more than 50BB deep

SB raises 2.2x we flat Kd6c because we cover him for a bounty

Flop Ad2d5s he cbets 30% and we float with the nutflushdraw blocker

Turn Ad2d5sKc he bets half pot and by now I dont think my hand is any good he might have AA or AK/AQ but I hope to get folds on a d river

River is the 6d

Pot is like 32k I jam for 80k hoping to get a fold
another reason for the overbet is that I cover him for a bounty


Is this a good play ?

I would approach it like this:

50bb deep-

SB raises 2.2x we flat Kd6c because we are getting a good price, we are in position, the sb is capable of opening a lot of hands here, Kx is ahead of a lot of hands he would steal with, and we cover him for a bounty.

Flop Ad 2d 5s, he cbets 30% and we float because SB has a high CB%, he might have a low turn barrel % (he shuts down on turns a lot), we can have the best hand and we have backdoors that can potentially semibluff on the turn and bluff river.

Turn Ad 2d 5s Kc he bets half pot and we call because we can have the best hand with 2nd pair, we get a reasonable price, he barrels the turn a lot, it's a good card for him to barrel, etc.

River is the 6d - Pot is 32k. When he checks river, we now bet for value because our rivered two pair is likely the best hand. Overbet jamming will probably only be called by better hands. His likely holding is a one pair hand, so we should bet an amount that extracts the most value from Ax/Kx, etc. Sometimes he will check some better hands like A2, A5, etc. but those hands will not raise us, so we shouldn't worry about being check-raised too often.

we only have one pair

Did you misclick the turn or river card in the original post?

river is random diamond i misswrote it

ah ok.

The jam is good if you think villain will fold over 71% of the time, assuming the stacks are 80k effective on the river. You would have to be pretty certain that villain would never check flushes on the river and is capable of folding Ax. I think that in the right circumstances this is actually an interesting play since villain will have a lot of Ax that might call a smaller bet, but fold to an overbet. They could easily level themselves into thinking you would only do this with a flush in a bounty mtt. It looks like you shouldn't have too many bluffs, either, since most of the draws will get there on a diamond river.

We also have decent showdown value, especially against more aggressive players - players who are capable of opening wide pre, cbetting a lot, capable of barrelling turns to put pressure on our 5x, 2x, draws, etc. I also might check back vs. trickier players who I have history with. These players can check-raise more flushes, realizing I go for thin value, etc.

So, I guess my decision comes down to player dynamics, specific stats, etc.

I dont use any tracking software. the only thing we know about villain is that he is from mexico. which hands should call an overbet ?

He will probably call you with 2 pair +. Some players might fold their weaker two pairs. Other players might hero call with AQ, etc. A lot of this will depend on exactly which diamond card hit the river and what kind of player type they are.

In order for a shove to be profitable, he has to fold over 71% of the time. That is a lot, so without any reads, you are probably better off showing down your pair of kings and hoping you're good.