MGM National Harbor is running a $500k GTD Mystery Bounty tournament with a $400 buy-in starting next week. Bounties range from $50 up to $25k.

There's multiple day ones and the bounties are only winnable starting on Day 2. Usually in bounty tournaments & PKOs pre-registering for the tournament is optimal but in this case late registration seems like a decent idea.

This is the first big tournament this casino has had in years so it's likely to get a big turnout. Is it worth jumping in to the tournament late on day one or just starting at the beginning?


https://mgmnationalharbor.mgmresorts...oker-open.html

I aways start on time. The worst players are all there. When you start late most of the bad players have already been eliminated.

In a bounty tournament when you start late there will be a lot of people with bigger stacks than you and most of them will be good. If you are competing to win a small stack's bounty you might be at risk vs the other big stacks still there.

The counter to this is that entering a tourney late increases your hourly win rate. That doesn't matter to me as much as going deep...

In a live tournament, playing from the start is a huge advantage especially if you’re conscious and understanding your exact table and opponents.

On an online KO tourney, I see winning regs late reg/reenter with 15bb all the time so I think it’s less -EV online.

Yea- ^ agree.

Live- I show up on time.

Online- it depends, but I'm pretty comfortable buying in late with 10-20bb, especially turbo events simply because a lot play poorly with a short medium stack. And that's my strong suit. The average stack is rarely more than 2x and there are so many short stacks to put pressure on and they tend to play very fit or fold defensive.

An important detail here is that the mystery bounties don't start until day 2 so it's not as crucial that you show up on time. Online I always try to show up to PKOs on time because there's so much equity tied up in the bounties and they start immediately. (Also, I suspect that PKOs tend to attract the players who really like to gamble it up, so getting a chance to get their chips early is advantageous.)

I definitely think there's an advantage to showing up on time if you feel like you have a strong skill advantage (although I also think there's a lot of merit to the equity gained by joining after so many people have busted), and you want to try to build a stack to get you a chance to build a bounty, but I also don't think it's as important in this format as it would be if the bounties started immediately. Since the bounties don't start paying out until day 2, getting there is more important, so it should play like a more standard tournament on day 1.

Mystery bounty, are totally different than normal KO tourneys.

I'm playing them on Winamax so I made the math.
If I get the MGM rules right, 30% of the prize pool goes in the bonus prizes. This is the same as Winamax.
It starts day 2, and day 1 finishes when 90% of the players have busted. This is quite late, the Mystery phase usually starts ITM, so final 15%

Starting chips will be 25 000, so average is 250 000 when the day 2 starts.
The average prize will be 1BI x30% x10 .
So basically a bounty is worth 3 buy-ins.
So if you want to go all-in against someone you cover, you can consider there is 75 000 chips dead money, which is worth taking into account.
If Villain is short (let's say 75 000 chips himself), you need 33% equity.
Gambling Time

BUT
If the biggest prizes are drawn quickly, then the average bounty can go down to 1 BI or so.
So let's say the average is now 300 000, the 1-BI dead money (= 25 000 chips) is not that big anymore, it may be 2 or 3 BBs at this stage.

So you should plan not to be too weak day1, in order to start day2 with a healthy stack.
Being on time is important, not as much as PKOs, but still it would be a mistake to late reg and not be at the table when all the fishes are.
Then Day 2, you want to gamble for bounties (or for the 75 000 dead chips if you prefer).
And STOP gambling if the big prizes are drawn (many players will keep on gambling, you can take advantage of that).

PS : I personnally prefer standard KO MTTs over Mystery KOs

In both cases you benefit from the fact that it attracts bad players, and that few players make the effort of converting the bounties in chips.
But there is more variance in Mystery MTT, because of those random payouts.

For a Mystery bounty you want to start on time and build a stack. The bounty value comes from a having a nice Day 2 stack and having people covered to go after bountys. The EV from a bounty is high until the Jackpot Bounty is pulled.


For a online PKO, it doesnt really matter. Bounties get large as you go deep so there is still value to late reg if you are comfortable on the short stack.

For normal, flat bounty tourney, you want to start on time since the bounty prize pool gets paid out quicker and you want to be around to knock some people out.

How does a mystery bounty work in live tournaments? Meaning, how it is revealed how much you get for the knockout?

I guess the players don't know what $ is on their head.

At least in the one I played, when you bust someone you basically draw from a hopper like a raffle and you get whatever bounty you pull.

Seems obvious but you cannot win a bounty in Day 2 if you're the smallest stack at the table. Start on time and play well (but run better!)

There is ICM pre bounty stage.
Let’s say you late reg and bounties are still not in play but they are coming up.
In this phase in theory the big stacks don’t wanna gamble and double up the short stacks + loosing their big stack opportunities for the bounty stage.
Therefore shorter stacks have the incentive to play more loose and aggressive, generating EV from redline plays.
In reality I think the a avarage player will not be realising this so basically they will hurt them selfs more often (like people were not adjusting appropriately to final table icm in the past) which will take out your shortstack EV advantage.

Than you will remain only with the benefits of being closer to the bounty stage and not busting earlier.