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Two Pair Late Game Spot Two Pair Late Game Spot

11-22-2023 , 12:05 PM
We are playing an ACR $30k guarantee, $55 buy in. Money bubble broke a while ago, but we still have 33 players left, current payout is about $130, next pay jump is at 27 for $150. I've just been moved to the table, so little info on the two Vs in this hand. UTG +1 has 35 bbs; HJ has 38 bbs; I have 29 bbs. I am the BB.

OTTH

UTG +1 raises to 2 bbs; HJ flats; I call with A; T; should I be raising here at some frequency? I feel I have to fold to any 3! (where I might have good equity) and stack sizes are awkward; anyhow definitely interested if I should be doing something different pf.

Flop (8 bbs): T 6 3; I check; UTG +1 bets 1.8 bbs; HJ flats; I flat. HJ's flat scares me on this very dry board; but my hand is now way too strong to bail. My hand does need some protection vs all K,Q,J hands both Vs can have. Should I x/r here? I might have to call a shove. Don't know.

Turn (13.4 bbs) A. Checked around. I thought A had to nail at least one V's range; and was looking to x/r shove here. Should I lead?

River (13.4 bbs) Q I lead 4.2 bbs -- sizing ok here? (I struggle OOP multiway on sizing in spots like these). UTG +1 folds; HJ shoves. Me? I think HJ has KJs that had a backdoor on flop for value, and maybe 66 or 33; also maybe has A6s and A3s suited given I don't have too many better value hands in my range (I do have KJs though). Don't think he plays AQ this way (maybe TT, but I have that heavily blocked). Struggling to find bluffs, but my hand is very polarized so a good V may be bluffing pretty wide.

All thoughts are welcome.
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11-22-2023 , 01:18 PM
I think your description is awesome.

If I am villain I would guess you are bluffing a decent % of the time. I doubt you would do this with a single pair as showdown value would lead to a check/call. Thing is not many hands you would have called the flop with though 98/87/97/54/75/42s/52s/74s are all possibilities. So I guess you do have a decent bluffing range. A bigger problem is that you have a lot of hands that would play this way that are very strong like AT/A6/A3/AQ/Q6s/Q3s

As played I think I would have also checked the turn intending to c/r jam (unless HJ raises and then it gets interesting). Some hands UTG+1 has can get checked like JJ-KK/JTs/QTs/KTs but if UTG+1 was bluffing this is a good turn to continue the bluff. Normally my sizing would be about 9 bb's but here if I was betting I would make it 8 bb's because at 9 bb's I would rather jam.

HJ can't have AQ because he would have bet the turn. Similarly with TT/33/66/A3s/A6s. So its KJ or a bluff. Or somehow he has QQ. So about 19 possible combos that beat you and its not clear he would always be calling preflop or on the flop with KJo. There just aren't many hands that he would bluff with and literally only QT that might do this from a value standpoint that you beat. If he is bold aggro and has 98s/87s/97s/75s/54s its a possibility (but then again if he is bold/aggro he might have 3-bet pre-flop with these types of hands). So 20 hands that he could call and then bluff with. I think I fold the river, though when playing I often get knocked out with two pair.
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11-22-2023 , 02:18 PM
I think need to go river bigger, we don't have any one pair hands value betting with this action so small 'block' bet doesn't really make sense,

I think we have to call now , we look very weak, think HJ can have Q10 and shove for value here
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11-22-2023 , 04:36 PM
I don´t think leading turn is bad by any means in this spot. If your oponnent has AK/AQ/AJ they will have a hard time folding, even to an overbet. Plus your hand in somewhat need of protection from the river K/Q/J since your opponents range will make a straight often on that run out. As played though I don´t think there is much difference from calling or folding if you don´t have a specific read on the player.
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11-23-2023 , 11:08 AM
Lead turn would be really bad
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11-23-2023 , 10:25 PM
Yeap this is not a good spot for a turn lead. Typically turn leads are good as the non-flop aggressor when you have a range advantage and your opponents' range contains few bluffs and many hands that will check back but can call a bet, neither of which is true here. This ace doesn't favour the majority of your range (while your actual hand improved, the impact on your range is what is important), and both players have a bunch of worse hands they should be betting for value and plenty of bluffs.
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11-24-2023 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubblebust
my hand is very polarized
It is? You bet less than 1/3 pot on the river.
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11-24-2023 , 01:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
It is? You bet less than 1/3 pot on the river.
So I do struggle with sizing in these situations. But I don't think I'm betting any amount into two players with this board and action from bb without 2 pair + or air.
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11-24-2023 , 01:41 PM
Fine preflop. ATo would be a good squeeze candidate against a later open, but you have to respect the UTG+1 open here absent of stats on the player.

I like flop and turn play.

To me KJ feels the most likely here in this bizarre situation. Almost none of his other value holdings make sense. Sets and A6/A3 should always be betting when closing action. If you were in the HJ and he was in the BB, very different situation. But here, I doubt he would wait till the river to start building a pot with a set. KJ you unblock, it makes sense both as a call pre (I would fold it offsuit and call it suited against an UTG+1 raise), the flop call with 2 overs, the turn check, and the river jam.

I suppose V could have one of the 8 combos of QT and be going for value. But that seems less likely. I personally might just call with QT as it's hard to imagine worse hands paying off a raise. Pure bluffs also seem unlikely. If he had some bluff like 45, wouldn't he have started pushing with it earlier? Checking two streets and then suddenly bluffing all in feels bizarre. This feels like a hand that just came in on the river. Statistically that's most likely to be KJ. I don't hate either option but lean toward folding.
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11-26-2023 , 12:48 AM
Flat or 3-bet pre are both fine. I do like 3-bet here at some frequency because we should get AJo to fold which is a huge win.

I like x/r flop, we should be ok getting in all the money with TPTK at this SPR. HJ mostly lacks overpairs (although could have JJ some % of the time) and UTG's range should be relatively wide. The fact we're multiway *may* lead us to flat more often, but in a lot of ways the fact we're multiway makes me want to just try to get money in now.

Turn lead isn't a thing.

River sizing is fine. I think there's some argument for jam as we should be able to stack AJ/AK/QT, but a lot of our villain's range that we're targeting is going to be Tx. (Especially multiway where we shouldn't see as many Ax peels - if we think there's Ax and Qx in HJ's range then I like going bigger.) When we get jammed on it sucks, but I don't think we can fold as we're going to have some one-pair Ax hands and bluffs that we should fold before we fold AT.
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11-27-2023 , 03:31 PM
Thanks for all the responses.

Anyhow:

Spoiler:
I tanked almost my whole time bank on the jam, and ultimately called since I was at the very top of my range and needed some calling range. V had a very oddly played 66.
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11-27-2023 , 06:31 PM
I am playing Cash Games. How is Tourneys working out four you?
Certainly good! Right!
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11-27-2023 , 06:51 PM
I am still positive on my ROI (16%), but it has slid a but it has slid a bunch since it's been a while since I have been in the top 3 -- was at 40% ROI. I play very big variance events though, typically more than 300 entrants, and often more than 1000.
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12-17-2023 , 11:08 AM
Excellent write up with good advice from others.

Looking at hand from a bird's-eye, less mathematical view, you slow played a pretty big hand on turn, villain slow played a pretty big hand on the flop with a 1/4 pot bet, turn check and went little crazy on river with his shove after utg folds. As you purposely kept the pot small and then fireworks on the river, I would consider folding my non-nutted hand to follow my "keep the pot small" plan.

Some people slow play then try to get all that value they "missed" on river- that's what this looks like to me
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12-17-2023 , 04:41 PM
This is a really complex hand and I feel comfortable deferring to the more senior posters here regarding how best to handle it. One thing I can say for sure though is that you can mark down the villain as a bad player. Maybe not a fish but a trapper who is too smart for his own good. It's imperative to start building a pot on the turn with a set, if not earlier. I don't hate the flop call since it prices you in (though as you said it looks very suspicious and raising actually looks more like a bluff than flatting), although I'd like to raise at some frequency to build the pot against overpairs. But the turn check capping action is just awful with BDFD potentially coming in and any Broadway card completing a straight. He may have been scared that no one had an A, but even if so, a small bet can start extracting value from Tx.

This slowplay is the kind of cringe stuff I used to do when I was a nit playing 1/2 live cash. In tournaments especially you've got to build pots and go for the home runs as sets don't come around that often.
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