**Hand**

9T

**Stack**

33k, approx 40bb.

**Blinds**

400 /800/100

**Position**

BB

**Notes / Reads**

Villain has just late reg in, has had less than 10 hands, played zero so far. 20 mins til rego closes.

**Preflop**

Utg raises 2.2bb, folds to hero in BB who calls.

**Flop**

K A Q (pot= 5.8bb)

UTG bets 2.1bb (approx 8bb behind).

Hero ???

How do we play this vs an EP short stack? Does a jam ever get any folds? Do we care if it doesn't? If we flat, aren't we just calling an inevitable turn jam anyway?

Call and smash the nuts on the turn. Jamming is meh given this just smashes villain's range.

I'm pretty happy to jam that flop. Effective stack is 25% of your stack and you have plenty of outs against his best hands. His range is almost irrelevant because you're drawing against all his value.

Sure but the reason we want to jam draws is for a tangible sense of value when we expect them to fold sometimes. I think if we had just a single over card and it wasn't this with Axss being possible too then it's better. I realize there aren't that many combos but if villain isn't that wide then do we really wanna jam flop and not just take our implied odds (we're being laid 4-1 directly on the flop).

Effective stack is 10bb, there's no room to dick around postflop. Are you going to call here and just fold to a turn brick when he shoves? There's no point defending T9s if you're not just going to get it in on a decent flop like this with an SPR<2.

This isn't that decent of a flop tho for bb vs utg, we're always going to be behind on it and it's hard for villain to have bluffs. Plus villain can have every set, we have 0 sets also, we do have JTo that defends I suppose. So I guess you could maybe jam 9Ts/AJo/ATo/KQo combos but then what just calls? Or are you just jamming your entire continue range? Are you jamming Qx/Kx here? If you're opting to only jam then fine but that hurts your Qx/Kx combos (which you'll have a lot of) and it's good to have hands that can change the nuts on the turn when calling, esp for a good price.

We have 38% equity vs a range of QQ+, ATs+, AJo+, KQ, I think thats a reasonable utg range from a short stack that continues on this board. Keep in mind that villain will also have a 12bb shove range most likely so some of those combos can be removed.

Will you ever get a fold? Maybe. Villain may go for a range cbet here which will include TT and JJ or something like KJs or QJs, but his sizing is a little big for a range bet.

If you choose the call flop/fold turn line, you are basically risking 2.1bb to win 16bb with ~23% equity, if we assume that he is always shoving turn. And if he isnt, our lower implied odds when we hit is negated by the extra equity we realize when doesn't.

By shoving, you are risking 10bb to win 16bb with 38% equity.

So .23(16) - .77(2.1) = 2bb gained by calling flop/folding turn

vs .38(16) - .62(10) = -.12bb gained by stacking off and getting called.

You need close to 25% fold equity to make shoving better than calling flop and folding turn. This honestly may just be a spot where both lines are ~equal ev so you want to choose the line that protects the rest of your range, which in this case if probably the call line. UTG's range just crushes our range so we might not want a shoving range at all here.

if you call flop you have to fold to a turn shove because you will need 29% equity and a flush draw + gutshot only has 25% on the river. Maybe if you turn a pair a call becomes breakeven.

Thanks, ledn that's pretty much how I was feeling. The fact that we need such large fold equity on the flop, makes the flop jam not great. Especially against a late reg short stack.

You can call or fold flop. I would probably call, BUT, He could have AJs, beating your flush as well.

Strange that he opened and didn't jam pre.