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45man - raise fold or shove? 45man - raise fold or shove?

06-22-2019 , 07:09 PM
Interested to hear thought on if i should raise fold vs the chip leader here or if its too much to flat out shove to deny equity and opportunity of the big stack to put me in a tough spot

PokerStars - 300/600 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 7,476 (VPIP: 21.46, PFR: 16.72, 3Bet Preflop: 8.77, Hands: 721)
CO: 6,747 (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 7)
BTN: 11,366 (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
SB: 2,125 (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BB: 6,594 (VPIP: 16.76, PFR: 11.98, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 181)
UTG: 5,835 (VPIP: 18.80, PFR: 17.67, 3Bet Preflop: 6.33, Hands: 255)
UTG+1: 5,521 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
MP: 11,010 (VPIP: 26.59, PFR: 7.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 174)
Hero (MP+1): 10,826

9 players post ante of 50, SB posts SB 300, BB posts BB 600

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,350) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, fold, [color=red]Hero ??
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-23-2019 , 07:42 PM
I do not like the shove that much, you got 18BB and almost twice as many chips as half of the field, you do not need to take risks.

A fold also seems too tight to me, just go for the 2.x raise and see what develops. Your samplesize on CO and BTN is small, but if it is a fair representation your range is much stronger than theirs.

And while 99 can be tricky to play indeed, being OOP you will find some easy folds on a lot of flops and still have a decent stack left.
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-24-2019 , 07:16 AM
10k is a really nice stack in the 45 Sng so shoving with 99 into the chipleader is not worth it.

just make a Standard raise 2-3x
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:14 AM
If you are considering raise/fold with 17bb on a 45man FT...
Better it's time to quite poker

Raise/call or shove
I prefer shove (more fold equity and equity denial, and good equity when called)
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-25-2019 , 04:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pouled
If you are considering raise/fold with 17bb on a 45man FT...
Better it's time to quite poker

Raise/call or shove
I prefer shove (more fold equity and equity denial, and good equity when called)
well he is at the FT with 7 Player payed and 3rd in Chips, really close to #2 and #1 in Chips. also there is a huge gap to the rest of the field with around 10bb and a short stack with <4bb

therefor i would rather raise fold (to chipleader jam) than shove. sure 99 is a nice Hand to shove, but with stacks and ICM it would not be worth it because if he calls we are in Trouble.
i'm Pretty sure raising is the Standard Play here
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-25-2019 , 08:31 AM
Even if calling as wide as 8% (I don't think many V's has that many guts in this stakes).
You have

92% fold equity
8 % when called, you have around 20-50% of equity
Let's say you have 33%, 8/3= 2.66
The shove line its profitable in 94.66 % of the time. Actually a little least because players yet to act can pick up a top 3% hand. But you are not going to raise /fold vs short stackers

Against a raise /fold line when smart villains put you the tear with hand like KTs AJo QJs for ex when you have to fold your equity... That is a bad trade

Keep raise folding top 5 % hands
That's good poker bro
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-26-2019 , 07:36 AM
I see your point but in my experience of say 90mans and 180mans the Regs and usually aggressive players are going to jump on situations like this and shove over my open significantly wider than the KTs AJo QJs so that is why i presumed it is better to shove
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-26-2019 , 08:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pouled
Even if calling as wide as 8% (I don't think many V's has that many guts in this stakes).
You have

92% fold equity
8 % when called, you have around 20-50% of equity
Let's say you have 33%, 8/3= 2.66
The shove line its profitable in 94.66 % of the time. Actually a little least because players yet to act can pick up a top 3% hand. But you are not going to raise /fold vs short stackers

Against a raise /fold line when smart villains put you the tear with hand like KTs AJo QJs for ex when you have to fold your equity... That is a bad trade

Keep raise folding top 5 % hands
That's good poker bro
thanks for sharing your thoughts. i Always considered r/f would be better than shoving here.
I will Keep that in mind for my next tournaments
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-26-2019 , 11:24 AM
Nooooo!!! You don't understand sarcasm...

Don't ever raise fold a top 5% hand
It's BAD

Shove is the only option
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote
06-27-2019 , 03:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pouled
Nooooo!!! You don't understand sarcasm...

Don't ever raise fold a top 5% hand
It's BAD

Shove is the only option

I understand the sarcasm in the last sentence, don't worry.

like I said, i thought r/f would be better but now I will consider your Input when I get in those situations and shove or raise call
45man - raise fold or shove? Quote

      
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