Quote:
Originally Posted by 3for3poker
This is a close spot.
My rough calculations: For the side pot, we are about 42.5%, so will get 5.1BB from that pot. For the main pot, we are about 29%, so we will get about 2.2 BB from that pot.
We need to put in 7, and will get back about 7.3, so this is a small +Cev spot under my assumptions.
Even though we are still far from the money, there is still SOME risk premium. Add in the fact that we have just paid the BB, so we will have just the SB and then a bunch of free hands...
A lot depends on how well the table will respond to my 7BB shoves in the next orbit(s). My experience is that we get more FE than we should in these spots.
Not knowing these calculations, I think I'd have folded. Seeing the numbers, I'd still fold, but it is close.
Its going to be 6 bb shoves in the next orbit. We started the hand with 8 bb's we put one in as the ante and one in as the BB. So our Fold Equity will be less than what you thought it would be.
My experience is that we sometimes get folds (and the BB will show us the 72o, 83o, 62o, 32o etc) but we often won't. I shoved 98s with about 7 bb's and got called by 96s and of course lost when a 6 hit the flop)