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(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? (online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible?

04-15-2023 , 09:35 PM
deep run top 100 in a 2171-person field, 6max with 0.1 ante, no villain reads, already in the money
top 50 qualifies for another tournament in addition to paying money

Hero with 35bb, opens KcKh 2bb
Folds to Villain with 40bb, calls from BB
flop is Qd5s3c
Villain check, hero bets 1bb, Villain call
turn is Jd
Villain check, hero bets 5bb (71% pot), Villain jams (he covers me but barely)
Hero?
Spoiler:
calls

Solver says this is a call 100% of the time, unblocking diamonds too. Is there ever a world we can exploitatively fold this turn jam? Maybe even just for ICM considerations?

Outcome posted later but should be obvious

Last edited by oldsilver; 04-16-2023 at 07:27 AM.
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-16-2023 , 08:39 AM
It's unclear if the tournament is structured such that the majority of the prizepool is a seat to another tournament or if that seat is a small part of the prizepool (or somewhere in between). Does the tournament end when 50 players are left, or is there still an escalating prizepool?

The average stack and your relative position in the field will also be useful information.

In a standard MTT this a fistpump call. In a standard satellite this is dependent on the probability of cashing if you call vs the probability of cashing if you fold (among other factors). In this hybrid format, it's hard to answer without the above information.
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-16-2023 , 07:53 PM
When you contemplate the gigantic chasm between the Jd and the 5s you realize just how strong even your Jx are. Turn barrel is good sizing for as wide as a jack and honestly KK in particular should very rarely get here in the first place. Flop KK have the best unblocking effects and turn KK are of course still KK and uber strong so Cbet(small) and barrel (Moderately large) is something of an underrep of KK.

So never folding; he can have worse for fat value. KK should be printing like nobody's business.

I suppose we'll see too much QJ here (not enough flop xr) and too much sets (which play better as a small turn xr given they really do need minimal protection) but at the same time people might not trap flop with sets often enough. I think we'll see people folding Qx OTT. So I think we'll see requisie flush draws in there--more than enough to justify calling it off with KK
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-17-2023 , 02:31 AM
Outcome: villain turned 2 pair (J5s) and won the hand on a clean river

Quote:
Originally Posted by Asjbaaaf
It's unclear if the tournament is structured such that the majority of the prizepool is a seat to another tournament or if that seat is a small part of the prizepool (or somewhere in between). Does the tournament end when 50 players are left, or is there still an escalating prizepool?

The average stack and your relative position in the field will also be useful information.

In a standard MTT this a fistpump call. In a standard satellite this is dependent on the probability of cashing if you call vs the probability of cashing if you fold (among other factors). In this hybrid format, it's hard to answer without the above information.
It is not a satellite, but making top 50 qualifies for a good tournament. It's a normal tournament as far as payout, just an added bonus for making top 50. I know that the solver calls 100% of the time on this board, especially with second diamond coming in and there's no diamond in hand, so I don't feel bad about making a technical mistake, just wondering if there's an exploitative fold possible since I know one of my weaknesses is exploitative play.


Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin
When you contemplate the gigantic chasm between the Jd and the 5s you realize just how strong even your Jx are. Turn barrel is good sizing for as wide as a jack and honestly KK in particular should very rarely get here in the first place. Flop KK have the best unblocking effects and turn KK are of course still KK and uber strong so Cbet(small) and barrel (Moderately large) is something of an underrep of KK.
I simplified the IP c-betting sizing to make it easier to execute to default to 1bb since 1bb and 1.8bb are the sizings for 75% of my range. For KK specifically, it mostly bets 4/5 pot or 1/3 pot 66%, betting 1bb 7% of the time. So I'm not super concerned about the low flop sizing as it was a result of strategy simplification, but should I exploitatively do something different? As mentioned above, it's one of the areas I'm working on the most.
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-17-2023 , 03:19 AM
Alright, I understand the tournament format now. Thanks.

ICM will treat the ticket as a larger pay jump at the 51st bust out which will be relatively insignificant to your decisions at this stage. Gotta call this one, nh ul. You could take a hand like AdQx or KdQx to exploitatively fold since you block a lot more of the bluffs and are drawing dead vs sets (while KK has 2 outs). I'm guessing solver does go with those combos still when it bets.
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-17-2023 , 05:04 AM
Thanks for weighing on my posts, trying to add more exploitative play to my arsenal, seems like that's where I get into the most trouble usually
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-17-2023 , 05:43 AM
I think minbetting is way too small on flop. There is a significant difference between a min-bet and 1/3 pot bet-- .8BB might not sound like a lot, but one is nearly twice as much as the other, and the bets you make on the flop compound exponentially on future streets. I think you could consider betting bigger on this flop than 1/3, too, as you do unblock top pair and this is a hand you want to build a pot with. (What position did you open from?)

Don't see getting away on this turn, unfortunately.
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-17-2023 , 01:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
I think minbetting is way too small on flop. There is a significant difference between a min-bet and 1/3 pot bet-- .8BB might not sound like a lot, but one is nearly twice as much as the other, and the bets you make on the flop compound exponentially on future streets. I think you could consider betting bigger on this flop than 1/3, too, as you do unblock top pair and this is a hand you want to build a pot with. (What position did you open from?)

Don't see getting away on this turn, unfortunately.
I opened from UTG (6max). KK is supposed to bet bigger there most of the time as I noted in an earlier post, but the reason i didn't was because i simplified my entire range's strategy to just betting 1bb as IP vs BB defense, since that's far easier to remember instead of trying to memorize specific hands for this one scenario
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-17-2023 , 02:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asjbaaaf
It's unclear if the tournament is structured such that the majority of the prizepool is a seat to another tournament or if that seat is a small part of the prizepool (or somewhere in between). Does the tournament end when 50 players are left, or is there still an escalating prizepool?

The average stack and your relative position in the field will also be useful information.

In a standard MTT this a fistpump call. In a standard satellite this is dependent on the probability of cashing if you call vs the probability of cashing if you fold (among other factors). In this hybrid format, it's hard to answer without the above information.
Its kinda complicated but basically its a $250k giveaway freeroll and there is a series of daily $11 qualifiers that are standard MTT freezeouts but also have a bonus satty element.

The Final is a 54 man where 1st gets $100k and 10th-54th get $1k. Winning each qualifier gets you a seat in the final. FT gets you a seat in Semifinals. Top 50 gets you a seat in Quarterfinals. Top 90 from Quarters make the Semis. Top 36 from Semis make the Finals.


Not sure how to quantify it exactly but I would guess that making Top 50 is worth at least $40-50, depending on how well you play satty/survival structures.
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-17-2023 , 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestfish
I opened from UTG (6max). KK is supposed to bet bigger there most of the time as I noted in an earlier post, but the reason i didn't was because i simplified my entire range's strategy to just betting 1bb as IP vs BB defense, since that's far easier to remember instead of trying to memorize specific hands for this one scenario
I think 1/3 pot is a better default than the minbet, for the record. Heavy ICM spots like final tables aside, I really only go down to minbets on paired, trips, or monotone boards.

And while most of my c-bets are 1/3 pot, I'll size up on certain boards or in certain scenarios. A spot like this, where you might cooler a top-pair hand with your overpair, is a good reason to size up IMO.
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-17-2023 , 11:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
I think 1/3 pot is a better default than the minbet, for the record. Heavy ICM spots like final tables aside, I really only go down to minbets on paired, trips, or monotone boards.

And while most of my c-bets are 1/3 pot, I'll size up on certain boards or in certain scenarios. A spot like this, where you might cooler a top-pair hand with your overpair, is a good reason to size up IMO.
I'll try 1/3 pot for my default c-bet IP vs BB spots, thanks. I've since learned that overpairs can size up, with AA not needing to size up at all because its.. aces lol. Any tips to balance this? Should I care about being balanced with my size-ups holding overpairs?
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
04-18-2023 , 03:37 AM
In terms of balance, if your opponents aren't that observant it doesn't matter too much, but in theory you could size up with your best bluffs as well. There aren't likely to be many here, though, given the layout of the board-- maybe A4s/A2s with a backdoor flush draw. Maybe something like KdJd or JdTd with three to the straight flush and blocking the best Qx hands.

(I wouldn't even be firm about sizing up with an overpair here, but after reading this thread I think it's a solid idea. In general, how much you want to size up with your overpairs or other pocket pairs, or how consistently you bet them, depends on whether they need protection. So on like a T62 board you're betting more often and betting bigger more often with JJ than AA, I think.)

That's all off the top of my head, so don't take it as gospel, but I think that's at least mostly theoretically correct.
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote
05-12-2023 , 08:31 PM
theory based its a slam dunk call,when isaw the post i could just think so many bluff combinations, thing is i dont think i ever saw in practice anyone going nuts like that without 2 pair or better or a super draw (like a straight and flushdraw) on the turn like ever,and this year only i played 2k tournaments (if u were 25bb eff on the start and not 35bb he should some draws) but x/r shove on turn for 25bb more is never a bluff ( or not enough times a bluff) in my book to call with risk prem, now thats super exploitive and a big mistake in theory but when we say theory we assume Villan plays optimally which ...well never happens
(online) KK vs turn jam, exploitative fold possible? Quote

      
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