I've been at the table for about an hour or so.

BTN - $1000 - Slightly overweight hispanic/asian can't really tell his race. Within his first few hands at the table he bet shove w/ 33 vs an older asian's 3bet. the 3bettor was kind of a nit, and it seemed really bad against him. other than that he has been an absolute nit most of his time at the table.

MP(hero) - $580 - have had one big pot where i showed down a bluff when I cbet then shoved a K93r 2r against UTG. He had like 80bb effective and won with K4s. that hand was about an hour ago and since then I've won a few pots without showdown.

UTG - $500-older asian. really loose/aggro/spewy/overvalues top pair kind of villain. multiway, called a flop cbet/turn shove w/ TPNK earlier for 80bbs. kind of wears his emotions on his sleeve, so it's easy to gauge his perceived hand strength.

The hand in question:

Straddle pot. UTG+1 limps limps, folds to me in MP. I raise $40w/ A9s in CO, BTN calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls

$160 flop 9h4h3c

checks to me, I bet $90, BTN calls, EP thinks for a while and raises to $160

UTG did not look strong the entire hand. I think I'm still very well ahead of UTG's range. However, If BTN comes along I am likely crushed or he may have a strong draw.

I call, BTN calls pretty quick and chants about his heart draw.

$640 turn, 9h4h3c Ks

UTG checks, I think for a few then AI for $420

Hate these spots...These are the type of spots I get into frequently on my big losing nights, and can only happen in live games where they never do math or know the math, but can figure out they are priced in always.

I'd probably just jam the flop versus the min 3bet. Almost every turn sucks for you. If it's not a jam, then I probably fold since every turn sucks for you.

I dunno, I kinda hate all options though. We might have enough fold equity/real equity to shove. We might even get btn to fold better (TT/JJ).

Your read against EP makes me think we are ok versus his range. He could be just "seeing where he's at". Some do ridiculous things like min c/r, or 1/6 pot bets when checked to with draws, so I think that's part of his range.

I think I'd just tell myself I have TPTK and 54bbs and shove.

sorry for the ramble.

edit: as played, I think the turn shove is fine. You are ahead of EP a tonne in my opinion, btn can still fold better if he ever has it and never has a set imo, and protecting your equity is valid.

2/3/5

The table just started, been playing a few hours or so.

BTN (Hero) $1000 - been fairly active winning pots without showdown. only big showdown was a bet bet shove on 9d 6d 3c Qs Kh w/ KJo and was good.

MP $900 - Talkative older asian, wearing beats headphones. don't have a good read on him. i think he won a big pot with AA earlier.

BB $700 - talkative indian guy. comments on every hand. unless he's trolling, he's really really bad. earlier he donked into me 3 way on a KJ6r and folded when i 3x+10'd his raise. said he had KQ.

MP limps, folds to me i make it $20 w/ KTdd on the button. BB calls. MP calls.

Flop $60 - Qd Jd 4s

checks to me i bet $50, folds to MP, he thinks a while, stares me down a little, then calls. he looked pretty weak, almost like he was going to fold. all of this happened in about 10 seconds

Turn $160 - Jc

MP thinks for a second or two and leads $125.

Hero?

I'd probably fold. I don't think this is a bluff all that often since he'd snap call flop with draws You're not getting a good price and with the paired board your implied odds arent near as good and live people always fear the flush.

jeah fold

I think I jam the flop after EP raises. BTN only has FDs/sets here and I think flatting makes it way >>>rand to be a FD.

We also know EP overplays top pair so he can definitely do this with worse hands.

As played I'd like to jam the turn. Sucks when btn has KQhh but checking back multiway here is not bueno.

Anyone interested in doing a sttf cash Skype chat group?

definitely down. i've been hoping to get something like this going for a while.

your 2p2 inbox is full, can't PM my skype name

Agree with folding. Our direct odds
aren't nearly good enough to warrant a call and we might not have implied odds. If diamonds peel we might not get paid off and even when we do improve we're still going to loose a non 0% of the time when villain fills up.

Also cleared pm space, if any else is interested in sttf cash chat pm me

Do you guys think there's ever a reason to have a bluff range on the turn?

If not, then it seems like an absurdly good spot for villain to donk into us on the turn. Specifically when the board pairs.

Agreed but you'd have to assume that villain knows what a range is, that he knows how to balance the frequency of his actions, and that he ever shows up with hands that calls pre, c/c the flop and then turns the portion of his range that is unmade hands in his range into bluffs.

There's a myriad of reasons why that's never happening here, but most importantly is that villain just doesn't have a range of hands that calls pre and sigh-calls the flop that he can turn into bluff leads on the turn. Even if he's capable of such a thing we also block a lot of a combos of the unmade hands that could in-theory be in such a range.

Agree with your analysia. I was more considering from a theoretical stand point than in this particular hand.

5/10

Hero has been at the table for like an hour. Has ~2.2k.

Table is pretty nitty/reg infested but beatable. I'm the most active player since ive sat down.

Hero opens from utg+1 to $35 with K Q. Utg+2 flats (b/e or slight winning reg - has $1500), mp flats (recreational player, a loser in theses games and is the worst player in this line up - has 2k) and the sb calls (old man reg, fairly straight forward but occasionally can make moves/bluff - prob a winner - has like 4k).

Flop ($150): J T 7

Sb checks, I cbet $90, utg2 calls, mp folds, sb calls.

Turn ($420): 5

sb checks, I barrel $260, utg2 folds. Sb stands up, looks over seat 5 (he's in 4 I'm in 7). He's looking to see how many chips I have behind. He sits back down and calls.

River ($940): T

Sb checks, I bet $475.

Thoughts?

Looks fine to me. Although you have the best hand a decent amount of the time that he folds. But, you can still get Asxs or 97, 87, 7hxh, etc to fold. People never slow play past the turn, so his range is capped at like AJ. River kinda sucks though cause most hands you re trying to fold out are Tx and 7x.

If I wasn't going to bet the river I would not bet the turn.

Gotta bet this river after turn barrel imo. You basically only 3 barrel with QQ+/sets/KQ here, so he cant really call light here.
Also you still need to fold out his missed Axs FDs, perhaps Jx giving you credit.
I would he surprised if he stuck around with Tx here on the turn.

Once you bet the turn you have to bet the river to fold his middling pair & draw hands. I'm not a huge fan of this line on this board, and probably check back the turn a lot of the time. Hell checking the flop is probably fine too. I don't think there's anything wrong with that, as we have some tainted outs on this board.

I dont play cash atm. So maybe I am off here. But given stack depth (150-220BBs) I think c/raising this flop is better than leading.

Why?

thinking about this hand more, if i bet the flop i am pretty much always going to triple barrel regardless the runout.

another thing, i think you should increase your bet sizing on every street.

I dunno...thinking more about the hand, the less likely I'm going to two barrel. Live, it's probably ok to double then triple barrel because people will call flop and turn because they might improve and might be able to win the hand.

Against good thinking players though, that turn just adds a draws to an already draw heavy board which gives you a lot of busted draws on blank rivers and I wouldn't expect many folds.

But, that's against thinking players.

I think simply because of equity and you can just bet the flop and give when turns like this hit.

All that said, I would NOT c/r this flop with these stack sizes.

C/r flop has "draw" written all over it, which most of the cases means that villains will not fold unless a draw gets there. I don't like it.

very good thread man,thanks!!!

Not a fan of cring that flop. I won't ever like it when we get a call. If we barrel after cring our bets are going to have to be a lot bigger bc we just bloated the pot.

Why should bet sizing be larger? None of these guys are good enough to pick up on sizing tells and I think my sizing accomplishes the same as larger bets would, esp on the river.

i don't think you get accomplish the same with your sizing, you're definitely going to get more folds with larger sizes.

maybe i'm paranoid, but i start to give people (no more than 1-2 ppl at a given table) credit for picking up on these things, especially at 5/10