Blinds 100 200. 23k effective

Ep 525
Hero calls bb with 89o. Heads up.

Flop Ks 9d 8d

Hero check
Ep bets 600
Hero 1500
Villian tank raises to 6k.

Hero has a 30k back, villain 14k back.

Hero ???

Sweet c/r

I was expecting to c r and barrel. Was not expecting a raise at all. Seems like only thing that beats me is kk. I block every thing else. I expect high diamonds with a king to just call and let me barrel. Was really confused here. Shes rep ping su ch a barrow range but it's also never a spot people bluff.

Could easily be any combo draw,and there are a lot of them. AK, KQ, KJ QJ QT JT with flush draw are all in Villains range on flop. Some Villains even have 76,65. Whether they 3bet them or not, I don’t know. You are in a pretty gross spot, but I think I’d give up here.

It is a sucky spot. Any reads on villain?

Since the pot is small, I am inclined to let it go. But still, in game I might just go with it, especially if the villain is younger. This can very easily be just a draw that wants to gamble (maybe KQd or Kxd). Would you also fold K8/K9? Is the minimum to call/get it in a set?

Description of villain?

Was 525 standard opening?

Bet of 600 into pot of 1250 seems pretty standard c-bet that could be pretty wide including AK. Combos of AK, KQ, KJ, KT as well as AA, QQ, JJ, and TT and all Ad xd combos could take this line. Check-raise over standard C-bet is certainly strong but hero's range is still pretty wide.

Has hero done any similar check-raise post flop out of position before?

Given stack sizes I can see talking myself into a shove here.

Seems like AKdd/ QJdd/ QTdd/ JTdd/ KK/ 99/88. Maybe K9/ 98. About the same amount of combos. And yes it's never a flat out bluff. Math probably justifies a fold here considering V has loads of equity or we're dominated but I think I'm sticking it in.

pretty loose peel pre-ante...don't really need to defend 98o vs a 2.6x EP open. Doubt this loses less than folding.

Also don't think we get to c/r w 110bbs, just call flop, any turn > 6 sucks for us.

bit Loosy goosy def imho, unecessary but doable if we do have an edge post...as long as we got there, going with it cant be wrong even if it is high variance. V could have pair + nfd, AA, AKdd, imho, most sets will flat your 3b postflop vs your pre def range. Problem is if V could play K9, K8 that way pre (any info?)therefore,

Depends if you think villain is going for equity denial or value.

Does villain/your typical opponent really 3-bet here with two pair+?

Honestly you could just get it in, villain probably just has AA or JdTd.

But GTO-wise you could let this go because you're so deep and you have 99 and 88 and FD.

pre-ante I generally give an unknown a bit more cred from EP and fold my BB. Not a fan of the c/r with bottom 2 without some read. If we have OMR with AK then yeah, c/r and watch them call. you said "she" in your follow-up post. Any more info?

In the Colossus I ship, here I prolly fold.

The c/r is just awful I mean

Some info on your opp would really help here in order to feed into the decision. Pretty horrible spot tbh, as played and with the lack of info I think I pass.

You do block 88and 99, but they are still out there. 40% of Villains sets are 88 or 99.

Am quite curious which table this was at...HH sounds quite familiar (albeit from another view at the table).

Silver 39 I think?

Villian was a woman in her 50s, wasn't getting too out of line. Somewhat tight/aggressive with occasional sporadic bluff tendencies every hour or two when she appeared to be getting bored (definitely not GTO, more situation-dependent if she didn't believe someone). Against someone else made a really weird big turn bet with Jacks on a 2 3 6 K board (turning it into a bluff - then showed it proudly? weird). It was obvious she was a weak theoretical player.

She was one of the poorer players at the table so I didn't want to get it in vs "at-worst" a flush draw here. I tank-folded and figured if she was spazzing out I might have a better spot.

Based on playing with her for more than 6 hours after this hand I think my fold was probably OK. She played more tight/passive than tight/aggressive the rest of the day, with a couple really weird bluff lines but otherwise was fairly nutted when she was aggressive. She may very well have had a set, even the ones I blocked.

Call me crazy but isn’t folding pre super nitty here? Seeing a flop against a single opponent and we have to be like 28-30% against their range for this to be ev neutral? Meh I’m pretty nitty pre in spots like this pf but I feel this is a call almost always pre in a live Donkament.

Not sure why you are raising the flop. Feel you call cbet to let opponent barrel. As opponent is described, how do we know she doesnt have aa? You said she showed a few odd bluffs.

Post flop, I’m prolly calling all in but I’m also terrible early on in mtts when playing super deep. I think prolly best to fold pre ante here as opponents line is super strong and seems to be really bad even if you are ahead as opponent probably has a huge draw.

I'm so relieved to see you acknowledging this, after your earlier comment that the only possible hand she could have that beat you was KK, because you "blocked everything else."

Yes, there's only one combo of cards each that could allow for her to have 88 or 99. But when people make weird bets, they sometimes have weird hands.

you seem like a pretty intelligent/emotionally-stable individual but i may have to reeval this assessment if you think that your equity pre vs an EP opening range is the only variable to consider here (w 115bbs eff?)

*If necessary, I can provide numerous character witnesses** who will state (under oath) that I am not a NIT. I will cop to being "in recovery" tho. So yah...recovering NIT.

**RWE: pls have HHs ready in the event that i need to call you. The KTs cold-4ball should be enuf.

Hope the rehab is getting well cus'

It's early stages of the Marathon and you are up a few chips in the early going. You don't want to commit half your chips when you could be drawing dead against KK.

Think defending is close vs EP BB but probably ok. Don't hate the flop c/r theoretically if we're also going to mix in some JT and diamond draws into our range as well.

As played it feels like we're probably going to have to continue with at least some 2p vs competent villains, the question is whether we have to continue with all of our 2p and it does seem close. However, based on player description this does feel like a reasonable exploitable fold although that player type is the type who will absolutely spaz out with KQ/AQ in these spots occasionally.

This seem like a reasonable range for opponent OP?

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

112,860 trials (Exhaustive)

board: K98

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
9x8y	46.40%	52,356	18
AA,KK,99,88,JdTd,AdKd,AdQd,QdJd,KdJd,AdJd,KdQd,AdTd	53.60%	60,486	18

Not sure about the Axdd. His pair plus flush draws and combo draws all make sense.

pre not good
flop xr sizing awful

Idk what to do now, you made the xr so small that there's a possibility he 3bets AK/AA for value, but it seems unlikely he would go so big as 6k with those, and your equity overall against EP looks really dicey, so I lean towards folding earlyish in a liveament.