Quote:
Originally Posted by girlieburger
river is random diamond i misswrote it
ah ok.
The jam is good if you think villain will fold over 71% of the time, assuming the stacks are 80k effective on the river. You would have to be pretty certain that villain would never check flushes on the river and is capable of folding Ax. I think that in the right circumstances this is actually an interesting play since villain will have a lot of Ax that might call a smaller bet, but fold to an overbet. They could easily level themselves into thinking you would only do this with a flush in a bounty mtt. It looks like you shouldn't have too many bluffs, either, since most of the draws will get there on a diamond river.
We also have decent showdown value, especially against more aggressive players - players who are capable of opening wide pre, cbetting a lot, capable of barrelling turns to put pressure on our 5x, 2x, draws, etc. I also might check back vs. trickier players who I have history with. These players can check-raise more flushes, realizing I go for thin value, etc.
So, I guess my decision comes down to player dynamics, specific stats, etc.
Last edited by RPMcMurphy; 12-16-2017 at 12:26 AM.