Since micro says the thread is dying, let's talk about overbetting.
For value: Typically I over bet when villain's range looks very strong. Either draws all got there and I can beat their draws or all draws missed and they are either calling a big bet or nothing, etc. I will do this against about any villain, but doesn't happen that much.
As a bluff:
- Against donks: I've done this very little, but the spot where I think it'll work and has a place is in pots where you take a weak line. Like b/c/b where you think villain has a weak range, but will call any normal bet because he'll perceive it as cheap. I'd really only use it in this scenario vs a donk who will just be scared of the big bet (obv a certain type of donk, not the ones that don't care and are gambling).
- Against regulars: Again, this isn't something I've done much of. Against thinking players, I'd think it'll work well in spots where their hand looks pretty strong, but it's hard for them to be nutted. Like, it's obv they have something like AT on an AJ358r board, and they know it's obv, so when you overbet it looks like you want a call.
I've got a couple hand examples for the last scenario, first a hand were I'm the villain with the obvious weak top pair. I discussed this hand with Inyaface and we both agreed, that while a little strange, it was pretty likely he wanted a call and was expecting me to call a good amount. We also agreed it be a pretty great spot to overbet bluff.
Relevant information is I'm playing 3 handed with these two villains on two tables trying to get 50bb min tables going. Villain is TAG 22/19/6 with high flop and river bet frequencies. He'll see me as solid, but I probably go to showdown too much and my stats are something like 23/19/2.1 and call in the BB vs steal 12%.
At the same time as this hand, but before the river, villain is busy stacking me on the other table AK<JJ aipf.
Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 3 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
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SB: $209.40
Hero (BB): $200.00
BTN: $201.00
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with A
J
BTN raises to $7,
1 fold, Hero calls $5
Flop: ($15.00) 6
4
A
(2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $8.00, Hero calls $8
Turn: ($31.00) 2
(2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $18.00, Hero calls $18
River: ($67.00) 6
(2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $98.00, Hero ????
The second was against a different villain. We have a bit of history from this session, but I don't know that much about him from before. He has one hugely exploitable leak that I was pounding on. He was opening >60% of SBs overall, and >85% on this session. Yea, free money! I had not folded to an open for awhile, and this was the third time I 3bet him.
First time I 3bet he folded, second time he 4bet and I 5bet bluff shoved and he folded, and the third time, this time, he calls.
As for postflop, i'm not really sure if much had happened of any note other than he'd given up once, I'd just folded once, and maybe we had a little fight for one pot, but no showdowns that I can recall.
Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.com
SB: $506.74
Hero (BB): $405.90
CO: $53.20
BTN: $197.00
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 8
T
2 folds,
SB raises to $6,
Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12
Flop: ($36.00) A
9
K
(2 players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $12.00, SB calls $12
Turn: ($60.00) 9
(2 players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $45.00, SB calls $45
River: ($150.00) 6
(2 players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $175.00
So, what do you think of my theories on when to use the overbet, and what do you think of the two hands I posted?