Thanks Eggs. Real tired of the incessant condescension from this group who thinks this is such a simple spot and that it is 'always a shove because hey we have Kings' or 'oh the 3.7k must mean SO much to you, just fold'. C'mon. I'm just trying to make the smartest play given all the factors at hand. When we factor in we still get value vs his underpairs (and his Ax that connects) a lot of the time when we stop and go on non-Ace boards--blindly ripping it here seems sub-optimal

^^Just wanna make it clear I have no idea if those #'s are accurate, but that's pretty much how (I think) you have to model the situation. I don't think they're too far off from reality though--you gain like $600 from in $EV from 1st place alone when you double up and that *in theory* should be the biggest driver of $EV change.

Truly don't think it's trivial. In fact with my assumptions its breakeven $EV.

But I think if you have like <12bb or so I think it's a ship.

That's the right of the big stack.

You don't get hyper aggro with a big stack on the bubble?

Yeah, the plan may be to check/fold and put survival over realizing your equity given it is the stone cold bubble. And villians that "know" this can rip everything - because they probably have 5x-10x many chips as OP and are not at risk to bubble.

How many UTG raisers do you think you have any preflop fold equity against w these facts? None or zero? As far as results oriented thinking, if this were true you would be on board for a stop and go because the A did not hit until the river and OP may have had fold equity on the flop, but you still think preflop ripping it, good game you are out is still the "best" play?

So I know the feeling that OP has.

You played a hand correctly but you are wondering if there is a way that you could have avoided a bad beat. OP, the move you made was +EV.

This is the wrong way to look at the situation. You are forgetting the fact that someone of the time, or most of the time you will not get action. Ie. he bets the flop small and you shove and they fold.

I understand it's +EV. That doesn't mean there aren't other +EV routes. Also in this spot there is a difference between chip EV and $$EV. Lastly its fine if I don't get action post flop sometimes. If we don't get 100% maximum value out of every hand it's not a disaster when we avoid complete ruin.

Ultimately I think the only wrong answers here are ones that believe this is 'simple'

It is a disaster to bust a non-micro stack on the stone bubble for sure.

If we actually knew that 1) villain has an ace and 2) villain will never fold preflop, then flatting and getting in on non-ace flops is great.

The problem is we don't know these things. 1) He may fold something like A7s if we jam pre, but we let him see the flop and outflop us. 2) We may very often fold the best hand on ace-high flops when he has 99 or KQ or whatever. 3) We can still bust on non-ace hi flops, for example when he has 66 and it comes T63 or he has 98s and it comes 982 or whatever.

I'm jamming KK here but I think hands as strong as TT or AK are probably jammed by almost everyone, and probably shouldn't be in this exact spot.

Yes, AK and TT are probably flat calls here. You should be jamming a really tight range here, but earlier in the bubble period you can jam a wide range to take advantage of the big stacks wide range.

If you flat KK, you are often don't get the money in, and in those cases you are always way ahead.

I've been in a similiar spot before in a $1600 WSOP Circuit main where I won a $75 super to get in.

I had KK vs. A8. Yes, I jammed, yes, he rivered miracle flush, yes the min cash meant something to me.

5 years later, I just shrug my shoulders and say that it wasn't meant to be.

If you can't take the loss, you'll never be the boss.

Platitudes about playing for the win and not the mincash are worthless. You play tournaments to make money. The value of the mincash makes some plays that are +cEV also be -$EV. Identifying those and properly adjusting is a major component of tournament profitability.

Another example, I had about 14 BB in the Venetian MSPT main event, with 455 players left, paying 450. Busting in this spot is ICM suicide, regardless of the fact that I was playing the tourney to make the $450k first prize, not the $2100 mincash. I have to beat 5 players to win $2100, then would have to beat another 150 or so to win the next $2100. Doubling my stack doesn't come CLOSE to doubling its cash value.

I got dealt 99 UTG+1, and had several good, competent players with lots of chips at the table. As gross as it felt, it's just a fold. Jamming wins chips, loses money. If I min-open off of 14 BB, they know I either have AA or I'm raise-folding. Also, even if I don't get 3b, if the BB flats, I'm in a terrible spot on almost all flops, without chips to maneuver, and every chip I put into the pot is -$EV.

That said, I'm jamming KK there quite happily.

For those who think shoving the kings preflop is automatic, what are the stack levels of the hero and villian where you alter your strategy at the bubble? Black Thought talked about a 3bb stack as a microstack, but do you change your strategy with a 5bb stack, 10bb stack or if villain only had a 12bb stack?

Personally, I hate these 15% payouts rather than the old 10%, where the min cash was an actual double up because they still pull the prize money to pay the extra 5% disproportionately from the 10-2%s payouts.

If you lose this hand on the bubble, you also miss the future equity from the loose play (double or leave cuz the payouts are so flat, so no real icm issues) for the next hour after the bubble breaks. Every main event i have played has a crazy hour after the bubble breaks but I have no real way to calculate the value of missing this time. My antidotal experience is that it is significantly easier to double up a small to average stack 1/2 hour after the bubble then a 1/2 hour before the bubble breaks.

I think examining all the options, it ultimately comes down to what is your short term goal- double up or make the money. If it is make the money, just fukcing fold the next three hands without looking at the cards and save yourself the anguish. If its to double up - jam it in. A combo of the two? Stop and go and evaluate after you see 71% of the cards.