Played one of globalpokers qualifiers today, had a spot where I wasn't really sure about. I read GTO Wizard's article about incorporating ICM into decision-making further away from the bubble. My play today feels really nitty but I also actually don't abhor it.

UTG+1 w/ 12bb RFI 2bb
HJ w/ 17bb stack 3! 8bb
Hero in CO, 21bb stack with AQo
Biggest stack at the table directly to hero's left with 35bb

414 players paid, 575ish remain. What do you do?

Maybe I'm nitty but I think fold is fine. HJ's raise is committing, and it's vs. a short stack raising from EP instead of shoving all-in, which should be polarized to monsters and a couple of bluffs. I don't think you're going to find they both have AJ- very often here. It's not impossible, but I think you'd basically be hoping that you're getting the bad side of a flip vs. HJ's 88-JJ and also that UTG has a raise/fold hand. Or maybe if you're really optimistic that HJ has AJs and EP is raise/folding. Given how tight the ranges should be here that seems like a very thin needle to thread, absent any reads that one or both players overplay marginal hands preflop.

Pretty clear fold. When someone is jamming 8bb off of 17bb, that range is rarely going to be balanced to the point that AQ is good. That's almost always going to be a hand that's willing to call off and your best case is that stuff like AT or 99 fits in that range, which it almost never will.

I ended up just folding here, HJ takes it down preflop with the 3bet. In the moment I was thinking that AQo might be okay to 4bet jam but with a bigger stack was yet to act and I figure it's lower variance to just fold and let UTG and HJ stack off, maybe BTN gets involved too. Didn't want to put myself at risk being reasonably close to the bubble.

Fold here. I'm not even happy about AK in this spot. But I guess folding AK is a bit too nitty.

Assuming this is a satellite I fold 100% of the time. 20bb is a decent stack that leaves you with plenty of options. Calling it off for your entire stack (which is effectively what you would be doing) seems pretty bad. If you call and lose, you're basically dead. Both UTG's and HJ's range should be fairly strong in theory and might not even include some of the hands we hope to be flipping against (eg, stuff like 88-JJ probably just open jams or rejams). I would only choose HJ's line with AA and jam basically every other hand I elect to play.

Then again, my points about ranges might be moot if this is a freeroll and people just show up with all sorts of random hands lol.

I like the fold...shoving would be marginal at best and an ICM punt in this spot. Marginal spots in low/midstakes = fold. The average player at these limits make so many mistakes overall, you dont need to gamble and hope for the best here. Higher equity spots will come. Protect your stack.

Hero folding > Hero calling

Well Played!