Unsure about this spot. I have hud stats on villain and he is playing 40/40/50 for vp/pr/3b over last 20 hands. I ran equity against his 40% range and im 50% with my 4s, but this seems like a bad call from me

Yatahay Network - 125/250 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 22.35 BB
BB: 65.72 BB
UTG: 36.14 BB
UTG+1: 70.82 BB
Hero (MP): 22.2 BB
MP+1: 17.07 BB
MP+2: 23.67 BB
CO: 22.28 BB
BTN: 21.33 BB

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has 4 4

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 65.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 19.58 BB and is all-in, fold

Flop: (48.25 BB, 2 players) 5 K J

Turn: (48.25 BB, 2 players) 6

River: (48.25 BB, 2 players) T

BB shows 9 9 (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 81%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows 4 4 (One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 19%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
BB wins 48.25 BB

These baby pairs are trouble with this stack size. If you had 44 on the button and someone in MP raised 2.5x you wouldn’t be getting the price to call and try to flop a set, so that tells you that opening with it is also not great, unless you’re doing to raise/fold, making it a pure bluff.

As for villain’s 40 percent range, that doesn’t mean he’s shoving all 40 percent. I suspect you’re not getting the right price against a more realistic range from him.

Also, 20 hands isn’t nearly enough to be confident that he’s that loose. The difference between 40 pct PFR and 20 pct is 4 hands. He could just have gotten good cards or been raising the button in those 20 hands.

Yeah my plan was to raise this as a pure bluff and fold to a 3bet, I think I got caught up though in villains loose shove so thats why I made the call, but this should definitely be a fold. What do you think a call would be. 77+?

Pot odds here dictate you need to win 41 pct to break even and since you want an edge you should look for about 43 pct (or more if there are payout implications).

If he’s shoving 15 pct (down to KTo, Q9s, 77, etc)....
55+, A7s+, ATo+, KQo, KJs

If he’s shoving 10 pct (which goes down to AJo, K9s, JTs, etc)...
88+, AJo+, AJs

A shove from the BB, which can just defend is often strong. People seem to be calling reshoves awfully light lately. This has to be near the bottom of you raising range.

Why were you trying to steal the blinds with a maniac big stack in the BB? I would fold initially with him in the BB, and maybe otherwise.

Fold pre the first time around, event without a maniac in the blinds. Fold now as well

Yep ^

Sucks when u get to this perfect storm of stack size/position/small pair and you have to pitch it like a nit but it’s the only way

Yeah, this seems like an arbitrary fold the first time.