***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***
07-22-2010
, 03:30 AM
07-22-2010
, 09:41 PM
07-24-2010
, 02:15 AM
07-26-2010
, 01:21 AM
does bbs won in sng luck correlate to any kind of edge or show that you are a winning player? I have played around 2k super turbo sngs and my graph for bb's wonlooks like this
but in reality i'm actually down like -1% roi through this stretch basically I'm wondering if I should just not bother looking at tourney luck's graph. I heard also that HeM red line isn't very accurate either for super turbos.
but in reality i'm actually down like -1% roi through this stretch basically I'm wondering if I should just not bother looking at tourney luck's graph. I heard also that HeM red line isn't very accurate either for super turbos.
Last edited by litlebullet; 07-26-2010 at 01:22 AM.
Reason: I chopped the bottom too much but it is around 2k games played. 7314 allin hands showing if that helps
08-07-2010
, 07:46 PM
X-post from the HEM official thread. Has this been discussed? Any help?
What is the difference between the "Luck" column in the ICM analysis window and the value that shows up in the $EV Diff column? I would have thought these would be the same, but they aren't. For example, in this hand the ICM analysis says $47.17 (which is correct), but the $EV Diff says $47.21. Every hand seems to be at least a little off, and some by a lot.
What is the difference between the "Luck" column in the ICM analysis window and the value that shows up in the $EV Diff column? I would have thought these would be the same, but they aren't. For example, in this hand the ICM analysis says $47.17 (which is correct), but the $EV Diff says $47.21. Every hand seems to be at least a little off, and some by a lot.
08-07-2010
, 08:32 PM
08-07-2010
, 08:49 PM
08-07-2010
, 10:51 PM
08-14-2010
, 10:05 PM
Quote:
Ok, so i have been reading like 20 pages now...
This is what i have been understanding about it, correct me if im wrong its late here
Red line:
You get it in good, it goes up, if not it goes down, outcome of the hand is not relevant?
Not quite correct. There are situational factors at play that have a massive effect on the direction of the red line. Let's say it's 4-handed (bubble) and you have 500 chips in the BB, the SB has 2,198 chips, and both utg and button have 1 chip a piece. In a situation where it is folded to the chip leader in the SB and he shows you his hand, T5o, and goes all-in, you would be correct to fold a LOT of hands. Folding AK would be a no-brainer in this spot even though you are ahead by a lot. If you call, your red line is going to go WAY down even though you got it as a big favorite. The reason for this is that your equity is maximized by allowing one of the 1-chip players to bust rather than putting all your chips at risk where you will lose a significant percentage of the time.
Does not count all in steals that dont get called?
Steals that don't get called are non analyzable because the luck is not quantifiable. Therefore, your $ev will increase by the same amount that your tournament equity increases. The same holds true for times when your opponent steals from you.
Green line:
Just how much money u made, regardless of how u did it.
So here is what im thinking by super large samples of play:
If your green line is above the red, it means you steal and use ur bigstack a lot, push in +ev spots and get called by top range when ur crushed, but it dont matter.
This is why the green profit is higher compared to your red all in EV, you make them fold more and take it down anyhow. But when called its by top range and ur crushed, so red goes down even when green goes up here.
But ofc you will have all the normal hands aswell, so your red is still going up.
If your red line is above the green, you play a tighter and more passive game, maybe pass on some +ev spots to get it in better. When all in its usually for ur entire stack so losing hurts ur profit more. This means that your red may go up, but your profit wont since you play too passive and blind down without stealing/passing +ev spots. So maybe you "run bad" if you show the red / green line but in reality its only how you play poker and not how you run.
So what im thinking is that tighter players have a higher expected red win, but are always running below it since they fail to steal/gameflow/etc.
People stealing and making +ev moves and reading gameflow good, are going to have a lower red line than the tight players, but always profit more than their red line if they run neutral or better. (red wont be that much below tho, since you will still be all in with good hands and setups etc. There is just a diffrence on how you use ur stack.)
This is going to be long and confusing...I apologize.
Overly tight play will result in reduced fold equity as one's chip stack shrinks in comparison to the blinds. The tight player will be forced to commit their chips in spots where someone with a larger stack would not have to. These spots include wide shoves despite reduced fold equity, which means the tight player will still be forced to get it in bad a decent % of the time.
Even ignoring the above paragraph, there are other factors at play which serve to poke holes in your theory. Bubble play often has the most drastic effect on the red line of any STT scenario. As a short stack (passive or aggressive) it is extremely difficult to make one's red line go up, and it would take a ton of luck (read: higher green line than red), to make any money at all.
If you look through your HEM database, my guess is that the worst tournaments in terms of $EV won are those in which you got all your chips in as an underdog near the bubble, won the hand, and still bubbled the sng. This does horrible things to your red line, but it doesn't have THAT much to do with getting it in as a slight favorite versus a slight underdog.
Had you gotten your money in as a slight favorite and won the hand, your red line wouldn't be much different than if you got it in as a slight dog and won. If you had won the hand as the short stack (regardless of whether you were a favorite or a dog) and finished ITM in the sng, your red line would still be very low and your green line very high. Conversely, had you been the chip leader in the same scenario versus the short stack, your red line will rarely be dragged drastically downward, but losing as a favorite will make it go way way up because had you won the hand, the bubble would have burst and you'd be guaranteed profit.
Since aggressive players more often have a large stack, they face these scenarios quite frequently. This often causes their red line to be higher than their green line. For those times in which the chip leader gets their money in as an underdog and wins the hand, his red line will not go down nearly as much because he won't be committing all his chips.
Having to commit all your chips on the bubble and winning will make your green line go MUCH higher than your red line (regardless of whether you're ahead or behind), while committing all your chips and losing will not make your red line much higher than your green line (especially if you stand no chance of crippling your opponent on the hand in question).
For these reasons (and probably others that I have not thought of), there is no real merit in the conclusion that tight players will consistently have higher red lines than green or aggressive players will have higher green lines than red
This is what i have been understanding about it, correct me if im wrong its late here
Red line:
You get it in good, it goes up, if not it goes down, outcome of the hand is not relevant?
Not quite correct. There are situational factors at play that have a massive effect on the direction of the red line. Let's say it's 4-handed (bubble) and you have 500 chips in the BB, the SB has 2,198 chips, and both utg and button have 1 chip a piece. In a situation where it is folded to the chip leader in the SB and he shows you his hand, T5o, and goes all-in, you would be correct to fold a LOT of hands. Folding AK would be a no-brainer in this spot even though you are ahead by a lot. If you call, your red line is going to go WAY down even though you got it as a big favorite. The reason for this is that your equity is maximized by allowing one of the 1-chip players to bust rather than putting all your chips at risk where you will lose a significant percentage of the time.
Does not count all in steals that dont get called?
Steals that don't get called are non analyzable because the luck is not quantifiable. Therefore, your $ev will increase by the same amount that your tournament equity increases. The same holds true for times when your opponent steals from you.
Green line:
Just how much money u made, regardless of how u did it.
So here is what im thinking by super large samples of play:
If your green line is above the red, it means you steal and use ur bigstack a lot, push in +ev spots and get called by top range when ur crushed, but it dont matter.
This is why the green profit is higher compared to your red all in EV, you make them fold more and take it down anyhow. But when called its by top range and ur crushed, so red goes down even when green goes up here.
But ofc you will have all the normal hands aswell, so your red is still going up.
If your red line is above the green, you play a tighter and more passive game, maybe pass on some +ev spots to get it in better. When all in its usually for ur entire stack so losing hurts ur profit more. This means that your red may go up, but your profit wont since you play too passive and blind down without stealing/passing +ev spots. So maybe you "run bad" if you show the red / green line but in reality its only how you play poker and not how you run.
So what im thinking is that tighter players have a higher expected red win, but are always running below it since they fail to steal/gameflow/etc.
People stealing and making +ev moves and reading gameflow good, are going to have a lower red line than the tight players, but always profit more than their red line if they run neutral or better. (red wont be that much below tho, since you will still be all in with good hands and setups etc. There is just a diffrence on how you use ur stack.)
This is going to be long and confusing...I apologize.
Overly tight play will result in reduced fold equity as one's chip stack shrinks in comparison to the blinds. The tight player will be forced to commit their chips in spots where someone with a larger stack would not have to. These spots include wide shoves despite reduced fold equity, which means the tight player will still be forced to get it in bad a decent % of the time.
Even ignoring the above paragraph, there are other factors at play which serve to poke holes in your theory. Bubble play often has the most drastic effect on the red line of any STT scenario. As a short stack (passive or aggressive) it is extremely difficult to make one's red line go up, and it would take a ton of luck (read: higher green line than red), to make any money at all.
If you look through your HEM database, my guess is that the worst tournaments in terms of $EV won are those in which you got all your chips in as an underdog near the bubble, won the hand, and still bubbled the sng. This does horrible things to your red line, but it doesn't have THAT much to do with getting it in as a slight favorite versus a slight underdog.
Had you gotten your money in as a slight favorite and won the hand, your red line wouldn't be much different than if you got it in as a slight dog and won. If you had won the hand as the short stack (regardless of whether you were a favorite or a dog) and finished ITM in the sng, your red line would still be very low and your green line very high. Conversely, had you been the chip leader in the same scenario versus the short stack, your red line will rarely be dragged drastically downward, but losing as a favorite will make it go way way up because had you won the hand, the bubble would have burst and you'd be guaranteed profit.
Since aggressive players more often have a large stack, they face these scenarios quite frequently. This often causes their red line to be higher than their green line. For those times in which the chip leader gets their money in as an underdog and wins the hand, his red line will not go down nearly as much because he won't be committing all his chips.
Having to commit all your chips on the bubble and winning will make your green line go MUCH higher than your red line (regardless of whether you're ahead or behind), while committing all your chips and losing will not make your red line much higher than your green line (especially if you stand no chance of crippling your opponent on the hand in question).
For these reasons (and probably others that I have not thought of), there is no real merit in the conclusion that tight players will consistently have higher red lines than green or aggressive players will have higher green lines than red
08-20-2010
, 06:20 AM
hey been reading a bit of the talk of the hyper turbos but still cant really get a clear idea of whether to use the EV line to keep myself sane or not.
heres 3.3k games which i know is a pretty small sample for the 88 HTs but meh.
Can i assume im beating the games ? EV ROI is 2.3%. i was hoping for 1 - 1.5% for these games but not sure how much the red line can ease my mind.
in general how are the other regs doing at the 88s? is it standard to run below EV at them?
thanks for any input anyway.
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heres 3.3k games which i know is a pretty small sample for the 88 HTs but meh.
Can i assume im beating the games ? EV ROI is 2.3%. i was hoping for 1 - 1.5% for these games but not sure how much the red line can ease my mind.
in general how are the other regs doing at the 88s? is it standard to run below EV at them?
thanks for any input anyway.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
08-20-2010
, 06:44 AM
Quote:
hey been reading a bit of the talk of the hyper turbos but still cant really get a clear idea of whether to use the EV line to keep myself sane or not.
heres 3.3k games which i know is a pretty small sample for the 88 HTs but meh.
Can i assume im beating the games ? EV ROI is 2.3%. i was hoping for 1 - 1.5% for these games but not sure how much the red line can ease my mind.
in general how are the other regs doing at the 88s? is it standard to run below EV at them?
thanks for any input anyway.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
heres 3.3k games which i know is a pretty small sample for the 88 HTs but meh.
Can i assume im beating the games ? EV ROI is 2.3%. i was hoping for 1 - 1.5% for these games but not sure how much the red line can ease my mind.
in general how are the other regs doing at the 88s? is it standard to run below EV at them?
thanks for any input anyway.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
08-20-2010
, 06:59 PM
08-20-2010
, 07:18 PM
Quote:
hey been reading a bit of the talk of the hyper turbos but still cant really get a clear idea of whether to use the EV line to keep myself sane or not.
heres 3.3k games which i know is a pretty small sample for the 88 HTs but meh.
Can i assume im beating the games ? EV ROI is 2.3%. i was hoping for 1 - 1.5% for these games but not sure how much the red line can ease my mind.
in general how are the other regs doing at the 88s? is it standard to run below EV at them?
thanks for any input anyway.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
heres 3.3k games which i know is a pretty small sample for the 88 HTs but meh.
Can i assume im beating the games ? EV ROI is 2.3%. i was hoping for 1 - 1.5% for these games but not sure how much the red line can ease my mind.
in general how are the other regs doing at the 88s? is it standard to run below EV at them?
thanks for any input anyway.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Have u checked the ICM calcs to see that they have the correct payout structure? Beacuse for a long time HEM was doing the calcs based on a regular 6 max structure. Only in recent builds has this problem been fixed. Also check to see if you are having the same problem as Sly. He mentioned it a few posts ago about the "luck" being different to the $EV diff.
Even if there is no technical problem with HEM u can find i think ur results are pretty standard for hyper turbos and ur on the right track to beating them.
08-21-2010
, 12:44 AM