No, we beat tons of hands. 96, 109, 8x, xdxd (w/no king), 99 vs. range we lose against which is overpair, set, or two pair. And none of those make sense while also empirically happening much less frequently than draws. flop bet is fine, open shove the turn, watch draws fold/idiots call with draw. If someone has KdJd then whatever they got lucky. Otherwise it just looks like a draw to me.

You played it perfectly, but if the preflop raiser folded I'm getting to showdown unless I think thunderman1 is good, which doesn't seem likely given his screen name.

UTG can have a wide range here(medium pairs, 99, SD's/FD's). His line makes no sense and he is likely a donkey/station and I'm not really concerned with him.

CO's line doesn't represent QQ+ unless he decided to slowplay pre(and on the flop as well), and it doesn't represent a set. I gotta put the majority of his range on like 99/TT(maybe JJ) AdQd, AdJd, etc. We're likely flipping vs. his range which is fine since there is so much money in the pot. On the turn people will bet IP with a ton of hands now that everyone checked to them.

I just don't see how raising that amount on the flop ever leaves us to any good spots on the turn as half the deck looks like crap. If CO reraises flop and UTG folds do we shove? Or visa versa? If just one of them calls the flop do we shove any turn? We're in a crappy spot sure but there's no need getting into a crappier one. If you think your hand is best then raise a lot more and make it any easy decision on the turn. If you're unsure, then calling off one street and trying to see a cheap turn is better. Unless you think CO raises here a ton with his whole range then probably a raise to like 180 is better.

I'm pretty much trying to say the same thing as norwoodmatt.

we raise the flop for value vs draws / spaz but cant committ with 2nd pair no redrawbeeing called by two guys

hand is pretty much wp imo, i would not change a thing.

HUH? Man u never make any sense at least not to me. The hand was wp IMO

If the CO bets 60% of pot and gets called I am folding, betting 40% I am probably not

edit scratch that I misread the HH and realised we are not the PFR I think turn is a sigh fold and if the PFR folds turn we should be calling down

ok let me ask a question. once you take the line ssnyc did on the flop three things can happen:
A They fold in which case your hand didnt matter you could have had 32o. do you agree?
B They call. What cards are you going to stack off on turn with? think about this as its why your hand didnt matter in situation A.
C They rr flop. are you calling?

if you examine those 3 questions you will see why the line taken is so bad imho. as you basically turned your hand into a bluff. i think we can agree that once you take the flop line the hand is never getting checked down on turn and river.

i think the key decision in tournament poker is whether to bet the flop and what size to bet. and i think the mistake people make is just tossing out bets on the flop without thinking about where thats going to leave them on turn and river. generally you shouldnt need to make any difficult decisions on turn and river in tournaments when you took the lead on the betting on the flop. so you can cut down the mistakes you make on turn and river just by thinking more about your flop play.

btw my answers to the questions would be
A hand doesnt matter if you are c/f the turn when a bad card comes (everycard is bad except for non diamond 2 or 3 and possibly non diamond T so 7 cards)
B i think if a non diamond 2 or 3 comes you have to c/r all in as you know they will bet you have no fe when you do this you are doing this to get all the money in on the turn and get acton from worse hands not just hands that beat you. any other card that comes you have put yourself in a horrendous spot. I would c/r all in if a K-J comes that isnt a diamond given the line you took on flop.
C you have to stack off once you raise this flop the size you did and get rr imho.

That was actually really insightful from norwoodmatt and in this particular hand I think he has it spot on.

This small non-thinking raise is probably what I would have done too so having this thought through was really helpful.

Matt I think the questions posted above are valid but one of the reasons to raise the flop is to narrow the field and having failed to do that we have to re-evaluate on the turn. I am not looking to fold against a single opponent but against two it makes much more sense

agreed...Matt...well written and I will reread when my brain is less tired but I am more inclined to stack off on the turn vs a single opponent. I obviously did not expect both to come along and when they do I need to factor that into the next decision...

isnt bet fold turn better than check-fold?

don't think this works given their stacks

but my point is dont get into that spot! As once you get one caller the second caller is going to happen a lot as all possible drawing hands and even 1 pair hands have been priced in. so we cant be surprised. and we learnt nothing really. as there calling range is going to be so wide here. the only thing we learnt is if they are good players they dont have a made hand. as if they have an overpair or a set they have to rr your flop raise. so if they are both good players i think your hand is good on the turn. as even with a FD and overcard(s) a good player is going to rr rather than call that flop raise of yours. The trouble is we all know 90% of online players are completely irrational and near impossible to read. so we just have to trade mistakes and make them make bigger ones than us (copyright Sklansky lol!) rather than try and read stuff into their actions. unless we know they are good players that is futile. by raising big on this flop or calling you let them make big mistakes. by raising the size you did you are going to often be the one making the big mistake on the turn as how can you possibly know whether your hand is good or not v two randoms.

I three bet pre ... when you don't you are really just playing for a set.

Matt, there's a couple of points in this that I disagree with but for the sake of clarity I am going to try and address them 1 by one

This just isn't true, we can consider the minbet from the open raiser a check and given the board texture the "check" is much more likely to be a sign of weakness than of strength. The CO has a ton of stuff that misses this flop and some stuff it hit's. He rarely has an overpair occasionally JJ but generally not QQ+. We are actually pretty unlucky to get called in both spots creating the problem on the turn. Also we are not pricing in an underpair given they have between 2 and 5 cards to improve

Well we were betting the flop for value not necessarily for information though one is obviously a by product of the other. If all we have learned is that they don't have a better made hand than us then thats pretty significant in itself and makes the value bet on the flop profitable.

assuming they are good players in this spot is generally a mistake, we know the OR isn't when he minbets calls anything on that flop with that texture.


We have to re-evaluate the turn when they both call the flop, the flop raise wasn't big and given the size of the pot and the hands that we get value from along with the amount of turn cards that we like effectively checking this flop behind when we have the best hand a ton of the time is a mistake. Just because we have induced a mistake from one or other of the two opponents doesn't mean we then have to give them the implied odds when we check turn and call off with very little equity against that part of their combined ranges we are behind

this is just wrong