Quote:
Originally Posted by gatoalicia
Let me use this post to fire a question that is scratching the back of my mind lately...
From a mathematical point of view, isn't that bet on the flop a bit too small, as betting just 1/2 of the pot will give flush draws the right pot odds to call?
This is something I am struggling with. On one hand, you wanna induce mistakes in the opponents by making them call bets that they will lose most of the time, but on the other hand you wanna keep the weaker hands playing so you can get more profit...
Been lately betting my hidden sets quite aggressively when wet flops and just get opponents to fold. My bet size when there is two cards for flush and I don't have the same suit is between 2/3 and 3/4 of the pot, as Dan Harrington recommends in his No-Limit tournament series. Is this a bit too conservative? Do you guys prefer a standard 1/2 pot sized bet as a standard, to disguise your hand and make it more difficult to play against? Why?
Thanks for the help guys, this is my first post and the forum looks really interesting.
This is kind of wet board when we're talking about an UTG open and a BTN defend and we're still fairly deep (personally, I consider like 20bb or more in an MTT to be deep--in that respect, we're actually really deep in this hand). It's wet not just because of the FD+SD, but because of the presence of pairs and better in BTN range.
We can expect BTN to have at least {55, KQ, AT, AJ, AQ, occasionally AK (he's got a low 3bet %-age), JT, J9, T9--the list just goes on and on} and especially when you consider the the FD combos of those hands, his continuing range is pretty wide and pretty inelastic to sizing, in other words if he calls 1/2 pot he likely calls pot, and similarly, his folding range (hands like {22} and w/e) is pretty inelastic to sizing meaning he's folding to any bet regardless of sizing
In this situation, I definitely think going bigger is much better because we're kind of just running bad if we run into his folding range and when we run good enough to hit his continuing range we extract max value w/ a bigger bet, since that bigger bet doesn't change his continuing range much if at all compared to the smaller sizing.
Also, this hand is surprisingly vulnerable given the presence of monster draws and FDs and OESD, etc. So if his continuing range just happens to be more elastic than we think, then getting a draw to fold still isn't the worst thing in the world. Especially in a spot like this where we have a tough time folding even when draws do complete. Who likes folding sets?
Also, the times he has a made hand that doesn't have a redraw, we want to get max value from those hands now because those hands hate life when a spade or an ace rolls off--those are bigtime action killers for us in that case. Yet another reason to go bigger.
So, yes I think hero should go like pot and if he's worried about balance he should have enough {AsXs}, maybe {JsTs} too that he can add into his PSB cbet range to balance it out
As for this particular hand, I personally don't ever really fold sets unless it's a ridiculously bad board, which this one decidedly is NOT. It's just so damn hard to make a set, let alone better than a set, that if you're in the habit of folding sets in spots like this you're gonna be in a world of pain. EZ stack off IMO, just bink your boat and collect the chips.
Last edited by jl121; 11-14-2018 at 12:16 PM.