Quote:
Originally Posted by LifeNitFL
I agree with the above in theory and against a good/aggro player I would never fold this hand, but against the tight recs in these $10 tournaments I think we can exploit fold turn. There is a player type at low stakes who simply always has it when they raise pre and double barrel. I called so many times because I "have to" and lost so often that I finally stopped paying these players off with TPMK and my results have improved since. Here given the UTG raise, we lose to AA, KK, occasional QQ, AQ, and KQ, maybe even 55 and 33 sometimes, and only beat QT and the unlikely Q9s.
I can get behind this somewhat, but I think QJ is way too good here and you are overdoing it. You are supposed to call most of your pairs at some frequency here, so if you fold all you 3x, 5x, 6x, you are already heavily exploiting the opponent. If you fold a Q on the turn you are making some big assumptions. If you fold QJ you are essentially folding 100% so your read best be clairvoyant. And if you are wrong you are making a BIG mistake.
Here I filtered EP double barrel for players with VPIP of 15 and less. Yes they are underbluffing significantly, but there are some bluffs, and crucially some middling hands like mid pairs. This kind of player loves to bet hands like TT here because they don't want to face the river bet (it's not a mistake in this instance since you have lots of 6,5,3x to call in theory).
Having plugged this range construciton into GTOW, here's what I got.
Yes, we overfold a lot. Almost 30% overfold. But QJ is still +++EV to continue. And remember, this is worst case scenario against total nits only.