Villain has been really aggressive for the past while, since he got a big stack, putting pressure on me. Short stack is pretty aggressive too.

Payouts:


1st: 773

2nd: 558

3rd: 403

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (6,000/12,000 blinds, 1,500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: 186,354 (15.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): 536,451 (44.7 bb)
SB: 726,195 (60.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6 7
Hero calls 12,000, SB completes, BB checks

Flop: (40,500) 6 3 7 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 21,870, SB raises to 78,887, BB folds, Hero calls 57,017

Turn: (198,274) 9 (2 players)
SB bets 115,599, Hero calls 115,599

River: (429,472) Q (2 players)
SB bets 518,209 and is all-in,

River seems like a bluff, but I would raise on the turn. Also I would raise preflop.

V nice score

i understand why you're limping the button when BB has a nice squeeze stack but I'm still not sure having a button limping range is a good idea

Once we flop top 2 against said V I'm happy to gii ICM or not. I like the flat of his flop raise to keep the bluffs in but prob shoving the turn - he prob has quite a few hands that are behind but have equity by the turn and I'd rather not give him the chance to realise it.

Even so - we're flatting to induce right? so we have to call

Don't think i will bee folding two pair here, not scared of diamonds due to how vil has played the hand.

DO we either get it in on turn or just call shove river. Least we have position.

If v has been somewhat aggressive, i think we can discount sets somewhat as I think he will raise pre, only limp I would see is 33 but 66,77 aggro guy is most often raising.

Im not too clued up on btn limping strategy, you obv had a good reason for it so I won't flame you there, I just think this is an excellent hand to have at the bottom of our raising range otb, I would mostly raise but don't hate limping at all.

I think this is an ICM fold otr, population is underbluffing here imo. Its just an absolute nightmare when he has 54 which is well within his limping range or 33 when we can fold river and still be 2nd in chips. I would play flop and turn as you did but I don't see how hes firing a worse hand for value otr.. worse 2p are mostly checking river. Only hand we beat that makes sense is a busted draw like 89 turning into a bluff but this has good SDV so no need to bluff, maybe 9T as hes aggro, but again SDV. I would find it really hard to fold to LAG in game but think its proly the right play.

You forgot about flush draw.

yes your right, my bad sorry I was up late. That does help river call camp

Jamming turn is best exploitatively
But then your calldown range become weaker which is relevant 3handed at ft however it's quite unique preflop/flop spot.

Gross as played.
If he could c/r flop w/ lots of BDs (4x-7x) it's a fold but some people can bluff even worst busted FDs like this applying ICM pressure.

It's unlikely Villain has Qx or a worse 2 pair. Would you call with A9o?

Surely you have better hands in your range on the river to defend than the 153rd nuts. It seems like a pretty easy fold.

Anyone know how to calculate ICM in this spot? How much equity do we need to make a call here?


Played with some ranges and got ~53% equity against an optimistic range that shoves every 98, most cc combos and A4o-A5o A8o with a club otr and only has 85 and T8 with FD or BDFD otf.

Taking away 98 and offsuit aces drops our equity under 40%. cEv we only need a little over 30%, but ICM is obviously important here.

Then population in these tournaments might bet a huge % of draws ott, but often follow through otr much less when they have 0% equity when called. Thinnish valueshoves are also somewhat rare.

Folding still leaves us with 328k, which is quite significantly more than shortest stack.