Quote:
Originally Posted by futuredoc85
you have no outs if he continues, the flop is drawy so he's not going to fold many made hands even if they are weakish (88-TT, J8o or w/e), 70 hands isnt a meaningful sample either. The thought process is good but a hand like A3 or even 98cc would be infinitely better for this kind of play.
Other than the diamonds the board isn't that draw heavy, only A5/A3/65 have gutshots so I like this play better on this board than say Jh6s5s or QT8r which hits the connector cards in villain's range. I do agree that the cbet % isn't meaningful since it could be he cbet 1/1 or 10/10 in that sample.
peru, I don't agree with your thought process to c/r ANY board. That would just be lighting money on fire. You call because your hand plays well multiway, there is a huge fish in the hand, and you have good relative position on the pfr. In general check/raising two tone boards as a bluff isn't a great idea because you are repping a much wider range (nuts/draws/bluffs) than you would be repping on a rainbow or monotone board (nuts or bluffs) so an observant villain might be more likely to call the flop range with something like TT here.
Also people don't cbet as often 3way pots as they do HU, especially with a fish that's likely to call a bet on the flop light.
My plan for this hand would be to call pf, c/r if I nail the flop (two pair+) or if flop a draw c/c in hopes of trapping the BTN in the hand. I MIGHT c/r as a bluff if a flop like this came, BTN folds, I think CO is the type of player that won't float the without TPGK or a strong draw, but it's definitely not something I plan on doing when I make the call preflop. Also has futuredoc said, you'd like to have at least some sort of backdoor draw in case you get called.
I would probably make the bet size $17-$18 just to squeeze a little more FE out of the play. Of course, when called you are check/folding any turn. Except maybe a ten or diamond, but even then you need a good read of what kind of range villain is calling the flop with and whether he can fold a good part of that range to further aggression.
Last edited by jgunnip; 07-18-2008 at 11:02 PM.