Blinds 350/700 with antes 70, mid-stages of a $20 MTT

V (CO): 17k
Hero (BTN): 26k

V opens to 1400, Hero flats ATcc, heads up

Flop (4410): J 4 2
V checks, Hero bets 1600, V calls

Turn (7610): 3
V checks, Hero bets 4500

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Preflop: I was 50/50 between flatting and 3betting, but considering my player pool is slightly sticky pre, I opted to flat and outplay V in position.

Flop: Once he doesn't cbet, I figure I can put pressure by starting to bet, nothing too big as it's a dry flop. Planning to barrel favorable turns.

Turn: Kind of 50/50 if this turn is super favorable or not but still feel, a lot of his weaker holdings will succumb to pressure.

Thoughts?

The turn card isn't what you're repping there when you flat on the button and then lead the turn. You're basically repping Jx or hands like 88-TT. I like the play here because villain would have bet QQ-AA and most likely AJ/KJ on that flop. The small flop bet may entice a float OOP but the larger turn on a card that doesn't help his range will put lots of pressure on him and will get folds from plenty of better hands. Well played.

I'll take the opposite opinion: I don't like a turn barrel here. You didn't pick up any equity turning a club and you barely picked up any with the gutter. The 3h doesn't help your range at all.

Without a club, K, or Q I don't think you can barrel again here.

V has all kinds of middle pairs in his range along with AK/AQ. I think you're repping too thin.

Obviously it's always better to barrel a turn card that increases your equity and/or improves your perceived range but that isn't always necessary. If a villain shifts to a passive line, like we see here, sometimes they'll x/c the flop just to see what happens and then fold to a turn bet - especially when hero uses sizing like he did here.

What range do you give villain when he raises pre and then x/calls a small bet on that flop?

I can only speak for myself but I'm check/calling all of my pairs 66-TT and maybe AK/AQ depending on the player.

Okay, and how many of those hands would you call this turn bet, knowing you'll be OOP on the river and possibly facing a third barrel? You'd probably dump AK/AQ and probably the lower pairs to the turn bet, which means you're only continuing with perhaps 88-TT...and you'll have a very hard timing calling unimproved on the river if Hero bets again.

The only hands hero can triple barrel here realistically based on preflop action that is beating a hand like 99 are a bunch of hands that should have been 3b pre. I'd feel pretty comfortable calling a 3rd barrel. Sure, sometimes after a triple barrel you see hands like AXs and small sets.

If I think Hero is capable, I'm definitely calling a 3rd barrel with 99 on most rivers.

Hands like QJs/JTs/J9s could certainly call on the BTN, even KJs too. But you're right that the other flop cards aren't ideal for a triple barrel because hero won't be calling on the BTN with any cards that connect with the 42. He could have those sets in his range but he's probably play it a bit slower.

If your last statement is true, why does the turn even matter? We can put pressure of 55-TT to get them off the hand, no?

A lot of middle pairs, Ax and some other broadways given the price. And all of these hands will face a very hard time OTT in my opinion.

Players in my field won't think like that. They'll just fear Jx and lay down any pair below that facing multiple barrels.

Results: V check/shoved turn, and Hero folded.

What do we think V had??

Too many hands he has for value.

If he's opening 24+% from CO with 25bb, i'd imagine all overpairs, AJ,
(Sets if he isn't folding or jamming <66 pre from CO) A5s.

Potentially semi-bluffing with AQhh/AKhh?

Villain is way more likely to Cbet most hands that are interested in getting stacks in. Villains checking range is usually weak against barrels and since you are asking whether AT is a 2 barrel here it would be bad plan to check stronger than optimal range against you. Solvers check more good hands in these spots than humans, but they still need to c-call a lot of weak stuff vs. second barrel to not lose equity against this second barrel so this is good spot to barrel against humans. It is also good spot to NOT pot control as Hero if Hero would have JT, QJ or KJ since AQ and AK got more equity OTT and big barrel would force them to fold a lot of equity or make speculative calls. Since our Ax flop barrels got more equity it makes more sense to continue barreling them than hand like KTs,KQ,9Ts - Obviously we sometimes have flushdraws but given stack depth we might want to check some of them, because bet-folding them would hurt us. As played it seems villain had one of the unlikely slow played combos. Solvers would not have villain reraising set OTT, but given that ace has gutshot I think many players would reshove sets here (mostly 33,JJ as played 33 seems good shove as played since it doesn't block our value range), as well as some slowplayed AJ+ and combo draws.

Dunno what the remaining stacks are but I might jam preflop depending on sb/bb stacks. The barrel seems fine too.

Don't think he ever does this with TP or a marginal hand. I'd put his range at sets (especially a slowplayed JJ) or something like AKhh/AQhh.

why are we betting flop when we have sdv?

I don't think our showdown value is *that* good here. I wanna bet flop cause I have a lot of turns I wanna barrel on like clubs/5/3/A/K/Q

I think a flop bet here is a lot better as a cbet as the opener or coming in as a raise. I'm not crazy about the flop bet here, either, to be honest.

Our range is stronger to call a raise than to open the co though. Also it should look stronger when we bet into the PFR as well.

Yeah, but if our flat range on the BTN pre is strong than the CO open, that kind of agrees with wowsooted that our hand has SDV, doesn't it?

I don't think a bet on the flop is terrible, I just don't know if I think it's the best option. Maybe I'm wrong, and it is, but I think there's strong merits to checking behind, too. I think ATo on this flop is either your worst checkable SDV hand or it's just outside of being checkable, so checking it or betting it here is probably the biggest decision of the hand.

Our range being stronger doesn't mean we have SDV though. We have a hand with some SDV that works really well to balance our betting range and has enough equity to double barrel. ATo has no turns it call really barrel with so it's a lot different.