1k/2k/2k..151 left. 150 paid ($3.7k mincash)

Villain Utg has heaps, makes it 5k
Hero has 26k in SB with KK.

I know this sounds like a silly question but do we just flat KK here and get it in on no Ace boards? If so do we jam ourselves over safe flops or wait to be jammed on? Or just rip now?

Allin.

Pretty easy jam

From risk reward perspective (when you are literally guaranteed to cash if you don't bust in next couple hands), I really don't think it's that simple. Utg has so many Ax hands here on bubble. Looking for a safe flop makes a lot of sense. It's a disaster to bust here.

Everyone who has ever won a poker tournament: "All in."

This is why you fail, grasshopper.

^^^^
if only this was true

calculate the value of having a 21k (10.5bb)stack if I call and fold the ~23% of time an Ace flops without a King (and cash) vs the value of ripping it pre and having 57k (28.5bb) and cashing if I win vs ripping it pre and have 0k and bubbling in a loss. What % of the time do I win on non-Ace flops when I then shove?

Not being results-oriented. I did tank consider calling here but instead decided on ripping it pre and ended up bubbling this event (to AQo >>> 5724A runout). We don't have AA here. KK is much more vulnerable in THIS EXACT spot and feels like the incremental EV of gaining the 18bb can't make up for risk of ruin in this one specific instance. But please throw some #s at me to prove me wrong (and prove my shove right given chip value) and get this bad taste out of my mouth.

I guess first of all you need to remember that if a min-cash matters then you are playing too high. Survival and cashing are important, and there is nothing wrong with being cautious when you have a short stack. But ultimately your goal has to be going deep and seizing a big prize.

With a stack as short as yours, you are on life support. You cannot pass up an opportunity to increase your stack here, when you are behind exactly one hand, and are a heavy favorite against every other holding. Your stack increases by a third if he folds. If he calls, unless he has AA, you are going to be a favorite, anywhere from 2-to-1 over hands like the one he had, as much as 4-to-1 favorite over underpairs and even better odds than that if he calls off with connectors.

You are saying that you are not being result oriented, so try to put the beats behind you and continue to make correct plays, as you did here when you pushed over his bet. It is a big leak to be result-oriented. It will make you gun-shy and your doubt will prevent you from making the correct play.

Seems lazy to come into this community and ask people to run #s on a spot you can do yourself imo

Actually I think it's lazy to use you the words 'always' or 'never' regarding poker strategy and specific spots. $25 tourney or $2500 or $25000, we should be taking all factors into account to generate the highest ROI given stack and circumstance. To say we act the exact same early day 1 as we do on stone bubble can't be optimal. For example, shoving with 3bb here is awful given you can fold to the money and are doubling to an insignificant stack.

Not saying shoving is wrong here. Just that I don't think this is as simple as it's being made out to be.

obvious jamball bro

Don't be results oriented. It's all one session... I'm gonna be out there next week and I'm preparing myself for this spot... if it happens well I will capitalize on the experience. Bubble spots are a right of passage. Carry on brother.

You can add about 18K (about 1.5 buyins) chips to your loss if you bust to take into account the mincash. With KK, against a top 20% hand, you are about 75% to win, so it is an easy push. You need to push a tight range (maybe JJ+) though, unless you think he is folding a significant percentage of the time. I would be defending a lot from the BB. In this situation, I would probably have a flat call range from the SB, maybe AQ+/77-TT and maybe some suited broadway.

100%. Just like you cant win a big tournament on the first day, you cant win a tournament at the money bubble with a 13bb stack. Stone cold bubble with 150 players probably lasts 3-7 hands.

You also can't win the tournament fold KK preflop. Not sure about the stone bubble, but if you fold your way into the money, you can cost yourself a change at a final table place. If you double up and have 28xBB, 4.5 buyins, then you have a chance.You are doubling up 75-80% of the time depending on how loose he is raising. This is an easy push. If your hand was AK or TT, it would be close whether to push, fold, or call. If you want to play tight because the $3.7K is important, than do it, but it isn't correct strategy.

While I agree that focus should be on winning/deep run rather than min. cash, in this spot I'm fine with flatting pre and then jamming a non-ace flop. If you feel that (a) villain will be calling any shove here with an Ace, and (b) you have at least some fold equity post-flop (villain's stack is not so large that he will float/call your post-flop shove), then there is a lot of sense in playing it this way and giving yourself a chance to fold if there is an Ace on the flop and forcing villain to fold his overcard. If he calls your post-flop shove here, then you're no worse off than if you had shoved pre, but you give yourself a chance to get away and still cash. If villain does not have an ace, he will be wary of you having one and may not push post-flop. Lots of potentially good things that can happen here if you flat -- mostly premise that villain is likely calling your pre-flop shove. Pushing here is easy, but it's not the only way to play the hand.

Nobody is talking about folding preflop here. This is just about best approach to continue

Hmm I guess if the cash means that much to you and you don’t mind giving up roi long term, I would honestly just fold (basically if you are guaranteed a cash if you can fold your way into the money... which should be easy on 13bbs and 1 left to the lol min cash).

However let’s look at this another way. We are giving up a huge chance to double/ win some much needed bbs here. I say jam and just say it wasn’t meant to be if we somehow lose.

This is why it’s proper to play mtts you are rolled for. If a min cash ever means a lot to you, honestly you shouldn’t play the tournament bc you are most likely getting exploited. I say jamski, when Villian has hand he can’t call with, we pick up 9k (increase stack by 34.6% without showdown isn’t too bad). If he has a hand, we are only in trouble against AA. ak/ax has equity against us. Other than that we are gold for a double. If you are going to pass on spots like this, again don’t play the mtt and play a level where your bankroll allows. Money isn’t made in my mincashes. Winning tourny poker players win more than par. Let’s go for the f’ing W.

Finally, let’s say Villian has AA. Sometimes it’s not meant to be. Honestly me personally... if I got it in against AA in said spot, I would
Be a little bummed but you didn’t play bad... and just ran bad at a crucial juncture. I’m never going to say someone did something wrong here ripping kk.

Your range needs to be way tighter right on the bubble than earlier on the bubble. Early on you can push reasonably light because the big stack is opening so wide. Whether or not you get called that would be an opportunity to build a stack.

The problem with looking for a safe flop is you are still 60% to win against a 30% range with KK on an ace high flop. By flat calling, you lose chips when he folds postflop. This hand is too strong to play this way.

I like the talk about winning the tournament and making the final table but it is just unrealistic optimism at this point. I like the fantasy that folding into the money may cost you a seat at the final table with 140 players to get through with a small stack.

I assume this was event 48. Average stack at the bubble was 127k, OP has 1/5 average stack and is probably the short stack at his table and one of the shorter in the tournaments. He has a a target on his back in any pot he plays with a bigger stack (which I assume is the entire table). Its not 3bbs like Black Thought proposed earlier but its pretty close given average stacks have 65bbs.

He does not get 200% of his buyin unless he finishes 72 or better. At this point, it seems more important to cash, then play for the double up once the bubble bursts.

Win the battle, then try to win the war. The first goal with a small stack should always be to cash if it is within reach vs not cash.

What's 1st place, like a million?

With 151 left and your stack you prob have like, what, 1/400 shot of winning? Maybe a bit more, could be a lot less though?

So you likely have ~$4k in $EV just from first place give or take from your current stack as is. Min cash is less than that

At first I thought it was an easy jam, honesty dont think flatting is crazy now

The money in large tournaments is made by making the final table, whether WSOP events or $20 online MTTs. It may seem like a fantasy to make the final table,but if you play for that in 50 tournament, you will make some final tables.
If you play for the mincash you will get blinded down and have losing results.

You have to consider situations, and not play recklessly. However, worrying about a safe flop with KK is a nitty losing play.

This thread is one big exercise in results-oriented thinking.

I mean, what is our plan on Ax boards? To check/fold? If I'm the villain and I know that, I'm going to rip with 100% of my range, knowing that I can blow you off of everything other than AK/AQ. And on "safe" boards, do we realize our equity enough if we donk jam or is villain going to overfold?

And even if we're a little bit worried about getting outdrawn (which we shouldn't be with KK) isn't it better to jam and hope that maybe villain overfolds some Ax pre?

First paid $427k. With a 1/5 stack of average stack with 150 left, i would think the odds are closer to 1/750.

Yeah you're right he has 1/5th the average stack, 1/750 is definitely more reasonable.

Some #'s I'm basically pulling out of my ass (IDK if you can do ICM calcs with this many players or if that's too resource intensive.

OK so OP probably has, I honestly don't know anywhere from $4k to $5k in tournament $EV or something like that with his current stack, and he doesn't even come close to doubling that if he doubles up, he prob gains like 25-50% additional EV. Chips should be extremely nonlinear in value at this point for OP, no? Where losing hurts much more ICM-wise than winning helps.

So if he wins he gains like $1.5-$2k in tournament EV if he loses he loses let's say $4.5k in $EV he's gotta win something like 75% of the time to justify GII here?

It's honestly super close. Once the bubble pops we 'd only be losing like $1500 in $EV when we ship because we'd get the min prize and in that case we'd only need ~50% equity to break even in terms of $EV so there's definitely a significant bubble factor in play.