I think we might see people call too often here across a ton of rivers.

Perhaps because they fold too much on the turn?

I have decently credible reasons to believe that generally that's what happens--hat they'll fold probably at least half the time on the turn, but potentially as little as 30% of the time on the river.

__________________________________________________ ______________________________

BTN (150bb) Open 2bb
BB (150bb) 3b 10bb
BTN Calls

So imagine a few different runouts where OOP makes a smallish (but not too small) cbet like 3/8th pot, then a large-ish (but not too large) barrel say 80% pot. Say the turn SPR is 3.5 and the river SPR is 1.


1. [8d4s3s][Ad][2c] Is it possible we see IP have too few 8x on the river (instead, they just dump turn), thereby giving him mostly Ax on the river?

2. [8c6d2s][5d][Tc] Is it possible we see him dump too much 8x OTT (perhaps even folding some 99-JJ too?) Do we ever get JJ-QQ to fold river? So that perhaps IP has not enough folds (8x and worse) and calls too often with catchers (QQ, JJ)? How many BB in EV do you think QQ wins as a call for IP, if OOP finds a lot of air like 9X and 7x without a diamond?

3. [Js4d3s][8c][3d] Is IP generally folding ALL 99-TT and a ton of his pairs (think A4s, 54s, A3s and others) on the turn? How often do we get him off a jack on the river, or A4s, A8s, K8s? Is IP setting himself up to call too often due to not having enough weaker pairs and/or calling too much Jx?

If I'm IP and I'm facing this strong line, leaving a river pot size bet, I basically make my decision on the turn, yeah, I don't change my mind after the river bricked.

So as you said, I probably fold too much turn (as if we were playing for stacks already).

An important and related question is--how often do you expect to get tripled into, and how often do you expect OOP to check river?

I think you are correct that people will call a lot of rivers here once they have called the turn. I think people will fold more than half the time on the turn with pairs. But may call most of the time with a pair and a draw.

So hand 3 4Xss will call more often than 99-TT.

Hand 1 is different because of the A on the turn because AK/AQ just got there. So more folds here without draws.

Hand 2 if 99-QQ calls the turn they are rarely folding the river.

Hand 3 IP will call a lot with Jx on the river because for the most part OOP won't have Jx type hands.

Unless of course OOP is a GTO guy or just super agro all the time. In which case the matador strategy of calling down will win a lot (or at least will be +EV).

I do expect to get tripled into a lot (like 80%+) by players who have QQ+ and even JJ with no overcards on the board. And they will balance a little with AK/AQ type hands, often with hands that are flush draws (either on the flop or on the turn). However, unless the player is solid GTO or an aggro maniac I do expect to see some players check on the river when they have missed (like 66% or so). I have even seen this done with KK. The problem is that many players realize that they won't get called on the river anyway and are trying to induce a bluff to maximize their return.

So I expect OOP to check the river more with JJ+ when the flop is wet and missed than on dry flops where IP likely has a pair. Similarly I expect more river bluff 3 barrels with a missed hand with no flush blockers on hands with wet flops than dry flops.