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Old 11-29-2007, 11:02 AM   #176
Mackerel
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
So what happened on the turn?
Sorry, got caught up with something....

Ok, so I decide to check the turn. I don't want to be check raised and I have a draw, so I'll gladly see a free card if I can. And I do! The LP guy sits there and thinks for honestly a good minute, which was pretty strange to me. But he then checked.

River is another ace. The board is now: 2-7-J-A-A with no possible flushes.

The SB checks. BB presumably was still feeling sick from the tea. He mucked his hand and ran towards the nearest bathroom. UTG then checks yet again! No real reads on either of them at this point other than what I mentioned on the flop post.

So now its up to me. The guy who I thought was the most feared player has just mucked. Two opponents have checked the river including the UTG preflop raiser who I'm completely stumped about right now. LP quickly checked the flop, which made me think he had nothing but then he took forever to check on the turn. Theres 2000 in the pot. I have absolutely nothing.

Do you bluff here? If so, how often? And how much?

In case you don't feel like going back, here was my analysis of LP:

"Guy in LP is probably one of the weaker players at the table- not because he is reckless, but because he is very predictable. I talked to him before the tourney and found out that he had won his way in through a sattlite and had never played at anywhere near these stakes. And it showed. He was pretty much playing straightforward ABC poker. Pretty much you could believe his bets for what they represented, and you could push him off a marginal hand easily."


Thoughts?
Alright guys, I'm bumping this for more replies. Yes I realize that I haven't been timely with my replies in this thread, and I apologize for that. I am sorry. Now can we please get over that and discuss the actual hand? I've gotten very few replies to this part of the problem and I think it is the most interesting part, and this has greatly frustrated me. If we can get a solid analysis of the play on the river, then I promise to post the full results a day or two after discussion dies down. So what do you do here? Do you bluff? Check and concede the hand? Mix up your play? Please include reasoning and analysis. Thanks.
I just stumbled on this thread, and haven't read all the previous discussions, but I'll put in my $0.02 on the river.

I think UTG most likely has a small pair like 44 (even the most trappy player is betting a big hand by now). One of the other two could easily have a 7 or a weak J that they were afraid to bet on the flop, and then got scared by the A turn. I think any of these hands will call a resonable river bet, so don't do it. Just check and move on to the next hand. FWIW, I think the way you played the hand to this point is fine.
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Old 11-29-2007, 02:59 PM   #177
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

[X] Thread delivers
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Old 11-29-2007, 03:01 PM   #178
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

Just for kicks,

If you really have a good read on the two first players and believe they both have nothing and that the LP is so predictable ( meaning he obv isnt checking a hand on the turn there and river didnt help) go ahead and bet half the pot, the money is completly dead
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:00 PM   #179
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

LP oviously has the only hand that might call, somehow you have to convince him that you have his pair of 6's beat.

Here's where your acting lessons pay off. You're only going to get any chips here by acting. Try to sell the idea that you were afraid your pair of 7s is no good, but you're going to bet them anyway, for value.


check your cards again, raise one eyebrow ever so slightly, count your chips a few times, look back at your cards, sigh heavily (carefull, though, you don't want to over-sell) then bet 10% of your stack.

Maybe stand up if he takes his time, but don't say word.

Regards

Gar

Hell of a post, btw. I laughed at least twice.
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:24 PM   #180
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

I opened this thread because it had the most replies on the front page, and thus I assumed it would have the most vigorous discussion.

I was wrong.

I am glad, though, to have discovered the magic of oat running.

w/r/t hand:

I'm not bluffing with 5 high into a pot where multiple tricky villains are involved. We had a plan, it didn't work, and we might be falling into a trap; we have lots of chips yet and we can find a better spot to chip up.
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:56 PM   #181
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

This post brings to light one of the big advantages of playing live v. internet. if someone pukes live you can easily exploit but on internet it is impossible to know who is puking/not puking etc.
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Old 11-29-2007, 06:29 PM   #182
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

To me you are only betting if you think you are facing a Jx 2x 7x or worse. 22 Ax JJ or 77 are not going away for anything. Any 2 pr is likely only going away if you push or overbet and they may call based on the action.....KK QQ may call..depending on their read(which may be as bad as yours) Have they seen you bluff???

How big it the pot?

Take a stab only if you want to show you play trash. I think you are called too high a % to make this worth a bet as a stand alone spot. To set a donk/lagtard image maybe?
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Old 11-30-2007, 06:14 AM   #183
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

[x] thread delivered a long time ago
[x] beating a dead horse and no longer funny
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Old 11-30-2007, 01:07 PM   #184
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

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Is this a joke? It's been two month since you started the post. We're on pace to hit the river in 2008.
i am only posting because i want to be a part of this historic thread. while DiamondAce was wrong, and we did hit the river before 2008, we only have one month left to complete the hand before 2008.
it took me 40min to read this whole thread. i don't know if it was time well spent, but the complainers sure got me to chuckle.
-t
"Harrington on Hold'em is all right, I guess." -- Annette Obrestad in CardPlayer Magazine
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Old 12-03-2007, 06:30 PM   #185
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

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Originally Posted by Merek007 View Post
Have they seen you bluff???

How big it the pot?


No I have not been caught on a bluff yet. I have been somewhat aggressive- nothing to the point that they'd label me as an agressive player though. I have made maybe a few bluffs that I never had to show. Also if it matters, I'm young(25 now/23 when the thread started and when the hand took place), and some people may think I'm more agressive just due to that.

I believe theres 2000 in the pot.
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Old 12-03-2007, 06:31 PM   #186
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

I'm so confused...what happened to this thread? Why are there only 21 replies now?
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Old 12-09-2007, 06:47 PM   #187
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

Ok, heres the second to last update.

I decided to just check. LP bets 1200, SB folds, BB folds. Your move. Obviously calling is out of the question, so its either raise or fold. Give me your thoughts and then I'll wrap up the hand.
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Old 12-14-2007, 06:43 AM   #188
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
Ok, heres the second to last update.

I decided to just check. LP bets 1200, SB folds, BB folds. Your move. Obviously calling is out of the question, so its either raise or fold. Give me your thoughts and then I'll wrap up the hand.
no thoughts?
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Old 12-26-2007, 11:19 AM   #189
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
Ok, heres the second to last update.

I decided to just check. LP bets 1200, SB folds, BB folds. Your move. Obviously calling is out of the question, so its either raise or fold. Give me your thoughts and then I'll wrap up the hand.
Obviously you need to randomize here. What I would do is take a look at the second hand of my Seiko watch. If it's 0-19, I call. If it's 20-39, I raise two-thirds of the pot, and if it's 40-59, I raise twice the pot. I think we can safely rule out going allin, since LP plays predictably enough that he would just call with the nuts here, so you're giving up pot equity. I think the 33% chance of calling is self-explanatory.

Folding would probably give away too much information, and they'll run you over every time you choose to smooth-call pre-flop.
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Old 12-26-2007, 11:21 AM   #190
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

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Originally Posted by zenfurni View Post
What I would do is take a look at the second hand of my Timex watch.
FYP
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Old 01-03-2008, 01:00 AM   #191
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

fold > find a decent sized bridge > jump
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Old 01-03-2008, 01:23 AM   #192
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

wtf did you get lost running hot oats...have you made supervisor yet
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Old 01-03-2008, 08:13 AM   #193
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

This thread is one big joke. Nonetheless I have to agree with Sklansky that playing 45s once in a while from EP is justified when the circumstances are right. Playing somewhat at random even against opponents which don't know you is good play, because the fact is, in general they won't expect a player to call a minraise with 45s in early position. That is sufficient for the purpose you have. I have to say though that a call after a minraise is less preferred IMHO then calling after an EP limper, because in case 1 it is clear that you have bad relative position after the flop most of the time (when he C-bets). In any case you could bluff on the flop and get a freecard on the turn if LP folds to hit that monsterdraw. I would never bet the turn, because you are drawing to the nuts, this is a concept from one of Sklansky's books which I like; be more inclined to semibluff when your draw isn't to the nuts then when it is.

On the river I would fold. The guy could easily have an ace and be afraid of other big aces out there, and so he didn't bet the turn. Second possibility is he has a jack, but if he has a bad kicker he might even check that one out, because what is he gonna be called with? He could be bluffing, weaker players do that once in a while, but I don't think the risk reward ratio here is very tempting. If you raised me and I had a J I would call... so you have to weigh the chances that he is bluffing or betting a J and can be pushed out of this pot. I would let it go.
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Old 01-03-2008, 09:04 AM   #194
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

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Originally Posted by DiamondAce View Post
Is this a joke? It's been two month since you started the post. We're on pace to hit the river in 2008.
*LOL* This wise and clairvoyant post was made in May, 2006!!

Fair enough, I just flew over the previous pages as I already enjoyed this thread a couple of months ago - and I would never dare to seriously give any advice at this stakes - but I´ll give my 2cents here anyway:

No way I would check-raise the river here. We have absolutely no clue what LP might have. Surely we might be able to kick him from a medium pair - but do we really want to invest 1/3rd of our stack just to find out if he has an Ace - which he did not play before because he was afraid of his weak kicker (e.g. AT)?

And if he just thought one single step further - what hand he should assign to you? You cold-called pf, checked every single street - including the river - with just one more opponent to come - and then make a check-raise? What kind of hand made sense for you here?!

Btw, at this time another chapter of Harrington comes to my mind - the "dark tunnel bluff" ...
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Old 01-03-2008, 09:41 AM   #195
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

*G*

PF Call is OK. At least we have position on main Villain and we either hit the Flop hard or we're watching the rest of the way.
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Old 01-03-2008, 09:48 AM   #196
Frank Zappy
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

Flop. I don't understand why the club is important if we have 2 diamonds?

Checked to us, we totally whiffed here so it's a check. No point in betting.

Oops. OK we hit one diamond. Still not enough to get involved. Check
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Old 01-03-2008, 09:57 AM   #197
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

Turn: I have to reread Mike Caro about what kind of tell throwing up means

Checked to us and same as the Flop, if we bet and get raised we may be the next ones throwing up.
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Old 01-03-2008, 10:38 AM   #198
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

The River. Hmmmm.

Barf and Muck does make it interesting. His cards are dead correct? We're 100% certain that this isn't some sinister ploy on his part with quad Aces, correct?

95+% that SB will fold to a bet so the only question is "what was EP up to with his play and will he fold and if so how big a bet will it take to get him out"? We cannot win a showdown but can we pick up the pot with a bet? Moreover, are we confident that EP will actually fold or will he call down in which case the only hand we beat is 34?

If UTG C/R us we're headed for the stall next to the first barfer.

All in all, there's enough dissonance in EP's play that we can't be sure that betting out here will get him to fold anything and from the description, he doesn't seem like a weak/tight folder.

Check.

I don't know why everyone complains about the pace of this thread, it only took me about 20 minutes to read through to the river.
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Old 01-03-2008, 10:51 AM   #199
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
Ok, heres the second to last update.

I decided to just check. LP bets 1200, SB folds, BB folds. Your move. Obviously calling is out of the question, so its either raise or fold. Give me your thoughts and then I'll wrap up the hand.
What? I thought BB is out throwing up?
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Old 04-20-2008, 12:25 PM   #200
JoeyJoJo Shabadu
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Re: Play though a hand with me here....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
Ok, heres the second to last update.

I decided to just check. LP bets 1200, SB folds, BB folds. Your move. Obviously calling is out of the question, so its either raise or fold. Give me your thoughts and then I'll wrap up the hand.

Obviously you have to raise here to have a shot at this pot.
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