We are in the close to the money at this point. But with this tournament we want to build a stack so that we can get those big juicy bounties. We are 8 handed
Hero has 340K
Villain has 400K (No significant reads)
Blinds 4k/8K/8K
Preflop Hero has A Q in MP
3 folds, We raise to 18K, 2 folds, SB calls, BB raises to 65K, Hero calls, sb folds

Flop: 6 2 2
BB bets 40K, hero calls,

Turn: 5
BB checks, Hero shoves ~235K

Love it, hate it? I think maybe I should have just jammed it preflop.

What are you trying to achieve here? What range do you think cbets then checks?

You say this is a bluff, but i cant see what better hands fold? AK only? That might still call when you have lot of backdoors that float flop and theres not much value that takes this line, Id have hard time folding AK.

I would think reads would matter greatly here as an old guy 3bing here vs a young 20 something is much different. I would just check the turn and see a river - I don't think you're folding 99+, I think you get AK to fold some % of the time but could be 50/50.

The 3-bet by BB was smallish so I would always call. I have rarely 4 bet jammed with AQ (when I did I was called down by AK) but I have to say it is probably a good idea against GTOish guys who 3 bet a lot in position. Because we have position here I wouldn't jam.

If BB has AK and would call this shove then I think BB would most likely shove himself first in. So I think BB will fold AK here. Unless it is specifically AK

We are repping a pair like 77-JJ or even QQ/66/55 but I think BB can have AA/KK a lot here and check the turn trying to act weak and then would jam the river making it look like a bluff. So I probably wouldn't be bluffing here. Still it could work and I probably don't bluff enough.

I would prefer shoving here if we had A or Q which would block BB's flush draw possibilities.

In general though I would fold to the flop bet specifically because we have no BD draws. Or if we are going to bluff at some point then I would jam here making it look like we have JJ or TT or even QQ. But waiting to see if Villain bets the turn is also a good idea.

Agreed.

I don't think this is a spot to worry about that. I think if villain has a flush draw they just jam the turn. Check/calling off a flush draw like this with one to come would be pretty bad. (And in the scenario where they do, if they want to check/call off AsJs or KsQs on the turn, that's a good result for you.)

On balance I probably just check back since I don't expect to fold out anything worse. But I do think some kind of read on villain to assess their 3-betting range matters.

Have been in spots at this depth and late stages where I’ve correctly 5-bet shoved AQo coz reads, but I’ve never taken your line here readless and sry mate because I know you’re a great live mtter but I groaned at every street.

Waiting for the ‘I was the villain’ revelation

On reflection, I actually think you are right.

If villain has A (or any high spade really) then it looks more like we aren't bluffing with a flush draw so we should get more folds.

I agree. You actually have showdown value against almost his entire bluff range so this seems like a standard check and prepare to bluff catch river.

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I have showdown value, but given the pot is large, we are playing a guessing game on the river. What do we do when a K or J or a T come on the river? The only river card that we are really happy to see is a Q and probably an A.

Result: Villain folded quickly

That's what bluff catching is. If you have a read that villain overbluffs or underbluffs, you can feel more confident one way or the other. But otherwise it's a decision based on the pot odds and the equity you think you have based on his value/bluff combos.

The problem with your play on the turn is you basically fold all his worse hands and get called by hands that have you way behind.

Easy check turn. Nt sure wat we are trying to accomplish

I am trying to deny the villain some equity. Although we are likely ahead (the villain might have small pp), the pot is now very large and we have an SPR of very close to 1. The river is going to be difficult to play unless it is a brick. What do I do a J, K, or T river, if villain bets small?

I remember a WSOP main event a few years ago where a guy at a final table didn't shove all in on the turn when he was slightly ahead with a pair on a few different hands. He lost every hand when his opponent bluffed large on the river (first to act) because he was folding the river.

The difference between the person who makes the last bet in a hand and the guy who doesn't is roughly pot per hand. Balanced aggressors always do better than crying callers.

The problem with bluffing in situations like this (and the one I was called out for here similarly bluffing all in on a turn) is that if you get called you are basically crippled or knocked out. And as was pointed out you basically fold out all worse hands and get called by hands that have you way behind. But what isn't explicit is that there are some hands that you are behind that will fold if your story is plausible. In my case on a QTXJ board as I had raised pre-flop I could have AK and unless the other player has a monster will fold. He actually called with a double draw which because he was behind was a terrible call given the value bluff sizing (and he lost).

In this case AK will fold virtually every time. Because the story here is that Hero has 99-JJ because he called the flop bet. Given the turn bet size and pot size Hero should be bluffing only 1/3 the time. And if I was playing against Hero there would be no question in my mind that he was balanced (GTO oriented). So is it worth it at this point to call? Not really unless it was clear that Hero overbluffs. I'm going to go out on a limb and say from all of his posts that it is not the case. So yes, villain can have AA/KK and is planning to shove the river hoping for a call. But the likelihood of that is somewhat mixed given villain could just as easily have shoved the turn with TT+.

The biggest reason to bluff on the turn is so that we don't have to deal with a river bet from Villain. Assuming villain is relatively competent and balanced he may bluff the river some of the time but more of the time will have a better hand. Hero didn't have a read on Villain so we don't know what he would do but Hero did manage to avoid having to deal with it.

I would never find myself in this situation on the turn because I wouldn't have called the flop bet (unless my read on villain was he had a wide 3-bet range). But if I was in this situation, if I hadn't taken any time to think about it on the turn, jamming is not a bad idea. I hope my hands get the message even if when it happens my mind doesn't have the courage...

This is a very different spot than the one you describe.

Hero is risking his tourney life close to the bubble by shoving 6x pot on the turn as a bluff on a board that doesn't connect with his range at all, against a villain who 3b out of the BB. And this is because he's scared of facing a river bet in a 40k pot when he has 235k behind?

Hero is betting virtually exactly the pot size on the turn.

Preflop raise was 18k called by SB who folded to 65k bet by villain. So before flop there was 156k in the pot. Flop bet by villain was 40k so 236k in pot before turn.

Hero shoved 235k on the turn. In my opinion this is a perfect sizing for a bluff shove because he will likely double up 2/3 of the time or more.

And saying that it doesn't connect with Hero's range at all disregards how any pair is in good shape vs AQ+/AJs and any random SC's and other AXs villain might have.

Villain has a pair probably less than half the time he 3 bets and would IMO mostly be betting his pair on the turn. Especially if it is not AA/KK and we block AA.

Apologies, completely misread the live HH. I agree the sizing is good for a bluff.

Villain's range is where we disagree. We're close to the bubble in a mystery bounty and Hero has opened off 30-ish bb from HJ into at least one stack that has him covered. Do you really think BB is 3-betting random SC's and AXs there? It's very relevant that this is a mystery bounty, which greatly incentivizes BB to play pots with stacks he covers. He should be defending like 100% here and there is basically no reason for him to 3b at all. He doesn't want Hero to fold. All this leads me to believe he's much more likely to be playing straightforwardly and 3-betting the top of a linear range, hoping to get called by Hero's strong range. If that's the case, his range is heavily weighted towards hands that won't fold to Hero's turn shove. You're basically targeting exactly AK with that bluff.

Preflop and flop looks fine but the turn jam is horrible, there is no jamming here, with any hand. You can checkback AQ or just bet small for value (and call allin if needed).

I don't really disagree with what you are saying. Because Hero doesn't have a specific read I would discount anything but JJ+/AK/AQs (maybe) as a BB 3-bet here.

I do think Hero is targeting AK with his bluff and I also think that Villain has AK a lot of the time because he didn't bet/jam the turn. What is hard to know after the fact is why Villain folded quickly. That doesn't matter as far as analyzing what he 3-bet with (because while it might mean he opened wider than we thought we had no reason to believe he was doing that at the time), but it does mean that the story behind Hero's bluff was highly believable (i.e., he has a pair and isn't afraid of a call from hands like AK/TT)