Playing a $800 at Venetian. 50 left and 43 paid. We have 300k and average is like 260k. Ep open to 20k, mp flat button flat I have J9dd bb and call. Flop is 994 with two hearts. Xxxx. Turn 5 black. I lead 35k into 95k. Mp flat, button makes its 90k. I sigh call. Mp folds. River 6. I x he jams. Is this a punt? Villian had 44. In game I knew turn was never a bluff duh but like I’m like can he do this with 10-9 or 8-9? Is this just a standard cooler and we are supposed to punt it off here?

Villian had 26 bb and looked like nitty rec. is this a spot we are supposed to die? 43 make money and 50 left so we preserve stack if we fold river or turn (never folding turn though).

Brutal. I don't think I can fold.

Villain could be doing it with T9s/98s/97s but there are only 3 combos. I doubt Villain could be doing this with a flush draw because he would have bet the flop. Villain can have 55/44 and A9s/K9s/Q9s as well with 9 combos. So if villain isn't bluffing ever then its a fold. In real time though I don't think this would occur to me.

On the money bubble defending BB here multi-way is probably close and may actually be a fold.

Button raise here should set off major alarm bells, as this range should be pretty tight and may not always contain worse 9x other than maybe T9s exactly. I can see argument to actually check turn because I'm not sure we're going to get two streets from worse very often, unless it's exactly an overpair, and I'd assume most of those bet flop. There is value in denying equity to heart draws so I can see the merit in leading turn, but I just think when a lot of money goes in the pot we're going to be screwed. Especially when there's ICM implications.

As played once we get to river we likely just pay off in theory, but against described villain who's very value-heavy folding isn't unreasonable.

From in game and looking at guy- he just gave off some omc vibes. He was like a clean cut 50s white guy that just didn’t look like he was the type to bluff in this spot what do ever. I thought only hands that I would like him to have are 8-9 and 9-10. Even those hands didn’t seem like necessary raises on turn also. Also I think J9dd is a mandatory bb defend here when a min raise. Sure we can get into some dicey spots but that hand flops so well and can easily chip us up to 60-70 bb here if we cooler someone. I consider my game on point so it’s not like I’m going to stack off with J9 on a Jxx board and would play a pot control type style post.

I’m extremely bummed bc it looked like I was coasting to an easy min cash. Ended up calling a 3! From a solid Philly reg with A-10dd in position against his kk and gettin gb lucky when I called his flop and river bet on a run out of flop: Q92 one diamond, Q, A on river. Obviously want the W but getting the min cash is always nice when it’s locked up. I hate it bc like I get this sick in my stomach feeling bc I know the hand is never a bluff- I just cry call hoping that it’s a worse 9 or some spazzy bluff but it’s never going to be in this spot.


Will spew here- this might be my last June vegas trip ever. Idk but this year it’s just been brutal. I caught heat on day 2 of a wsop event but other than that- getting owner has been regular. I get it in 60/40 or 70/30- I’m almost a lock to lose. Flop sets? I’ve flopped one set whole trip and didn’t get paid. Cash games- I get folks to call $170 pre in $2/5 cash with 33 when I have overpair- they call my small cbet to set up a turn jam and then bink their set on the turn. Idk how people handle the swings of this game- sure it’s fun to win tournies but wow the brutality of losing those spots when you play great just crush me. It seems whenever I make a spazzy play lately- I lose but when people do it against me: they bink. I’m being super results orientated here and realize equity is equity- a 70/30 isn’t as wide as we think it is. I just feel like I’m playing game at a fairly high level and run into these annoying spots where I’m destined to lose. I guess at least I made a deep run in a wsop event and will break even this trip in poker tournament buy ins. Last 2 years have been $10-15k losses in mtts buyins. I might have 3-4 cashes in 40-50 mtts in vegas including last 2 summers in vegas: I honestly just don’t get it bc some of the play I’ve seen in event $1600s and $1100s has been laughable. There are a lot of good foreign and American players here no doubt but I’ve seen some real head scratching plays in $1600s (like players that shouldn’t even consider playing $1600- me personally idk how it would be fun to play a tournament one isn’t +ev in). I’ve played against guys that have mills on Hendon mob- idk maybe I’m just confident but they don’t even intimidate me and I feel I can hang with them in mtt poker (cash games- deep stacks with many bbs: sure no way: but 30-60 bb poker: I feel I can play with anyone that isn’t a gto wizard).

What are the blinds in the hand? You keep going back and forth in your posts between BB and chips, and you don't make it clear.

Sorry I posted hand quickly. The blinds were 5/10k. Min open to 20k with 2 callers and me in bb. I had 307k to start hand and was one of the biggest stacks at my table. Average stack for tourny was like 26bb at the time I believe.

To your rant:

After you buy into a MTT, all you really are entitled to is the opportunity to play well.

Each action is a mini reset from the last hand and being a Ted Lasso "goldfish" is critical. Over your last year or so you sometimes (but certainly not always) mention a spazzy move late in the MTT. Often you exit the event shortly after that event. I recommend taking a critical look at your thought process at the meta level to see if you are being impatient, esp. late in a MTT where you have invested a significant amount of time and mental effort. Every serious poker player has taken countless bad beats. Control what YOU can control and develop your own mantra to repeat over and over when you need it.

For what its worth, mine is "Never give up, never give in, and never EVER tilt!"

Run good in your next event!

Beachman

Pretty easy fold river tbh vs 95% of the population especially some dude with omc vibes.

This is a great post! I understand stuff happens in poker tournies etc. it’s just rough because I know I’m playing well for the most part. Sure I might go for it in bluff spots once in a while too much and maybe take 3 betting light/ squeeze spots too hardcore at times but feel I play well for most part.

It just kills me when I play $1-2k tournies which are high end of my buy in range and people do goofy bad stuff and I can’t even make past mid stages. I see all of these players with huge stacks and just go ugh- what does it take to get the donations mid stages?

I understand the variance aspect of tourny poker. If I was winning my spots- I would be having more fun and getting some deep runs.


Btw with your comment- I don’t think I’m being impatient. I just go for it when I see a spot I think is profitable late. I’m always the type going for a win and kinda bypassing icm unless icm is a huge $$$ factor for level I’m at.

Can I ever shove this hand pre? I asked 2 reg mtters and they said this would be a solid jam bc we just gotta get through opener. I agreed with that logic and think it’s a solid squeeze potentially with 2 players that are most likely
Dead money here? Looking back I wish I jammed kinda even though it is a high variance play pre.

TYVM.

I’m not sure if you keep up with current GTO theory. There is overwhelming evidence that you need to switch from chipEV to ICM at the “50% of the field left” point of any MTT.

After the turn raise it's close, just because of the read and the spot. A call is fine ofc, but river looks like a fold based on the final runout and your ICM. It's close, and I don't think anyone here would say it's a horrible call, but live, I probably fold this... online I might call.

+1 for "no way I could fold". Rick's combo breakdown is accurate I think.

Regarding quitting, I would switch to cash. I've run bad in both this year but tourneys are just so much higher variance. If you can find a juicy home game where you live that's an especially good way to regain your confidence imo. Good luck man

Thanks man! I had a cash for 15.7k and 6.1k in $1500 WSOP events so at least I made money from tourney poker this trip. I just met a girl I like and might eventually date so think I’m cooking it on tourney poker (live), to do things with her so I think it’s a win. I might just focus on smaller Venetian series with $400-800 buyins going forward if I do play. I love tourney poker but the variance can be so brutal. I’ve been very fortunate lately- had 2 tourny wins last year, FT a $1100 WSOP circuit event and basically had a flip for most of chips with 4 left- I feel I’m playing well but honestly think variance will smash me in the face sooner or later if I don’t get the run good so may take a break from mtt poker.

Really? I don't feel like we are ever folding J9s in BB here. what bluffs does he have on the river after x/r turn? These spots are always EXTREMELY annoying, but they literally always have it. Im folding as fast as possible and forgetting the hand happened.

I agree we can’t fold J9s pre here. I think a bomb pre might be good though- we pick up dead money a lot and when we run against say kk or AA- J9dd is the type of hand that can crack these hands at a small %.

As played, I think river is a cry exploit fold. We are never good honestly- guy looked like a nit and was middle aged: aka he never had bluffs there.

I would never fold j9dd here. We can flip a super monster draw or two pair and have a nice x raise spot. I feel j9dd is too good. J9o might be ok to fold bc we run into better Jx so often.