Playing in a $360 weekend tournament. Very loose table full of recs. Lots of open limping and showing down hands such as J4s K2s and T6o that make winning hand with 4th pair.

The hand:
Level 3
Blinds: 200/300/300 BB ante

MP (very loose calling station but has biggest stack) raises to 800 (has about 58k in his stack), I'm on the button with AsQh (my image is tight) and I 3 bet to 2200 (I have 20k in my stack). BB (30k in his stack) is the only other player at my table that has been playing the conservative 25 to 30 percent of his hands and has never shown down anything questionable. He looks at me and has to give thought to what he is about to do. He ends up calling my 3 bet and MP calls as well.

Flop: Pot is 7100
Ac 9c 8d

Checks to me and I c bet 3600. BB raises me to 10k. MP folds and I already am thinking I'm beat, but I can't fold top pair yet. I call.

Turn: Pot is 27,000
Ac 9c 8h 7c

He leads out all-in and I assume that I'm beat. A lot of draws like JT got there. Club draws got there. And if he was protecting against those with hands like A9, A8 or pocket 9s or 8s, then I'm already dead anyways. So I folded. Did I make the right fold? Should I have just folded on the flop? I just don't see this guy who had been very tight to get out of line with AT AJ QQ or JJ.

You made the right fold.

I doubt it was a draw that got there. Could be A9/A8 or 88/99. I sometimes fold this flop because why would somebody c/r when I hit my TPTK type hands? But in position HU I sometimes call to see what they do on the turn. Every now and then it gets checked. Even then the check is often to induce a river call.

In my experience cold calling a 3 bet in tournaments is most often 88-TT and AQ. I feel like I see 99 and AQ the most but that might just be me.

I don't think he has many flushes but it's scary that he keeps betting without fear when the draw gets in.

Still, we're getting 2:1 and he could have AT or AJ that picked up a draw. It's marginal. I don't hate calling, but if I feel like I can beat the table I probably let this go.

If he is reasonable we can take A9/A8 out of his range. Let's say he has 40% sets and 60% aces, 15% with each kicker. Say we are dead to the sets and 15% AK. We have 7.5% (15%/2) against AQ. We have something like 70% against the remaining 30% of his range for 21%. That's around 30% equity right there. We only need 25 to call. And 40% sets is an insanely strong range.

I might go slightly larger preflop at this depth-- not a whole lot larger since the open is already 2.67x, but maybe to 2500.

Folding the turn seems correct. BB's entire value range is beating you here. If you haven't been 3-betting much then AK is a significant part of your bet/call flop range and he's still not concerned at all about getting the money in. I'd be very surprised if he shows up with worse aces than yours preflop (maaaaybe AJs and I don't know why he'd check-raise the flop with that).

I just don't see many bluffs, either, especially considering how narrow his preflop range for cold calling is. It would have to literally be something like "check-raised TT with the Tc on flop to try to fold out JJ-KK, then turned the perfect card to blast off with a semibluff." And even then you're probably not betting JJ-KK on this flop for 1/2 pot, and if you do you're probably not calling the flop raise. (Although with that turn card he'd probably shove and pray anyway.)

His range is pretty narrow preflop, but if he's not prone to running elaborate high-risk multi-stage bluffs, then he's only going to have the value portion here, which I think is most likely 99, sometimes 88, maybe rarely AK or AA. (He probably doesn't really have the semibluffs that got there in his preflop range, either, but they all got there on the turn, just in case you think he might have them.)