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tight fold on a bad runout ? tight fold on a bad runout ?

03-29-2023 , 02:09 PM
A typical local casino 50€ field, mostly middle-aged folks.
I had 2 rough hands previously, where I flop great and end up folding on the river.
It may have influenced the way I played the third similar one.

My stack is 22BB, the other players around 50-60BB
LJ opens, I defend T7 from BB (I considered folding, there are no antes yet, and those guys limp a lot, so their opening range is tighter).

Flop : T74
I considered leading, but checked with intention to x-raise. V checks back.

Turn : 8
I lead 70% pot.
V calls

River : 9
I check.
V bets smallish (40% maybe).
Hero ?
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
03-31-2023 , 01:18 PM
I expect live players to be quite passive and you mentioned they limp often which implies tight raising ranges. Youre not playing a btn+3 vs bb situation. Youre playing your bb vs a player pool distribution that is undetermined, variable, and up to now notably passive. I bet the tags and lags are quite conspicuous in such settings.

Because of that, i would bet the flop with a bunch of combos including t7, which is a cornerstone of the strength of my betting range. I check that flop 100% vs online unknowns, and confirmed tags and lags, but because of the live game assumptions above, my default would be a solid donk bet strategy. My size is 70% pot on the flop.

As played, turn seems fine, but perhaps half pot bet would create more advantageous river position for your whole range(which is quite strong on that turn vs common flop check back ranges). Flushes and straights are crushing flop check ranges and half pot will get action from a larger proportion of weak hands with few outs. 70% pot bet necessitates a stronger betting range, and subsequent stronger opponent calling range. Vs aggressive players that will blast you out of the pot often on the turn if they sense weaknesses, a larger bet could be proper, but vs tight passive players theres no need. Smaller bets work just fine and get more of the action you want(the action you dont want such as big diamonds and combo draws will always play unless youre over betting huge, even then they may call).

As played, i check fold river. This combo is now fairly low in my distribution on that runout and ive assumed that my opponent is passive. No need to seek confirmation from minimum defense math. I just check fold because i cant beat a single value hand that makes sense, and i stick to my original assumption that unknown live players dont bluff enough until proven otherwise.
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-01-2023 , 07:33 PM
Hi Bob148,
Even tho i think ur right about villain being passive i do think that villain has some value hand that we beat like 78,t9 and at. yes those are a small amount of value combos but i also think that keeping the 2 previous streets in mind that villain has a big amount of adx bluffs. Also i think villain has seen that hero is capable of folding river. in my opinion folding 2 pair versus a which is most likely a straight or missed fd, i think u just have to call and pay him his money if he has aj/kj/qj/jt with a diamond. U are i think overfolding in this spot and giving villain too mutch respect. I do have to say that i mostly play online and have probably less live experience then u do.
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-02-2023 , 01:30 AM
I cut my teeth at home game tourneys but ive never played a live event. My perspective as posted is basically "online tourney short stack and bottom pair extraordinaire gets injected into a live game."
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-02-2023 , 12:44 PM
One more thing :
I started the hand with 22BB, I bet 2 preflop and 3 OTT, so I'm left with 17BB OTR.
Call and lose : 13BB
Fold : 17BB
Call and win : 31 BB

Not sure how blocks theory influences the river decision.
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-03-2023 , 07:25 PM
Exploitatively against weak players, don't depend on them to build the pot for you. Bet your top 2 pair for value and protection and only take a x/r line against opponents that will fire off a small bet IP a high % of the time. Having the flop check through is one of the worst things to happen since your hand is still fairly vulnerable to flushes, straights or otherwise getting counterfeited. When the turn brings 8d and you lead for 70% pot the opponent will almost never continue without some monster hand. You could still very well have the best hand, but reduce turn sizing since for that amount you are never in a good spot when you get called. The river brings another awful card for you. You have no diamonds and you're only blocking 1 combo of JTs, TT and 77, leaving 2 more combos of JTs (and more if JTo is in LJ's open range, but probably not since you said his raising range is tighter) and 1 combo of TT/77. As played call or fold, you're not good here most of the time but it's such a good price and you are still beating AA-QQ (I put him on JJ honestly with one being a diamond) and some ATs which you are blocking (and might not be in his raising range). In another world if you had a good diamond in your hand you could have check-jammed since you lead for 70% pot on the turn, but with no diamond in your hand I wouldn't go for this bluff.

Last edited by biggestfish; 04-03-2023 at 07:31 PM.
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-03-2023 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Justo
One more thing :
I started the hand with 22BB, I bet 2 preflop and 3 OTT, so I'm left with 17BB OTR.
Call and lose : 13BB
Fold : 17BB
Call and win : 31 BB

Not sure how blocks theory influences the river decision.
With the other stacks you mentioned block theory won't apply for you here. Even if you win, you have 1/2 the stack of the other stacks.
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-06-2023 , 05:56 AM
Thanks for the inputs.

I called river and lost to QJ no diamond for the record.
In the same spot today I think I'd fold, but still close from what you guys are saying.

About the big sizing on the turn, I had the feeling that V's range was very unbalanced.
Very high-cards heavy preflop, and he'd cbet the majority of the few combos that connect with the flop.

So V's range on the turn is mostly :
- 2OC
- 2OC + Flush draw
- 2OC + gutshot (with a J)

Bob and Biggestfish say it's a weak range that shouldn't be attacked with a big bet.
My thinking in game was opposite : "I want to give him bad odds. Let him do a mistake if he wants to continue"
Is it wrong to think like that ?
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-06-2023 , 01:41 PM
You should definitely bet for value, but ask yourself "what the hell is he calling with against a 70% pot sized bet". In this case I'd say you're lucky that he is so sticky on the turn with just a gutshot, but most players won't continue for that sizing when a flush comes in without at least a set, that's why it's called an action-killer. You might have been able to steal the pot on the flop and avoid this situation, but regardless I would size down on this turn unless you're trying to get folds, which you don't need with your hand since it's unlikely he has anything at the time of the turn (and he didn't, he has Q-high).
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-06-2023 , 06:52 PM
Read results, but didn't change my opinion. Looks like a pretty clear river fold. I don't think in live tourneys you're going to get people VBing worse two pairs there for < 50% pot. Just doesn't make any sense, especially after that large turn bet.

Flop vs. an unknown w/ that texture, SRP = definitely bet flop.
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-07-2023 , 10:38 PM
Quote:
So V's range on the turn is mostly :
- 2OC
- 2OC + Flush draw
- 2OC + gutshot (with a J)
No axs? under nor middle pocket pairs?bottom nor middle pairs(probably with a straight draw to go with it unless ax or kxs)? no middle kicker top pairs? Flopped flushdraws that got there? Flopped straight draws that got there?

Seems youre assuming a very simplistic strategy for your opponent. the field probably tends to play tight passive, but this doesn't mean anything close to (check overcards and bet everything else on the flop).
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote
04-08-2023 , 07:46 AM
Checking the flop is the best response. This board is too high for the BB to have donk leads. The boards we want to donk lead are 8 high and lower.

On the turn when the straight and the flush come in, you are supposed to bet smaller. When all of the draws get there, your bet sizings go down.

That river makes things much worse. You only have a bluff catcher at that point. So you can't call if this villain is not bluffing a balanced range. At this level of game, I would assume an unknown in a low stakes game is not bluffing often enough to call off with a bluff catcher.
tight fold on a bad runout ? Quote

      
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