Quote:
Originally Posted by freemail88
Thanks. What's your reasoning for the open jam?
When the ICM is heavy, everyone with decent stacks is disincentivized from flipping; a jam can fold out mid-pair type hands that could 3-bet jam over you and force you to fold. (If you're really lucky, you might get an AKo fold from someone who thinks you'd never do this without a pair, but I wouldn't bank on it.)
I think UTG/7 is too early to do it with, though. Too many people to get through, and thus too high of a chance of running into a premium hand. (It's still not super high in the aggregate, but with your lead over the shorter stacks and 7 people to get through, I still think it's too risky.)
As played, I'd just fold-- we have 0 fold equity at this depth. As I calculated it, assuming BB ante, SB would be calling 12BB to play for 32BB-- 2.66:1, 27.27% equity needed by cEV, and as a healthily covering stack villain doesn't face much ICM pressure against you. Villain can't really fold anything they 3-bet with, and there's no reason yet to assume he's 3-betting light enough for that to be good for you. Plus, there's always the very slim chance MP was trapping. It's not fun to raise/fold this, but as the hand played out, I think it's okay.
