Only 3 hands on villian but VPIP = 100.

Poker Stars $2.50+$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: t3980 M = 132.67
CO: t2770 M = 92.33
Hero (BTN): t2960 M = 98.67
SB: t1510 M = 50.33
BB: t2940 M = 98
UTG: t2960 M = 98.67
UTG+1: t3020 M = 100.67
UTG+2: t3970 M = 132.33
MP1: t2890 M = 96.33

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN with 4 4
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t20, 2 folds, CO calls t20, Hero calls t20, SB calls t10, BB checks

Flop: (t100) K 9 4 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets t80, SB calls t80, BB folds, UTG+2 calls t80, CO folds

Turn: (t340) Q (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t285, SB calls t285, UTG+2 folds

River: (t910) J (2 players)
SB bets t1125 all in, Hero ????

Puke, fold?

snap call. end thread

I mostly call, though I might fold if his timing was super scary

lol wat

level?

The guy shoved river pretty quick.

I would fold. His line definitely makes it seem like he was drawing up until the river, and if he has a two pair-type hand on the river, he shoves it for value on this board rarely. I think he has a T more than 75 percent of the time.

Your overestimating the range most people in 2.75's shove with I call

love your line until the river...

I guess I call as too many TP/2 pair hands are still in his range...I mean he can have a 10 sure but does he have it often enough?

not a snap anything but I think I tank call

I don't think many 2 pairs shove on river which leaves me thinking he is pushing cause 1) he has a straight and knows I'm checking behind 2) He can only win if I fold. The way I saw it on the river I had only invested 385 in the hand. Calling and losing left me with a pretty grim stack but pitching it leaves me with 2500 about.

EDIT: I probably should stop thinking at the point that I realize it is a 2.50 donkament and call.

seriously? It is a $2 tourney...I think AJ may call the river and 2 pair will never ever fold

Maybe not, but the question is whether those hands would shove themselves, not whether they'd call or fold if we shoved.

Yeah, I do tend to give my opponents too much credit, but it seems like every time I don't listen to my gut I regret it.

In retrospect there is literally only 4 cards in the deck I'm worried about seeing, this call seems easier and easier the more I think about it.

I folded and he showed K3o. Glad to see so many 2p2ers see through this bluff so easily, gives me hope for myself.

I am just saying that to state that a villan won't felt two pair here seems a bit nitty...regardless of the chronology of the river action

Eh, doesn't matter. I've started tournaments 100/100 after 3 hands. That's because I got dealt AA, KK and then AK. Doesn't mean a thing.

Nah, I don't think so man. Think you gotta call. Like if you had 40 hands on the guy, and he's never made a bet in his life, and his super weak and passive and all that stuff, then you can fold.

I mean, here's something to write on a yellow sticky and put on your computer: shoves from randoms, especially on the river, are usually extremely strong. But that doesn't mean you're always beat here.

That said, you have a set.. I think this guy just turned 2-pair with QJ and KJ enough to get this in. Obviously, one draw just got there, and that's AT, and he does have that a lot, but to look at the combinations on hands he has:

Beat you:
AT: 16
= 16.

You beat:
KQ: 9
KJ: 9
= 18.

You could even add a few other sets, but even then, you obviously have the odds to call given money in the pot. In order to fold, you'd have to really discount his 2-pair hands quite a bit, and add in some premium pairs for sets, and I kinda think that's playing a bit too scared.

I'm on the tank call team.

EDIT: Oh wait. Any T beats you. Carefully reading OP FTW.

I actually think we need to fold. Rule of randoms shoving river cards = extremely strong is more relevant given that too many hands are beating us now.

Awesome.

But I wouldn't let this result convince you to always call these shoves. These really are often super strong hands, and I'd be very careful making this call until we learn more about a specific villain.

Obviously, put a note on this villain, but don't assume all villains are playing this way. Your note on villain could be massively +EV when you induce him to bluff in a future hand and take his entire stack. I don't think your fold was terrible by any means.

Though I guess as a general rule, it might be terrible if common sense says to never, ever fold a set in a $2.50 donkament? Does it say that?

Anyone play based on timing tells in spots like these?

how much time did it take our opponent to make a decision & what inference would you draw from it?

What hand would he have w/ a T in it? KT maybe, T9 possibly but less likely imo. I think this is a call, other than a ten we're behind pocket K's, Q's, J's, or 9's all of which besides 99 are pretty unlikely considering there was no raise pre.

I call


edit: I suppose random donk could call flop w/ the gutter and possibly have JT here

Oh hai. How about:

KT: 12
QT: 12
JT: 12
T9: 12
AT: 16
= Like 64 combinations of hands?

I hear you can discount AT given action... but you can't discount it to zero if villain is a spaz and is willing to check/call 2 streets with who knows what... and then shove river. And all the other hands are possible if not likely in this tournament.

This

Why would he have a T? This move makes much more sense as a bluff than as a vb

Where is the rest of your sentence?

This move makes much more sense as a bluff than as a vb... when villain is a random?

This move makes much more sense as a bluff than as a vb... when villain is very passive?

This move makes much more sense as a bluff than as a vb... when villain is potentially on tilt?

This move makes much more sense as a bluff than as a vb... when villain's pre-flop range + action doesn't add up?

This move makes much more sense as a bluff than as a vb... when we have a strong read that tells us so?

Here, we have no reads, don't know how villain is playing, and don't know what this shove means at all. Saying it looks like a bluff doesn't mean anything... all we know is that it's an overshove on a dangerous board.

Experience tells us these massive overshoves, especially on the river, from randoms, are often extremely strong hands. I'd go with that read here and fold; I don't think calling is a big mistake, but I don't think it's optimal. Sometimes we're getting bluffed, but that's OK.

This was one of those times, and it's good to know villain's can sometimes have weak hands here, but that's why results don't matter... he will have a very strong hand much more often.

I hate to be a simpleton, but isn't this hand one of those examples on why in Harrington on Hold'em he advocates "never" (obv nothing is absolute in poker) folding sets? Just thought I'd throw that out there.

Wtf I don't even know what you're talking about. What massive overshove?

If it goes check check check to the river and someone goes allin for 100BB in a 3BB pot, that's what I call a massive overshove that's usually very strong. This is pretty much a standard bluff on a scary board. If he's got a T it's pure coincidence. And you only need to win ~30% to make it a good call.

I would not expect many villains to be turning a medium-strength made hand that he thought was good on the turn into a bluff on the river often at all.