Is there a world where this is ever a fold?
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 1
Sitting in the BB with 15BB, folds around to SB who has 18BB. 18 left in tournament, I'm sitting 13th, pay jump at 17, 33K up top. SB shoves, I have 99.
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 6,076
I used to fold 99 in spots like this but now I am calling.
I think it depends on what range the Villain is opening. Its hard to know when they are the SB though. I might fold if it is an OMC who is tight in general.
Also, I think most people don't like to play OOP in the SB vs BB. If SB raises and misses it can be tough.
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 5,941
Without running through icmizer, and even with icm effects being highest on the final two tables, I’d expect this to be a call against virtually all but the nittiest of opponents
Gotta win those flips!
Join Date: Oct 2023
Posts: 239
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 15,157
I don't think I would fold. Because he's supposed to shove a lot of small pairs so there is a large portion of the range you're 80/20 and a bunch where you're 70/30 and you're virtually never a 20/80 dog.
At worst you're up against two overs.
the second coming of the second coming
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 68,694
No, never in this spot (really only if it's a satellite and you're guaranteed to win a seat if you just keep folding).
You're going to be dominating a lot of his correct high card hand shoves and maybe the suited connector hands as well. Really the SB would have to be insanely tight for this not to be the correct call.
I guess you could stall for a bit if anyone is all in at another table to see if you ladder up, but this is a spot you have to take.
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 6,717
Don't think I could ever fold. Would think for a little bit though.
However, OP doesn't mention what the pay jump is at 17. At that level, I'm going to assume it's not significant, but that needs to be taken into consideration.
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 1,506
Fist pump call.
Many of your Villains will be playing a Limp/Raise/Jam strategy. Against this we have a fantastic hand, as a lot of there open jams are supposed to be small pairs, and Ax where X is smaller than 9. The hands you most don't want to see, TT+ are almost never jammed.
Even if they are playing a strategy with no smaller raises, 99 is way to good a hand to fold here.
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 736
Great responses above, agreed with them all. Would also add that even against a tight person we can likely remove the top portion of their range (JJ+ AK+) where I think a tigther rec likely just opens ~4x with those hands here thinking they're too good to jam. Now I am curious if anyone thinks we could fold in a situation where it folds to a tight SB player who opens for ~4x here (off their sub 20bb stack) - can we maybe make an insanely tight exploitative fold now against a villain who unlikely raise/folds here and now those top 5 hands all re-enter his range?
Join Date: Oct 2023
Posts: 239
Might fold to 4 BBs but against a 3 BB open from a tight player I'd be tempted to call since we are getting almost the correct price to set mine. Then we probably have to pile if the board comes 3 unders.
