Some background. We are playing the $300 / $100k guarantee with multiple buy-ins on the last day (only day I could schedule). There is actually another afternoon leg that just started, but I'm too tired to play that one after the deep run here. We built a good stack mid-game, but have been brutally card dead as we have gotten close to the bubble and moved to a table with very big stacks. (Never had a pocket pair over TT the whole tournament). Anyway, V in the hand is younger latino guy who was shortest at the table and has built back up to about my stack around 15 bbs. There is a bb ante. We had 217 players, playing down to 22 for day 2. All players making day 2 get paid. 30 players left.

OTTH

V opens from middle position to 3 bbs (which is a large open for the table and for V). Folds around to me and I see AJo. What's my move?

What seat are you in? What are the other stacks that villain has opened in to?

Sorry, I'm on BB. V opened after the two huge stacks had folded (both to my left). The remaining stacks after V opened had both of us covered, but weren't too big, around 20-25bbs.

I guess I lean fold given MP + 3x sizing + ICM. I like jamming when it's the CO or BTN that raises 3x like this but not MP or EP. It's possible we have a little fold equity if he has like 33-55 but maybe not. Is he really opening AT to 3x given your stack and the other shortish stacks? I kinda don't think so.

Tbh I prob just muck my cards and internally thank the villain for not making me jam AJ in a marginal spot.

Curious if people think there is any merit to the stop and go here. I think it might be terrible. If we call, we still have like 12bbs and the pot is like 7.5. But he might just call a donk jam with his entire opening range here, given how narrow it likely is. Perhaps that means we can exploitatively jam any Jack on the flop but even then the price is not good.

Ugh. I don't think 30 left with 22 paid is close enough to the money to start playing ICM-heavy tight, unless there are a bunch of 5BB stacks or so. (A rule of thumb I've heard is that the ICM effects of the bubble really kick up when you're about 15% of the remaining field away from the money-- which would be around 25-26 in this case. Not sure how accurate that is, but I think more than 25% of the field away from the money is too far away to worry about it.)

That said, I don't mind folding if you want to avoid a tough spot and save your chips for a situation with more clarity.

I tend to think this is a medium pair most often-- I see the larger sizing live most often with JJ, but you block that. Have you seen how he plays QQ+ yet? If I knew he wasn't doing this with that then I'm more inclined to call. But if I don't know that, I might be wondering why he didn't just jam if he had AQ+ or TT-88.

All that said, I probably just call and get it in on J-high flops or call down on A-high flops and hope I'm not dominated. (Unless you're certain he'd never bet flop / jam turn on an A-high board with worse than AJ, then you could call one and fold turn if that happens. I guess.) You're paying 2BB to play for 5.5 (plus a possible c-bet) and you're 30% to flop a pair, so the odds are in your favor with those assumptions.

If I'm seriously worried about being dominated, though, then I think folding is fine.

Understand the sunk cost factor here but calling 2 BBs into a pot that will be 7.5 and we close the action seems like the best choice. I'll likely fold to a lot of V c-bets if we completely miss, but K-Q-T also happens.

With the bb ante, I will have 11 bbs left after the call -- I think that makes some difference vs. 12 bbs.

Given the situation I fold more often than I jam and I would jam more than I would call. Because villain has opened smaller all other times I would guess he has JJ/TT a lot some QQ and some AK. Even if he did it with AQ it would be bad for us. He could also have AA trying to build the pot.

If he always opened big I would probably jam.

I prefer to have 14 bb's moving forward when jamming than 11 bb's and I don't really like calling here because we can't continue if we miss (and we will miss most of the time), we may be up against AK so an A on the flop is no guarantee of a win, if we are up against TT and a J hits the flop we won't double up anyway, etc.