he's not ever folding a ten unless you're a huge nit, against this kind of villain you can probably check behind turn and fold river.

I would go for it. Cant really see this guy calling 3 streets with a weak pair unless you have given him reason to think your are FOS during the session.

you're too much polarized on that kind of board to make him fold a pair if you're playing lag ...

I probably wouldn't even bet the turn. He can peel Ax on this flop a lot, and it's such an obvious bluff card. I'd just give up on the river. If I was going to bet though....I'd make it super expensive for him with an overbet (but very very rarely).

ha ha, I guess my thinking is like 12 months behind the times. (for these stakes, probably 3 years behind the times for higher stakes.)

how often do you guys raise sc's in ep? i usually fold pf unless i have a really tight image or table is very tight.

exactly.

I would raise 87s in this spot a lot at the average nl25 table.

Pretty much every time unless there's a good aggressive player on my left giving me problems (and then I usually just leave the table) or a shortstack in the BB or my image is insane.

Why? it's not really going to be a profitable hand...so, unless you need to do it to make ur profitable hands more profitable, I don't see much of a reason to play it.

Let me preface this by saying I don't have much of a sample right now...

But a lot of the tables I'm playing seem tight and the players that are looser in general are not aggressive like at higher stakes. They don't know how to play position well and they're not 3-betting. So even if I get called by someone IP preflop a lot of times they will just fold to a c-bet on the flop anyway. If my flop bet gets called I can often check the next street and get a free card, pick up outs, etc. even though I'm OOP.

I'm pretty sure I can play these from EP at the current nl25 tables profitably or at least break even, but I'm never going to have a sample size large enough to really know for sure.

Also I'm playing only 2 tables and sometimes 4 at the most. If I was playing more tables I would probably fold in these spots more often.

16 hands with villain at this table, 38/0/.8 in those hands, nothing noteworthy.

I have no reason not to bet this flop. Turn, I'm obviously value betting and would be a good bluff card for me anyway. I was considering checking turn to induce, or to set up value on the river, but I hate it when they check behind with a draw and one of those cards hit, and I'm OOP. And I had no reason to believe this opponent would stab thinking I've given up. Hopefully he thinks I'm barreling.

River, all draws missed.

Bet - and puke to a shove and have to call? or have to fold? He'll call only with KcXc and of course all better hands if he doesn't raise those. I think I'd have to fold if I bet, so I would make it an amount that looks like I'm calling... maybe $7 - $8? Any more and I feel like I'm just wasting money, any less and it might induce a bluff shove which I don't want.

Check - It's possible he'll value bet KcXc but will probably check behind and will check behind A8 and all other lower pocket pairs. The most value I see is hoping he bluffs the bunch of club/straight draws that missed.

When he bets, how big of a bet are you willing to call? He has $18 left.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $24.75
BB: $23.75
UTG: $30.95
CO: $24.25
BTN: $8.35

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with K Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.00) 8 6 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.55, BB calls $1.55

Turn: ($5.10) K (2 players)
Hero bets $2.65, BB calls $2.65

River: ($10.40) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets ...

He's calling you down more than he's floating to bluff here.

I think bet/fold the river is best here, but against and aggro opponent it could be check/call or bet/call.

Well in general I think someone with those stats over a couple orbits is playing their cards face up. If he is floating you he isn't randomly bluffing that riv. He's pretty wide on the flop b/c 25NL LP's hate getting their BB raised and don't believe you when you cbet that type of board. I'm probably getting another street of value on the riv. Something like half pot sounds nice that way we can comfortably fold to raises. Since you checked I'm probably calling up to a PSB but I'm not happy about it if he pots it.

I wouldnt worry much about getting outplayed here (him floating and raising the river or whatever). From the small sample he seems really passive, and its bvb so he's probably also even more in loosygoosy mode than usual. I just bet/fold something that he might call with JcXc, KcXc, TT, A8 whatever (and yeah, I think he might call with any of these hands). $4.80 or something? And we really need to fold if he raises, a 38/0/0.8 is not shoving a missed draw or float on you.

I think checking is bad because he looks too passive to bluff enough, but if I do check, I probably call a lot because I'm a friggin callingstation, I think that might be bad because he is probably checking a lot of hand with showndown value behind... not sure... Another reason why I bet/fold.

Just don't fold the river, and you played it fine. b/f or c/c are fine. It's not enough of a sample to know how he's going to play a busted draw. I'd probably lean towards betting, but c/c can't be bad.

That said, he puts more money in on the turn than the river. There are a lot of draws that will call, and he'll often call a turn and fold to a river bet. So, bet much bigger on the turn. then you can 1/2 pot the river, or c/c.

OK, so he shoved in all $18...

It'll be a bluff sometimes, but I think it's a fold there.

Ok, so he's either bluffing or has something that beats you badly (he's not doing that with any marginal value hand)... then I stick with my opinion that he isn't bluffing enough for you to call... the type of player that shoves a busted draw for 2x pot isn't going to play 16 hands that make him 38/0/.8 often, lots of other players are and they usually have 2p+ here...

i'd probly cbet, too...but villain is most likely a station that will call with overs and anything that connects with this board, so most of his range. checking doesn't suck especially if you've shown aggression previously. if you're gonna cbet, i'd pot it.

you're giving him too much credit, imo. the only thing villain is thinking is "where the **** is my call button?"
- bet bigger on the turn.

time for your happy dance, i'd make a pretty big bet here and fold to a shove. as played, you induced a bluff by checking, but you still have to fold to the shove. i'd call anything pot-sized or less, tho.

my preferred line here would be bet, bet, bet setting up a pot-sized shove on the river. if you didn't pair your hand i'd be one and done.

it's close cause he has to be bluffing so often. But, what's he have KJcc or J8...? I'd probably call.

snapcall imo but i'm probably bet calling river anyway

edit: mb at nl25 my line sucks.

Being loose passive (over a small sample) and 25NL people in general freaking out when SB raises their BB, I'd say he might definitely have stuff like 86/K8/33/66 maybe even 88 or K6, i don't know lots of stuff... But then again, you guys are better then me, so yeah...

You really have to discount the big hands on the turn though, cause although donks love to slow play...they still usually wake up on the turn rather than slow play till the river on a drawy board.

Also...16 hands is nothing. I play like 22/18 and was 0/0 after 22 hands on one table today.

Not really disagreeing (you're probably definitely be right), but; I play 26/20, I'm 0/0 a lot, sometimes 40/30, sometimes 10/5 etc etc... 38/0/.8 though? not so much...

(I'm not saying that its impossible that he not loose passive at all, just saying that I think its unlikely)

Guy was Ironman but was splashy Post Flop. 20 hands 30/20/4

Which which gets the most value river check and let him bluff or just value bet shove ?


Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $10.00
UTG: $2.59
MP: $5.56
CO: $3.72
BTN: $14.44
Hero (SB): $10.14

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 7 7
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.80) 4 7 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: ($0.80) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, BB raises to $1.60, Hero raises to $5.60, BB calls $4

River: ($12.00) J (2 players)