60k to win 100k.

Youre essentially flipping against his 3betting range OTF.
https://imgur.com/a/anVZbAW

I mean you just gotta call because you put yourself in this position especially if u factor in implied odds, but i woulda just cbet flop instead of x/r, just me, but I'd lead all my sets/two pairs/Ax/and all other draws here. Our range is pretty strong taking the xr line OTF but If we cbet know we have enough stack depth to triple barrel our opponent off some middling showdownable hands like Ax/8x/99-KK/etc

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04-23-2018 , 04:15 PM

III PRO III

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 82

I only checked because opponent was potting all the time whenever checked to him on previous hands, My plan was to check raise a pot bet and get it in, but the hand ended up played in a different way. He did have 78o and i hit my 9 on the turn. 50% still on the turn.

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04-23-2018 , 04:20 PM

meltygrind

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 26

I mean if we know he's going to be bluff potting a good % of the time then we're happy to b/c OTF here. I just don't want to put myself in a situation were my sizing makes me complicit to not receiving the right price against their perceived range

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04-23-2018 , 05:55 PM

WHO_RUNIT

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 422

you had a ****load of outs on the turn.
I think the check raise on flop is okay IF you're planning on gii. And against an opponent like this I'm okay with this play.

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04-23-2018 , 07:57 PM

Strappz

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 656

Mathematically you had what we call a "butt-load" of outs but any time you have more than 12 then you enter the paradox of "too many outs" at which point your equity automatically drops by 25%. You'd be better off going to the other room an punching yourself in the dick.

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04-23-2018 , 09:00 PM

Darth_Maul

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 4,435

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strappz

WTF does this even mean?

By my calculations Hero has to call about 94k to win about 208k, so he needs about 45% equity.

Worse case scenario is villain has something like K7cc, in which case Hero has 35%. Against a set he has 40%. That's against the absolute top of villain's range.

Against A7 or A8 Hero has 48% equity.

If villain stacks off with something like AK here, which is definitely possible given his VPIP and Hero's 50bb stack, Hero is a favorite.

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04-24-2018 , 03:25 PM

Strappz

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 656

It's satire. Too many outs...Tonkaaaa?

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