Ok, so we are in a $460 tourny and have a stack of 90kish maybe at 2k bb level. Utg is a young kid who covers us, he limps, sb is an older snug guy with 230k and huge stack and completed. I’m in bb with 75o (black) and just bump table. We see flop of 689 (rainbow). Sb check, I check from bb, and utg makes it 4k into 8k. Sb calls, I make it 16k. Utg calls and sb folds.

Turn is A of spades and 2 spades on board. I kinda think and bet 12k into 44k to set up a clean river jam close to pot size. Villian calls quickly. River is a Q of spades. I elect to jam. Hoping he has some odd set, 2 pair, strong A he can’t fold. He kinda tank calls with J-10hh and we lose. I’m like wtf bc he didn’t snap. I wanna say I ripped 73k into pot of 68k. Hmm how bad did I do here?

I assume I should bet more on turn so when villian just folds river and to charge them. Can you help with sizing? Do we ever check turn to raise or jam over turn spew from villian? I felt A was a good card to check kinda bc it hits his range and not mine. River I think I should prolly check to induce spew. As played i think I only get called by sets, odd 2 pairs, strong A that villian can’t fold etc. I think he folds correctly a ton so my river jam may just be really bad.

Final note- wow this hand made me go wtf. I didn’t expect villian to have J-10hh. I assume my sizing on turn is goofy bad bc it doesn’t charge enough for villian to draw with those portions of his range. Thanks for any thoughts input? I always find these bb hands where I don’t raise pre odd bc I normally play fairly aggro and don’t get into pots often where I complete sb or check from bb in limped pots.

Yeah, you really need to bet more on turn. This is in part because at that bet size you're giving draws to better hands the correct price to call, and because your hand is so strong that you probably have to get it in on the river even when a bad card comes. Your hand is strong but vulnerable, so get more money in while you're ahead.

I think you want to bet yourself on the flop with your value and strong draws here. This board hits an average sb complete range pretty hard and UTG will be reasonably polar (either smashed it with a set or bricked it with overcards, although they do have some one pair hands like AXs with a pair or overpairs that were trying to trap preflop), so UTG will check back quite frequently and allow SB to realize equity against you. Most of the hands that UTG would bet with (AT, KT, QT, JT, sets, 77, overpairs) will either call your bet or raise you so there's more value in building a pot vs the sb on the flop all of the times that UTG has bricked. SB can continue vs your bet as wide as something like 56 for bottom pair and a gutter or like 47s/j7o open ender type hands.

Once you check, UTG bets and SB calls, it's def time to start raising here. 16k-20k looks good.

IMO turn is a spot for a geometric bet size - 2/3 pot sets up 2/3 pot river shove. You charge draws and get lots of value from hands that want to call down or call-call-fold, and can balance this line with bluffs easily.

River is bleh, still prob strong enough to go for it, especially while holding a spade. Some people will just call off like QTs that called you twice with a double gutter and rivered a pair or AT for top pair. The sets and 2 pairs (A9s, A8s, A6s are possible for a villain that limps UTG) that made it here aren't going anywhere. There's not much to induce bluffs from so stick it in and hope for the best.

I agree with most of this post-- the reasoning for betting out makes a ton of sense on a board like this-- but I also overlooked this part in my explanation for larger turn bet sizing. I think I've come around to that it's better to choose a sizing in this spot that will allow you to shove the same fraction of the pot on the river rather than set up a pot-sized shove when you have to underbet like this to do so.

I would have bet on the flop (probably 4k or 5k). But what you did worked out well.

As played my raise sizing OOP with 1 caller on the flop would have been 20k. Assuming UTG calls I would then jam the turn with 66k into a 52k pot. With deeper stacks I would either bet about 35k or repeat the bet sizing on the turn to make it look like I have a 7, but here that would be over 30% effective stack so not worth doing.

As played on the turn we have to bet. UTG is unlikely to bet after we c/r the flop. I would either bet 16k or 28k to 32k. Since we have 70k the 28k+ sizing is not going to work (as it is > 40% effective stack). I would often bet the 16k again on the turn as it is just above 22% effective stack size. The other option is to jam and just take it down. I have jammed in a similar situation and was actually called by guy who had a double draw and an overcard (which wasn't good because I had AA). He did hit his draw and won about a 320,000 chip pot and it was in a $800 tourney at the Venetian... So I guess what I am saying is I don't hate a jam here especially because we are OOP.

On the river the Q completing flush and straight draws is like the worst possible card. I would either bet 12k to 16k and fold to a raise or check and either call or fold depending on the speed of the bet or any other tells.

I think the turn bet needs to be larger because there is a chance that some rivers will kill your action and the villain is not going to be folding a set to any turn bet. The villain might fold a crappy 2 pair to a large bet, but I think it's much more likely that you get called. If the river is another A, a 7, a 5, or a T, the player might be able to find a fold with 2 pair. They might also get away from a set.

I think the play is either bet large on the turn or check with the intention to crai (I would do this if I had a suspicion that the villain is aggressive or if my table imagine is that I can be pushed around).

As the hand played, you need to bet the river. You are giving up too much value. I would probably bet 20 - 25K.

I ripped for over pot on the river. I think it’s ok just a bit unlucky- sizing on turn needs to be bigger no question.

Idk villian was youngish but I wouldn’t say aggro. He limped J-10hh utg on like 50-60bbs which I consider to be a massive leak/ east hand to open for a min or 2.2x raise. He had 3bet me in sb Vs button spot where I opened 7-3o from button (lol I know this is really bad- I just felt spot was good bc sb and bb were playing fit/ fold). Def not a great or even ok open but sometimes I think it’s ok to open as a pure steal.

I consider a X raise on turn but I felt my line was at a spot where I need to bet turn + I felt
He checks back turn a lot bc most live players are fairly nittish. My only problem with hand on my end also- I took like 10 seconds on the turn to think. I think I should have bet more on turn and set up a say 60-90% pot bet that was an all in on river. Prolly 50-70% would be ideal.

My math was bad. I ended up jamming like 80k into 68k pot on river (not sure exact numbers). I feel villian is almost never calling with worse unless a set/ 2 pair/ maybe AK if they feel super underrepped/ etc

I think you will get folds from 2pr and better on river so something like 2/3 and fold to a ship

Flop when he goes b-c he's generally 2pr and better, he certainly has 66, 88, 99, A8, and A9 and he probably won't ever fold even vs something huge.