Villian was new to the table. No real reads. Pre was misclick meant to be bigger, I almost timed out as was away from table didn't notice the limp.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2 Buy-in (900/1,800 blinds, 225 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: 167,076 (92.8 bb)
UTG+1: 32,580 (18.1 bb)
UTG+2: 76,865 (42.7 bb)
MP1: 52,041 (28.9 bb)
Hero (MP2): 91,624 (50.9 bb)
MP3: 50,237 (27.9 bb)
CO: 85,240 (47.4 bb)
BTN: 48,349 (26.9 bb)
SB: 145,639 (80.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A K
UTG+1 calls 1,800, 2 folds, Hero raises to 3,600, MP3 folds, CO calls 3,600, 2 folds, BB calls 1,800, UTG+1 calls 1,800

Flop: (17,325) 7 4 K (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 5,600, CO folds, BB calls 5,600, UTG+1 folds

Turn: (28,525) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 12,800, BB calls 12,800

River: (54,125) 5 (2 players)
BB bets 144,851 and is all-in, Hero ?

I’m always calling here. If you lose, bad luck. Pre make sure not to mess up and make mistakes. This hand is much more difficult to play 4 handed vs heads up of against 2 opponents.

I’m prolly raising to 5400-7200 pre and calling off if utg+1 rips. The sizing of 3600 is terrible. Misclick so not your fault but you gotta make sure you don’t misclick in tournies. I feel you should also bet a little more in flip. Maybe like 7k-8.5k.

I know it sucks if you call and lose but in a $2 mtt, players are prolly ripping weaker ks and other hands you have beat.

So which boat did he show up with?

EZ call, man. I don't think he's bluffing much and he does have all the boats from the BB, but you can't fold AK here. He can show up with too many worse Kx and occasional spazzes in a $2mtt.

I don't see how hero beats anything here. River overshoves are polarized ranges, usually missed draws or monsters. And there is no draw that missed. The likelihood of villain shoving a worse King or even worse is pretty close to zero. I'm not calling off my stack here.

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In a $2 mtt, he can easily have worse kings here, some random hands, and a few busted draws like 65o, Ac4c, 6c3c, 6c4c, etc. The BB range is going to be wider than usual. He has a 93bb stack and he's getting a sick price in the BB in a multiway pot. He'll show up with a lot of missed club combos as well as every suited Kx and most offsuit Kx. I agree that his bet is very polarized, but he has more bluffs than you think and he might be value-cutting himself with worse Kings. I also occasionally see people spazz out with some weird two pairs here in low buy ins.

I see this sentiment pop up frequently in the forums and I don't understand it. Sure it's possible he might show up with anything here but you can't assume this is how the typical $2 player would play it. Make decisions based on the rule, not the exception. Calling off in spots like this simply because "it's $2 lolz" is an expensive way to play.

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Even if I eliminate the spazz factor (which I know can happen based on plenty of experience), he still has bluffs and worse Kx.

I could see KQ KJ doing this. Not sure about any other hands though. Can we get the results? Did you call?

I doubt he would post this if he wasn't beat.

I still think a lot of Kx would "value jam" this river thinking that it's possible OP could check back some two pair hands like AA, QQ, JJ, etc.

I just ran some numbers. Hero needs 36% based on the pot odds alone (not factoring in extra equity for tourney life risk).

Even if we give villain some bluffs here we don't have anywhere near the odds. Against a range of 44/55/77, 63/86, KQ/KJ/K8s+, 65cc/A4cc/53cc, we only get 24%.

So you have to credit villain with a crapload of bluffs just to make this close.

Addendum: even if we give villain all suited Kings you only get up to 27%.

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He has every Kx. He's got over 90bb and is getting almost 8:1 on a call pre (usually more since it's likely the other limper will flat), so he should be calling most if not all Kx here. To think he's folding KTo, K2s-K7s is absurd.

Even if I'm generous and give villain a range of 77, 55-44, K2s+, K7o+, 86, 63s for value (not including weaker KXo hands and AK) and a bluff range of just 65s (I'll even take out 65o), Ac4c, 5c4c, 5c3c (with no spazz range like any 7x and most 4x, mid pairs, etc.) then:

https://gyazo.com/7088a27b95ceb383ccc113398ae0930a

If I add in more bluffs, just 65o even, then we are a favorite. You can also take out a lot of Kx from his range and still have the right price to call.

I don't think the typical V has anything like as many Kx hands as you are saying - why is V calling a small turn bet and raising an apparently innocuous river with Kx? I do sometimes see something random in this kind of spot but not enough - It's a fold for me

Hmm, I'm going to have to play around with it when I get home. There's something screwy about the results I'm getting with my phone app, probably because it doesn't deal with complex ranges very well.

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Even if you take out most of the Kx from "value betting" (he donk lead overbet jams the river), he should still have enough bluffs and worse value bets to make this call ok.

Even if we take out non FH Kx - K2o-K9o, K2s-K6s, add some of his best bluffs (leaving quite a few bluffs out), we're still getting decent price.

https://gyazo.com/19aa5a831eeb1c9ea7010e4edd3b8678

He basically has to never be bluffing here to fold IMO

I couldn't get this hand off my mind for the last two hours while I was out lol. The more I think about it, the more this line looks like some spazzy bluff. I'm probably calling even wider than originally would, so def. calling AKs

Thanks for the responses guy. I tank called and villain had 36 off lol. I just didn't think a villain at $2 level plays 44 or 77 like this too often, most people raise flop or turn. I figured it was most likely k5 suited or a random bluff/ worse king.

If they're going to show up with 63o, then I'm certain they will show up with heaps of bluffs on the river. If the river is a brick, say 2h, you think villain is checking 100% of the time on the river??

And again, the overbet bluff is probably the optimal sizing when he bluffs. It pressures AA/QQ/JJ/TT, etc etc. Most people in this thread were folding AK ffs!!!

I think everyone advocating a fold is crazy . They are basically saying they are only calling with 3 combos of 77. Even fish will pick up on this and start exploiting the sht out of you.

We can agree to disagree, I think it's a lot closer than you do because you're willing to put more bluffs in villain's range than I am.

The size of the flop bet was part of the problem, imo. Much more difficult to put villains on ranges when you're giving 5:1 odds on a flop call in a multiway pot.

I'd snap it in and expect to see a worse king pretty often, occasional random punts and then some boats. If he has a boat then so be it.

I'd also bet larger on the flop. Their calling ranges won't change much when you bet 8k vs 5.5k, so you can just be unbalanced and bet larger with value hands and get more in on turns and rivers.

The flop bet is pretty standard. I don't mind betting a little bigger if there are call stations in the hand like the BB.

But, c'mon man, you think this guy has no bluffs and a couple worse kings in his range? So, you're only calling with 77 here? Thats unbelievably exploitable.

more otf, you priced him in, heads up smaller sizing is proly fine but multiway you have to protect your hand

I didn't say no bluffs, I said I don't think he has enough bluffs to make it a profitable call. It's not like he just needs a few worse hands to tip the scales; you actually have to give him credit for a pretty decent number of worse kings and busted draws to get the equity you need.

Tbh I'd probably end up calling too, and then I'd curse myself for calling in such a marginal spot. But that's really the difference in our views of the hand: you seem to see it as an easy call, where I think it's much more marginal.

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People usually overbet bluff river polarized as we know. I think if villain had Kx they would probably x/c river. Question is are we making money over time by calling this line? There could be some Kx that do this, but not enough of the time. There could be some missed draws, but on this particular board there weren't any draws that didn't miss that river card. I just don't think we see enough bluffs over time vs a donk shove 3x the pot OTR to think that we are good here often enough for it to be profitable. They called 2 streets and then jammed basically one of the only draw cards that hit OTR. It's an interesting hand and one that in game I probably call as well, but the more I look at it (obv I've seen the result) the more it makes sense.

People are bluffing here way more than you think. If villain is getting to river with 63o, the absolute bottom of his range, do you think he's never bluffing this on bricks? There are also plenty of low pairs with very little showdown value considering hero's range, combo club draws that missed, and some random hands, etc. Not to mention the times he bets all of his Kx. He can easily think he has the nuts on the turn and is trapping. Since a lot of hero's 2 barrel range will check back on the river (even hands as strong as AA can't go for 3 streets on the river), it makes sense he goes for "value" on the river or decides to bluff/spazz the river, both as an overbet.

If you are all only calling with 77/44, he can shove his entire range on the river. Also, the river only hits a couple gutshots, and 63o won't usually be in most players' ranges, so it's not that scary. Worrying about the 5 is being a bit results oriented.

Also, he's not overshoving 3x pot on the river. He's shoving around 70k eff into 54k, so it's not a massive overbet.