Outcome: Villain shows QsKc
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpgiro
Flop is almost a pure range bet, betting the nuts for like 30% feels weird, but you also have stuff like Q9hh that would love to fold a random K or even A-high hand if your opponents don't defend well enough. You don't realize need to worry about protecting your checking range because on this board, you just don't have one.
If you check flop, you really want to bet bigger on the turn especially after BB checks again. This range will very often have a lot of marginal one-pair hands that we want to get as much money from as possible, especially as this board is a little more coordinated now. GTO will probably want you to be something like half, but I think 66-75% pot is pretty nice in that if your opponent has anything decent, like a Q or J, they're never going to fold to that bet. If they have backdoor clubs or even KT or T9, they're probably not going to fold. And even stuff like 88 or 99 is probably going to lookup at least one bet.
On the river, leading is really not a thing from a theory perspective. So I think this range is pretty much rivered clubs, a weird bluff or a marginal value hand not wanting to face a bigger bet. So this just becomes a question of whether we want to raise or not.
Because the BB can arrive here with backdoor flushes and the 2 isn't a card that completes a lot of other stuff for the BB unless it's exactly a hand like J2 or Q2, I tend to lean call because if we raise, it's unclear how many worse hands call. In a lot of ways, the BB has done our job for us because our likely bet size was going to be pot anyway, so taking the 11BB and not having to face a check-raise pile seems pretty good to me.
I ran this spot through a solver and I agree with this for the most part. JJ is a hand that is allowed to check back about 7% of the time but yeah, this board will get bet with 95% frequency from IP. It also sized up the turn, most frequently betting with 2/3 pot but still overbetting about 20% of the time. I could have extracted more value since I only bet 1/2 pot (which the solver will still do about 5% of the time), but playing against a human I feel like if he's calling 1/2 pot he's probably calling 2/3 pot on this board.