What? There's $4.25 already in the pot. Raising $3 into a $6.25 pot isn't going to get rid of MP.

Embarassed to report 300k hands at 10nl over the last 2.5 years

xperu might be right about never folding trips at 10nl.

However, I disagree with about everything else he says.

AA hand:

Board: Js Ts 5c Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.831% 42.17% 01.66% 1169 46.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 56.169% 54.51% 01.66% 1511 46.00 { TT+, 55, AQs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, AQo+, KQo, QJo, JTo }

we need 20% equity. So, a range we don't have 20% equity again?

Board: Js Ts 5c Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.481% 19.48% 00.00% 180 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 80.519% 80.52% 00.00% 744 0.00 { QQ-TT, 55, QJs, QJo }

So, he can never have JT, KQ, AQ, or anything else. I don't see this being reasonable.

This makes absolutely no sense at all. The most profitable strategy is the one that makes the most money. You make the most money by maximizing value on every hand. Just because you can get your big hands paid off, doesn't mean you should sacrifice profit from your other less strong hands.

Let me first say that I've probably never folded AQo in this spot. But, I don't think it'd be terrible given we are oop and at 10nl his iso range is pretty tight so hitting the flop and playing a big pot is questionable.

I'll admit, the rational you use to come to conclusions about lines is baffling to me.

So, villains range is pp, and AJs+ so folding AQ would be terrible? Yet you 3bet 100%?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.222% 40.67% 01.55% 668592648 25460088.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 57.778% 56.23% 01.55% 924299016 25460088.00 { 22+, AJs+ }

So, what are we hoping for? We are hoping we miss, he misses and we can get him to fold his pp? Or flop is AQJ, QJx, etc so we draw out on AK and pps and make some money from AJs?

if AQ is never good when he triple barrels, why can't we call flop and turn and fold river?

What we hit here Devin is pretty fundamental to me. I sit here isolated in Peru, and develop my own strategy/rationale. I cashed out $3k in Jan to pay school fees, and since then, apart from brief forays upwards, have been playing $10nl. I cash out $250 a week, so it's fair to say I beat this level thoroughly (but I could really do with beating it at 350 a week so I could move back up!). With so many hands, I've evolved a strategy that works, but not a proper structure to explain why it works. The nearest I can do to explain, is to say that I match the money I put at risk with the potential profit I can make adjusted for risk.

As a result, all I can do is say what I think based on my experiences. If I'm wrong, and you pick this up, then there is no more valuable information I could be given, and I rejoice at having been educated! To me, this is the real value of this thread.

So to answer as best I can: with AQ, we are hoping to win a small pot, either when he folds a mid/small pair pre to a 3 bet, or on flop, and we know that we will never need to get a lot of money in behind. If in the AQ hand, villain checks turn, then we can call a river bet. But if he triple barrels we are behind and should not pay off what at this level are always value bets.

With the AA hand, I think AQ spades is probably the only hand we are beating, that min raises, and then only from some villains, most of the time we are up against TT,JJ, QQ or AK spades. So, yes, I discount the equity we have against hands we could be ahead of and assign a much higher likelihood to hands that have us crushed. I which case folding is fine. Maybe I am losing equity, but I'm living with less variance, maybe this is the price to pay .

Re not maximising profitability: I don't disagree with you, but every time I have tried to play with small edges, I end up butt****ed (obv I exaggerate) but it affects the whole way I play, and I end up losing money.

Not to gang up on xPeru, but ask yourself, "why is it so easy to get big hands paid off in 10nl?"

After you answer that question, see if you need to redefine what you consider a big hand and remember, you're trying to win the most money you can in the long run, not be right every hand.

Dudes, think about all the hands people call you with and you shake your head and wonder, what the hell?

Just get the money in with weaker hands and then thank me - except for you mattie - I think you're on the right track already if you're debating a value bet on the J9 river.

Simple answer: 10nl players overvalue top pair and overpairs. So sets, str8s and flushes get easily paid off. One exploits this, by folding top pair to aggression!

That doesn't necessarily follow, but generally I'm not disagreeing with being ready to fold to aggression. I would never fold that AA hand though. But, like you, I would have bet more earlier and folding the turn would have been even less possible.

On the AQ hand though, if I raise that flop and get called I'm almost never check-folding turn or river. If the turn and river are blanks, and a lot of times even if they aren't, I'm happily betting both streets and getting it in. My heart might beat a little harder for a few seconds before he turns over JQ or, if you're running bad he'll hit a set of 3s on the river or something.

Bit drunk last night ...

If Jurasstoil would be so kind as to post the results of that AQ hand, I am happy to bet $20 (Yes: 2 full buy-ins!!!!) that villain had one of the following hands:

77, 88, TT, KK, AA, AQ - notice I exclude QQ which almost all villains check on flop. If there was no showdown, I expect villain shoved the river

QJ and KQ almost never raise the limper at 10nl

jurrasstoil on FTP

he had KJs.

Full Tilt Poker Game #11950794263: Table Rust (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:42:15 ET - 2009/04/30
Seat 1: XXKirosXX ($10.45)
Seat 2: miky55 ($10.02)
Seat 3: jurrasstoil ($10.59)
Seat 4: Soreclis ($25.67)
Seat 6: smmindless ($10)
miky55 posts the small blind of $0.05
jurrasstoil posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jurrasstoil [Ah Qd]
Soreclis calls $0.10
smmindless folds
XXKirosXX raises to $0.50
miky55 folds
miky55 adds $0.03
frigokid sits down
frigokid adds $10
jurrasstoil calls $0.40
Soreclis folds
*** FLOP *** [8d Qh 7s]
jurrasstoil checks
XXKirosXX bets $0.70
jurrasstoil calls $0.70
*** TURN *** [8d Qh 7s] [Th]
jurrasstoil checks
XXKirosXX bets $2
jurrasstoil calls $2
*** RIVER *** [8d Qh 7s Th] [3c]
jurrasstoil checks
XXKirosXX checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
XXKirosXX shows [Jh Kh] King Queen high
jurrasstoil shows [Ah Qd] a pair of Queens
jurrasstoil wins the pot ($6.12) with a pair of Queens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $6.55 | Rake $0.43
Board: [8d Qh 7s Th 3c]
Seat 1: XXKirosXX (button) showed [Jh Kh] and lost with King Queen high
Seat 2: miky55 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: jurrasstoil (big blind) showed [Ah Qd] and won ($6.12) with a pair of Queens
Seat 4: Soreclis folded before the Flop
Seat 6: smmindless didn't bet (folded)

The games have changed

Results posted before I even saw the bet offered!!!!!

I'm still sure my $EV was positive on that bet, I just run bad

And only at 10nl does a guy with PFR 5% raise a limper with KJ ... howdo I ever make a profit in these games? lol

Ah, I misread the hand yet again...sorry, I'll get me coat.

Shover is a regular 17/13 over 500 hands. I've seen him shove to steal once before in a multiway pot. Caller is a 65/23 fish.


$10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $6.95
SB: $9.60
BB: $12.95
UTG: $9.85
Hero (CO): $10.05

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with J J
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.60) 7 6 T (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.55, BTN calls $1.55, SB folds, BB raises to $12.55, Hero?

I figure it's 50/50 the fish will call with the draw or any T. Do I have a call here?

I'd fold.

Pretty easy fold:

Hand 0: 74.589% { TT, 77-66, AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, 98s }
Hand 1: 25.411% { JhJs }

Even with shorty?

I'm expecting the reg to shove all his flush draws, and sets + maybe 5% air because he knows I can fold an overpair here. I expect fish to call with any decent T, or flush draw, + his sets, made str8s, 2 pr hands etc. I felt it was a lot closer than first view suggested. At the time I folded, but I insta regretted it when fish showed AT and reg showed 97cc.

More fundamental question is how do you include p of fish calling in your calculations, and what rule of thumb will help? Eg can I assume if I call, he will call 50%, and therefore before I call I can say the final pot will be reg's stack + half fish's stack, and then work out if I have enough equity to call?

Well, you could start by assuming that the fish always calls and is always drawing completely dead. In that case the final pot will be $27.45 and if you accept the range I gave, your equity will be just under $7, so the call for $8.10 loses.

Probably the best approach is to look at the maximum you could possibly gain from a call (in this case $1.25 ish, assuming your equity is roughly 25% vs the reg and the fish calls for $5 drawing dead). Then modify that by looking at how likely he is to call and how bad a call it actually is. In this instance if you think he calls only 50% of the time then halve the $1.25 to $0.63. Then you need to consider that he has a chance of winning the pot. In the AT/97cc hand for instance, his odds are around 12-13% 3 ways which is about half of what he requires given his pot odds. So he's only actually losing half of what he puts in. So you should halve the amount his call gives you again, from $0.63 to roughly $0.30.

You can see this is a pretty minor factor in the decision. If the fish folded instead, the pot would be $22.45. $0.30 extra equity in that pot would be the same as if your winning chances increased by 1.3%, so from say 25% to 26.3%. The question of what the regular has is hugely more important in your decision making. In practice you can pretty much ignore the fish.

The regular will never, ever have air in this spot btw. It's too likely he's getting called by the fish, which eats up a ton of his bluffing profit. And he gets hurt pretty badly by all the times you have a set, 98, etc.

Hand #1
Villain was a little LAG 33/26 with 47% steal over 46 hands. What do you think about 3betting low PP's here, because we have a lot of FE and can make a lot of hands fold that flip against us. Or just call for (set) value?

Party Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): $50.00
UTG: $55.44
CO: $48.50
BTN: $60.00
SB: $29.79

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 5 5
2 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero ??

Hand #2
Villain was very laggy over small sample: 65/65/4 100% cbet over 22 hands. What to do on this flop? I assume we have the best hand a fair amount of the time and we have some (backdoor) outs as well. Do you call? raise? fold? Why?

Party Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $67.84
CO: $54.02
BTN: $50.00
SB: $21.95
Hero (BB): $51.50
UTG: $51.63

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with T Q
4 folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) J J A (2 players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero ??

Hand 1:

You can't consider this a flip cause it's so unlikely to get all in preflop. 3-betting depends a bit on the flow, but you basically have to consider it a total bluff. You can't continue if he 4-bets, which might not be too unlikely because he's laggy - maybe you're laggy - he was in a steal position and you knew he was in a steal position. There's not a lot of set value either because his range is so wide.

I think any play here preflop is fine in the right percentages. If you call, you clearly have to win the hand postflop somewhat often when you don't hit a set. If you're not sure you see clear profit in calling and bluffing, calling and getting a free showdown, 3-betting and him folding preflop or folding to a c-bet, it's not a bad spot to fold.

Put yourself in his position and how do you like that spot vs. someone with 55?

Hand 2:

Against someone who c-bets 100% like this I am looking to occasionally get myself in to a spot like this and raise their c-bet with air. With your hand having decent, but not great equity and him 1/2 potting the flop, I think I like calling and re-eval the turn. If you think he's likely to continue betting the turn with any hand (total bluff and weak value will be a big part of his range), then a raise on the turn will look good. If you're not really sure, you might be going for the draw/cheap showdown.

The thing to avoid with aggro donks who cbet everytime is putting yourself in very difficult spots postflop and felting it. You will often decide that you are happily getting it in with top pair no kicker and that will probably be correct, but make sure that doesn't have you getting it in with weak second or third pair thinking, "meh, there's still a good chance I have him."

You obviously might be getting it in on a semi-bluff - and the aggro donks often are not call monkeys - just don't get into a situation where you've overcommited yourself without a plan.

Hand 1: 3betting is fine. Calling is fine. Folding is even fine. A lot of it depends on how the guy plays vs 3bets and how he plays post flop.

If he doesn't fold to 3bets, and fights for a lot of pots postflop, I'd probably not 3bet it.

In non 3bet pots, if he cbets gives up...I'd call a lot.

If he's bet bet betting all the time, I'd set mine.

If he's not straight forward, but not in auto barrel mode, I'd fold.

Hand 2: you can raise or call. Raising looks fos to a thinking player, but this guy probably isn't going to recognize that your value range is so narrow on a flop like this.

You can call as well. If he tends to barrel though, I'd probably just raise the flop.