Quote:
Originally Posted by oldgoat
you think that V can get to the river with T9s ( 1 combo) but discount most of the combos?
I can see that value range that beats us should be small (although some players are loose enough to call very weak draws to a small flop bet) but the value range that we beat seems smaller - how many players would play 44 or 33 or flopped 2 pair this way - or AJ?? I could get behind A9 ( but only 3 combos) possibly AT - but even there it would be odd to overshove with the potential for either of you to have a flush. The bluffing range for many players is non-existent.
Sorry, I meant to say "ATs comes to mind" not T9s.
I haven't plugged this into an equilator yet, but I'd imagine the value and bluff ranges are close at worst. Against the combined range, we should have good equity.
As for how many players would play a set or strong Ax this way? Or what kind of bluff range a villain can have here? OP gives no reads other than that MP1 is a massive whale, and this is a $10 tourney. Slowplays and illogical bluffs are commonplace. Players overvalue top pair strong kicker when deep, turn random hands into bluffs, chase very weak draws.
This flop texture is an ideal slowplay spot for 33 and 44. Villain could have been taking a check/call check/raise line, and when he didn't get it, went for maximum value on the river. He might have also turned or rivered 2pair and wants value, believing that the BDF is unlikely.
I think folding sets in these situations is a losing play long term.
Again, I haven't crunched any numbers, this is just my 2c
Last edited by Oscar86; 08-24-2018 at 03:43 PM.