Quote:
Originally Posted by ralphykid67
Her check jam doesn’t make much sense imo. Still I don’t see why she wouldn’t check KK and AA. Paired boards with two low cards like this are ideal for checking those hands.
I might find a call depending on my reads of player and body language/timing but something reeks here. If she’s a good and aggro player post flop (not just pre) I would also be more inclined to call.
The thing I hadn't mentioned was that Villain had just lost like 12,000 chips a few hands earlier on a bad beat suckout. My red was that she was furious. Still I thought her oversized pre-flop raise was because she was mad and had a very good hand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
Your flop bet seems large to me on this board. A smaller bet is fine and will make it difficult for her to check/shove. (That said, I certainly don't think putting in 1/3 of your stack on a check-raise means you're obligated to shove the rest, so her decision is odd.)
I also might check here considering the preflop raise size. The 3x UTG tends to be a pretty tight range, and you're way ahead of TT (or any lower pairs) and AK/AQ, and way behind QQ+. You don't have much to worry about in terms of losing the pot, and hitting an ace could win you a big pot against AK/AQ.
I think as played, the decision depends a lot on what she thinks of you. If she thinks you're only betting Jx here, then she might just put in with an overpair thinking you probably call since it looks so strange. If she thinks you're betting wider than that, then she might be trying to push you off something, and I'd be more inclined to call.
I wanted Villain to fold an overcard or two to this board. If Villain has KQ especially I wanted to just take it down.
But if I bet smaller then hands like 77-TT would more likely call. So my bad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpgiro
Pre is good, I'd guess suited AT-AQ almost exclusively calls, your offsuit varieties will 3-bet more often.
On J33, I assume villain doesn't pure bet here in theory OOP, but overpairs will bet quite often (perhaps less with a diamond as they're less worried about protection). Sizing is ok, when villain checks we want to bet somewhat bigger than you'd think to target the pairs between the J and 3 that do a lot of checking.
As played her shove obviously doesn't exist in theory, but if her strategy on this board was purely flat or shove, I'd assume her value would be primarily a little bit of KK, a lot of QQ and AJ. Her bluffs would primarily be hands that contain at least the Ad or Kd and might be weighted towards flush draws. (If she has something like KdQd or Ad5d, doesn't want to risk going check/check on the turn, she might feel justified to play for stacks now.)
Unless you think this is heavily weighted towards value I don't see any reason not to call here.
My thoughts were I thought it could be a bluff. But I did think my call was likely to lose. However, in fairness to the craziness of this tournament I had lost about 3 huge pots and won about 4 already. So I didn't know where I was on the roller coaster.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbiz
honestly maybe she thinks you'd call it off with j10 qj kj which r all things you have feasibly
especially considering she's established a loose spaz image against you historically
here comes the loose spaz doing weird spazzy **** getting paid to the max by top pair
Definitely possible. I really didn't think she would be bluffing much. I thought she could have a flush draw though. But I also thought she wouldn't be doing this with an overpair though in retrospect with an overpair and 33 on the board maybe she wanted me to hit two pair and then get it in. Still I think she would just call the flop and shove my turn bet.