Tough (?) spot deep in the Nightly 55 - MTT Poker Strategy

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Tough (?) spot deep in the Nightly 55

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01-18-2016 , 02:20 AM

ChanY

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 1,244

Poker Stars, $50 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37222141

SB: 122,659 (30.7 bb)
BB: 109,400 (27.4 bb)
Hero (UTG): 136,847 (34.2 bb)
MP: 311,919 (78 bb)
CO: 104,211 (26.1 bb)
BTN: 95,446 (23.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q

Hero raises to 9,200, MP raises to 21,132, 4 folds, Hero calls 11,932

Flop: (51,264) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 17,655, Hero calls 17,655

Turn: (86,574) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 23,223, Hero calls 23,223

River: (133,020) T

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 53,212, Hero ?????

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

13 left, no real reads on villain but his massive chipstack tells me he doesn't really mind rumbling.

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01-18-2016 , 03:49 AM

iilksoy

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 5

I think you should check raise all in on the flop with your stack.

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01-18-2016 , 05:16 AM

'97

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 144

do something else pre.

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01-18-2016 , 05:22 AM

Man ag City

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 566

If your going to call pre and flop top pair i think check shoving the flop is better can probably sigh fold river aswell

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01-18-2016 , 05:26 AM

RalphWaldoEmerson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 6,090

wp, now fold

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01-18-2016 , 05:29 AM

Ulysses88

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1

depends on the vilain 3bet% preflop, given that he's the chipleader
it would'nt be suprising that he's 3bet range could be very light aldo you have a little to much to push pre

check raise on on the flop seems like the best move to me.

could make the villain think that you might be drawing on a flush

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01-18-2016 , 05:41 AM

Keep Your Dreams

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,175

As played its fold river.
Thinking hes getting out of line in ep, without any reads, just bc of his chipstack, is a huge misstake imo.

c/r ai on flop with decent value.

Any coment on open folding r/f KQ off in utg with 30bb, that far in the tournament?
I find myself rather often ditching it there tbh (depending a lot of the dynamics/chipstacks).

Edit: alright its 6 players, def r/ai

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01-18-2016 , 06:00 AM

Puzo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,657

Quote:

Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson

wp, now fold

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01-18-2016 , 08:22 AM

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

Quote:

Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson

wp, now fold

Agreed. Turn is not a fold as played. Previous streets are pretty close.

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01-19-2016 , 10:33 AM

#10

SMUTTTT

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 7,127

We should call the flop. That way we can rep 8x, 99-JJ, a draw and a set. We are at the top(ish) of our range. If we raise we allow him to make a considerably easier decision. Turn is terrible ofc but folding is too cheap. Id honestly hero river sometimes but i think its wp. Pre too, 6-handed

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01-19-2016 , 10:37 AM

#11

SMUTTTT

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 7,127

Our range otr is capped seeing as we basically never have a straight or a flush, and were really unlikely to play a set or 2p this way. His bets mean little and our price is good.

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01-19-2016 , 10:43 AM

#12

gaiggibeliin

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 39

Quote:

Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson

wp, now fold

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01-19-2016 , 02:28 PM

#13

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson

wp, now fold

Turn seems a fold considering spr, whats he bluffing?

Pre is close too

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01-19-2016 , 02:50 PM

#14

RalphWaldoEmerson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 6,090

Quote:

Originally Posted by user12345

Turn seems a fold considering spr, whats he bluffing?

I mean he's quite polarized pre and should continue this turn with his bluffs at high if not 100% frequency, no?

If we arrive at turn with range of AQdd, 99-QQ, AK, KQ, and he barrels all his preflop bluffs on this card, folding KQ seems vomit worthy in a vacuum. I could see it being solid population tendencies fold though.

I don't see how SPR is the factor that makes it a fold?

Last edited by RalphWaldoEmerson; 01-19-2016 at 03:08 PM.

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01-19-2016 , 04:58 PM

#15

kkMartini

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 167

I think his sizing post flop is really good in this hand
I would put him mostly on FD's, but probably still fold river.

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01-19-2016 , 07:54 PM

#16

zanardi1

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,589

Im the only one who wants to fold pre??

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01-20-2016 , 05:05 AM

#17

kkMartini

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 167

Quote:

Originally Posted by zanardi1

Im the only one who wants to fold pre??

Yes, I think that won't be that bad also.

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01-20-2016 , 05:08 AM

#18

Keep Your Dreams

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,175

Quote:

Originally Posted by zanardi1

Im the only one who wants to fold pre??

Said before

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01-20-2016 , 06:55 AM

#19

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

Quote:

Originally Posted by zanardi1

Im the only one who wants to fold pre??

I am prolly the only one who will c/r/gii flop as played.
Every decision in this hand is paper thin. Even calling river has merits vs some.

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01-20-2016 , 07:22 AM

#20

Keep Your Dreams

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,175

Quote:

Originally Posted by furo

I am prolly the only one who will c/r/gii flop as played.
Every decision in this hand is paper thin. Even calling river has merits vs some.

Aaand i said that before too 😂

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