I agree with the above and am probably never folding.

He is like 75/56 over only 16 hands so not sure how useful those numbers other than its probably safe to say he is loose. I am not sure how aggressive I can be on the turn any more since this flop got very scary for anyone that has a lot of connectors in there range.

Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $12.10
BTN: $26.74
SB: $81.05
Hero (BB): $79.32
UTG: $123.66
MP: $12.33

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A A
UTG raises to $0.75, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2.75, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.60) 9 J 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.25, UTG calls $3.25

Turn: ($12.10) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($12.10) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5.64, Hero calls $5.64

pf, flop and turn seem fine to me. I may have bet more on the flop.
Were you going to c/c turn?
I would fold the river since you are basically not beating anything.
I don't think KK or AJ are betting the river here enough for you to be good with a call.

I fold the river if not for the Q that gives me top 2 pair. I think 2 pair is very much a part of his range. Yes I was looking to check fold the turn

You have to ask yourself which 2 pair combos he would be betting here for value like this.
I don't see them.

If anything that river card makes things worse for you than the turn situation.
Since it gets his FDs there. Plus you're now beat by AQ/KQ.

Ok not sure about turn but if I bet turn should I bet/fold the river? I can check and let him bluff a broken FD but its a bad spot if he pots it?

Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $27.87
SB: $26.87
Hero (BB): $28.26
UTG: $19.36
MP: $30.86
CO: $42.93

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 8 8
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, CO calls $1

Flop: ($2.60) T T 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.60) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50

River: ($12.60) 5 (2 players)

I'd b/f the river for ~$6.80. If he has a boat/Tx he will shove and you can fold, whereas he may still give you value with 22/A3/44-66.
I think the problem with c/c is that you'renot controlling the sizing, if he pots it you'll still end up folding a lot since there are a lot of hands that beat you that bet, while you only beat a missed FD trying to bluff you off.

This is the problem I had. He potted it and I had to fold

Yeah, than hero calling gets to be quite an expensive hobby without a solid read.

Tbh, I would not have raised this hand pf OOP.

Why cant he have a J or KK here? I think folding the river getting > 3-1 is a pretty big mistake. He's going to have some flushes in his range, maybe some Qs, possibly some Ts (less likely), but I think he will have way more than enough other stuff to make this a +ev call.


The 88 - I think I would not raise preflop most times, but I think raising is probably ok. The turn could be ok to check rather than 2-barreling, I'm not sure. I don't know why you would bet/fold the river. Is that a bluff? If not, what is calling that you're ahead of? I'd check and either call or fold based on the bet size.

AA, that deep i'd be 3betting bigger pf especially vs. stats like that, and pot the flop. i'd call the river given the price.

88, i'd flat pf readless. after he calls the flop i'd probly c/c one street.

Maybe I am to big of a nit but not sure I want to bloat a pot oop 300bb deep where my likely showdown hand is top pair

UTG+2 is 13/9 over 948 hands, AF 2.5
BB is 13/10 over 1.2k hands AF 3.2

I'm a bit lost here tbh, this flop seems to hit both of their set mining ranges, but they're also possibly thinking they may be ahead with 88-JJ when I check the flop, so I think I have under-repped my hand, and once BB folds I feel I can peel a turn but really want to keep the pot small.

His turn bet starts to feel like he's valuetowning me with a FH, but I just can't fold figuring there's still a chance he's double barrelling say JJ/QQ, then I guess the river is an easy c/f?

Too weak?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $50.70
BTN: $25.26
SB: $25.53
BB: $35.48
Hero (UTG): $29.35
UTG+1: $15.00
MP1: $32.26
MP2: $21.44

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1, 4 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.10) 7 3 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets $2.25, BB calls $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($9.85) 7 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets $3.75, BB folds, Hero calls $3.75

River: ($17.35) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $9.50, Hero folds

this flop isn't that scary. It hits their set mining ranges about as much as any flop with three cards J or lower. It doesn't really hit their SC range that much as far as better hands go, but it does hit their range to pay off a couple streets with their pair+straight draws.

There is definitely value in betting. As played, with the bet sizing, I'm calling down. He is not betting like he has the nuts, like 7x or a boat. Guys at this level bet big when strong, and smaller when weaker. They bet the strength of their hand, no the perceived strength of yours.

You have 2pr vs someone betting very weak, when you've under repped ur hand at 25nl were people often just bet because they don't know what else to do. He can have QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 89, 66, 44, T9ss, A4ss, etc.

If you believe TT > QQ is really in MP1's range (meaning he doesn't re-pop pre) then I would call the river for sure. If I was MP1 given how you played it I'm value betting at least JJ/QQ and possibly TT.

The size of his turn bet also doesn't scream full house at me either as wouldn't he want to inflate the pot on the turn so he can bet bigger on the river?

I don't really understand your flop check it seems there should be good value in betting.

I didn't read this the first time around.

I don't really get this line of thinking. "I want to keep the pot small". I just doesn't seem like a valid reason to bet, not bet, c/c, etc.

The reasons to do something have to do with equity and ranges, not keeping the pot small. Like, "I think I should c/c the turn again because villain will bet a wider range than will call a turn bet, so there is more value in c/c than b/f."

Also, there is no way for you to keep the pot small here, unless you bet really small your self. He can easily set up a river shove betting anywhere from $6 to pot.

You are killing your win rate when he has a big hand. He'll often 4 bet and building a pot preflop with AA is NEVER a bad thing especially vs somebody that will stack off light.

If you aren't 3 betting here with AA because you are afraid of building a pot with 300 bb's then you need to gtfo the table. There's no shame in not wanting to play with more than 150 big blinds especially when you are just learning cash.

Just saw you 3 bet pf. Disregard most of my post except the last sentence.

I had no problem sticking it all in pf. If he 4b then I 5b to get it in. I just didn't know how great 3b larger is because if its called we prob aren't getting it in on flop since so deep anyhow.

Neil, just bet flop, turn etc, if they have a set they will come over the top, other than that they will mostly float flops with a lot IP in hope your AK missed and will c/f turn.

not stats reads on either villain:

note stack sizes.

Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP): $27.86
CO: $49.82
BTN: $11.16
SB: $25.60
BB: $33.76
UTG: $18.62

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with A 7
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.10) 2 6 A (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $0.75, BB folds, Hero calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75

Turn: ($5.35) 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $4.00, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4

River: ($17.35) J (3 players)
Hero bets $13.00, CO raises to $44.32, BTN folds, Hero ????

I do not think you get bluff raised on the river enough at this level to justify calling here.

devin theres something wrong with your converted. It shows you with 27.86$ when its obviously 2786$. I cant fold coz Im bad and my experience shows your beat basically always.

+1

I think I've seen 2 bluffraises on the river in my entire 25NL career, also with BTN being reallllly short and left to act behind, its a really bad bluffing spot... Only thing that might argue for a bluff is that your lack of cbet + donk on the turn is a bit uncoventional (but good imo) and that might induce some spazz (but actually i think it shows a decent amount of strength)...

Anyway IMO he has a bluff almost never, a worse two pair or AK (that somehow thinks is good enough to bet with) a small percentage of the time he gets them dealt, AJ a bit more often and a set (22,66,77, SET! ZOMG! SLOWPLAY!) a pretty big percentage of the time he gets them dealt.

Edit: Folding 2pair getting 1:3.5 against a random is pretty dirty and I'm sure I'd station it up in game like I always do, but yeah, fold seems right, the rest of the hand is also fine (obviously).

I dont think I can fold here. Pot odds + a pretty good hand = call here. I think he's going to have enough hands that you beat to make it profitable.*

* - I dont play 100 BB 25nl rush, so take my advice for what its worth.